Step-by-Step Technical Analysis for Ethereum (ETH)

1. Chart Structure and Trend Analysis

Longer-Term Daily Trend (March–June 2025)

• Early March to Late April: ETH traded mainly in a broad downward range, capitulating hard into mid-April (low near $1415) before making a significant bottom reversal.
• May’s Rally: ETH then embarked on a dramatic rally from roughly $1810 to a peak of $2825 on June 10th, with multiple legs higher and sharp pullbacks.
• Mid-June to Present: Following that high, ETH experienced a sharp correction (June 13–14), retracing to the low $2400s before stalling and range-trading near $2500. Today, we see extreme intraday volatility, with a hard breakdown to $2374 (17:00), a bounce to $2430, but the price still below the recent support band.

Trend Summary: The previous trend was bullish but the strong correction and failed attempts to reclaim $2500–$2550 area highlight cautious sentiment, short-term bearish pressure, and a risk of another leg down.

2. Support and Resistance

• Immediate Resistance: $2480–$2560 (former support, now acting as resistance after failed reclaim attempts on June 20th).
• Major Resistance Above: $2650–$2680 (bull trap zone before last breakdown on June 12–13).
• Immediate Support: $2415–$2430 (currently being tested). Next key area is around $2370–$2380 (June 20th's intraday spike low), then $2320–$2350 (prior base/floor from mid-May).

Inference: ETH sits on tenuous support; losing $2415 convincingly would open a move towards $2350–$2370.

3. Price Patterns & Market Structure

• Head and Shoulders Top: The price structure from June 9–12 ($2680–$2825 head, $2540–$2580 shoulders) signals a reversal pattern. The neckline, now broken, was around $2540.
• Bearish Engulfing & Large Red Candles: Recent daily candles (e.g., June 13th) and today’s intraday bars are wide and red, showing heavy sell pressure.
• Failed Bounces: Multiple attempts to reclaim $2495–$2510 were rejected intraday, confirming sellers in control.
• Intraday Breakdown: Price sliced through several hourly supports, confirming momentum to the downside. The brief rally to $2493 was sold into just as quickly.

4. Volume Analysis

• Volume Surge on Declines: Highest 24h volumes (e.g., June 17, 13, and 21) coincided with strong selling, confirming distribution and not accumulation.
• Dwindling Volume on Rallies: Countertrend bounces (June 18–19) had muted volume, indicating weak bull interest or short covering.
• Today’s Intraday Volumes: Spikes on declines (>8B on 19:00–21:00 UTC 20/06) suggest continued liquidation and panic selling. Weak volume on rebounds confirms lack of conviction on longs.

5. Moving Averages

• Short-term EMAs (9/21): Given the rapid decline from $2700+, the 9 and 21-period EMAs (especially on 1H/4H) have curled downwards and are near $2480–$2520, acting as dynamic resistance.
• Daily 50/100 MA: The 50-day sits near $2530 (recently breached), and the 100-day is lower around $2450. ETH is decisively below both, reinforcing the bear case.

6. Momentum & Oscillators

• RSI (14) on Daily: Likely near 30–35 (oversold approaching but not yet at extreme fear). No clear positive divergence.
• MACD (12,26,9): Recent bearish crossover, histogram bars declining. Confirms momentum to the downside.
• Stochastic Oscillator: Dipped into oversold territory but no bullish cross yet—favors patience for the next move.

7. Volatility & Market Sentiment

• High Volatility Regime: June’s large daily and hourly ranges (e.g., $2877→$2416 over 72h) signal instability and uncertainty; favorable for breakout or continuation trades.
• Sentiment: Social and orderbook flow (inferred from volume and price action) is risk-off. Orderbook is likely stacked with sell stops below $2400.

8. Fibonacci Levels (from May Low ~$1810 to June High ~$2825)**

• 0.382 Retracement: ~$2440 (just below current price). ETH reacts at this level right now; loss would propel a move to...
• 0.5 Retracement: ~$2315 (lines up with prior base of consolidation).
• 0.618 Retracement: ~$2200 (major psychological level and April/May pivot).

9. Order Flow & Liquidity Zones

• Large Liquidity Cluster: $2350–$2400 has historical trading activity. If current support cracks, expect a swift drop as stops are triggered.
• Orderbook Walls: There are likely resting bids in the $2300–$2350 zone but not strong enough to halt heavy momentum if sellers remain aggressive.

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Final Synthesis & 24H Prediction

• ETH has flipped all key short- and medium-term support levels into resistance.
• Momentum, volume, and price structure all point to prevailing bearishness, with repeated failed attempts to reclaim $2500–$2550 and persistent selling pressure into support retests.
• Pattern completion (H&S top) and cascade through daily MAs reinforce structural damage.
• Risk of a relief bounce exists but will likely be met with more selling, especially if price approaches $2480–$2500.
• High volatility supports potential for an accelerated decline toward the $2350 area within 24 hours, especially if $2415 support is breached with conviction.

Conclusion: The technical outlook is decisively bearish for the next 24 hours. Best risk/reward is on the short side, with a focus on catching continuation toward the $2350–$2370 support region.

Trade Parameters and Execution

• Sell (Short) Entry: On a break and 15–60min close below $2415, or more conservatively on a failed retest of $2450–$2465 after the next minor bounce.
• Stop Loss: Above $2495 (to protect against a bear trap or sharp squeeze).
• Target: $2350, capturing the next liquidity and major support area.

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Summary Table:

Decision	Open Price	Close Price (Target)
Sell	$2429	$2350

Risk Note

Strict stop discipline is required due to high volatility. If $2495+ is reclaimed, step aside—risk of short squeeze increases dramatically.

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