Ethereum Price Analysis Powered by AI

Ethereum (ETH) Set for Another Downleg: Bearish Breakdown Signals $2,100 Retest

Examining the daily candles for the past three months shows that ETH has gone through several high-volatility swings:

Sharp Rise (early May): Explosive rally from $1,800 to $2,800 with massive volume, likely driven by either macro news or ETF speculation.
Distribution Phase (mid-May to early June): A rounded top above $2,600 followed by repeated lower highs ($2,736 on May 13, then $2,721 on May 14) and lower closes signals distribution.
Reversal/Correction (early-mid June): Strong daily red candles with increased volume and lower lows show heavy distribution and capitulation flows (notably June 5 and June 21-22).
Recent price (current close at $2,185): Massive breakdown from above $2,400, cascading to intraday lows around $2,130, marking new local lows. The close was near the bottom of the day's range, showing no meaningful recovery.

From the past 24 1-hour candles:

Consolidation and Breakdown: Between 01:00 and 13:00 UTC, ETH hovered in the $2,260-$2,290 zone. Suddenly, sharp liquidation between 13:00 and 15:00, plunging prices from $2,284 to $2,172 in two hours. This is a classic breakdown from a weak support region.
Attempted Rebounds: Small bounces (to $2,191, $2,194) got sold off, forming lower highs on each attempt.
End of Session: Minor uptick toward $2,185, but the structure is weak; momentum indicators didn't confirm recovery.

Capitulation Spike: On 2025-06-22, volume spiked above $30B. Such a surge, in conjunction with a long red candle, typically signals panic sell-offs, institutional liquidations, or stop losses being triggered.
Lack of Buy Support: No V-shaped reversal or high-volume hammer candle suggests buyers are not stepping in forcefully at this level—bearish signal.

20/50/200 MA (Daily): Daily closes are well below all key MAs. After the May rally, price failed to reclaim the 50-day MA near $2,500 and recently sliced below the 200-day MA around $2,400—a very bearish technical signal.
Short-term EMA (1h): The 9- and 21-period EMAs on hourly have sharply rolled over and are acting as resistance ($2,185-$2,190).

RSI (14): Daily RSI has nosedived to near oversold (around 31-35). Intraday (1h) RSI touched extreme oversold (<22) during the breakdown but is failing to bounce, which indicates persistent downward pressure.
MACD: Both daily and hourly MACD histogram show sustained negativity and deepening bearish crossover, confirming trend strength.

Bearish Engulfing Bar (Daily): June 21-22 forms a two-day bearish engulfing pattern, eliminating previous minor support ranges.
No Hammer/Doji: No candle reversal patterns are present; consolidation is not evident.
Order Block Sweep: The last bid blocks at $2,230-$2,200 were swept, triggering stops and leaving a liquidity vacuum below.

Support Levels: Immediate zone at $2,130 (today's low) and psychological $2,100. Major support is deeper at $2,000 and $1,950 (previous consolidation from March to April).
Resistance: Broken support at $2,240-$2,260 now acts as resistance and potential retest zone for shorts.
Fibo Levels: The 61.8% retracement (from $2,800 high to $1,950 low) sits near $2,275, well above current price.
Measured Move Target: The height of last consolidation ($2,290-$2,200 = $90) projects downside to $2,110–$2,100.

Volatility Spike: Volatility measures have increased sharply, furthering the probability of post-breakdown continuation.
Macro View: No evidence of market-wide bounce. Bitcoin and altcoins show correlated breakdowns. Sentiment is risk-off.

Probability: Trend, volume, structure, and momentum all favor further downside. Brief relief rallies possible—these should be viewed as shorting opportunities until evidence of major reversal appears.
Positioning: Ideal strategy is to wait for a modest bounce to $2,200–$2,210 (prior support, now resistance) and open a short position there, targeting a move to the recent low ($2,130) and potentially extending to $2,050–$2,100 if selling accelerates.