Ethereum Stalls Below $2460: Technical Barriers Signal Short-Term Downside Risk

Step-by-Step Exhaustive ETH Price Analysis

1. Long-Term Price Trend and Context

• April-June Overview: Significant volatility, with ETH plunging to lows near $1400 in early April, then a robust rally throughout May with a peak above $2800 (June 10th-11th), before correcting towards $2400 area in late June.
• Trend Structure: The overall trajectory since April is an uptrend, with higher highs and higher lows visible through May, peaking in early June, but a corrective/consolidation move since mid-June.

2. Recent Price Action

• Last 7 Days: After spiking to $2519 (June 26th), a rejection is seen and price retraces to low $2400s, with intraday attempts at $2462 (June 29, 11:00-12:00 UTC) being sold into.
• Range: ETH shows immediate support around $2410 and resistance at the $2460—$2480 band.
• Volume Profile: Noticeable increase in volume on down days (June 20, 21, 22) implying distribution/strong seller presence. Despite attempts to bounce, upside moves are capped by lower volumes.

3. Short-Term Price Analysis

• Intraday Fluctuations: Looking at the past 24 hours (June 28-29), the price generally oscillates in a tight $2428–$2462 range, repeatedly failing to hold above $2460.
• Candlestick Structure: Frequent upper wicks at highs ($2460-$2462) with closes back below $2440 highlight overhead supply.
• Support/Resistance Levels:
  • Immediate resistance: $2460–$2470
  • Pivot zone: $2435–$2440
  • Support: $2410–$2420

4. Technical Indicators

a. Moving Averages

• 50-Period MA (Daily): Estimated near $2500—recent price action is below this, indicating a short-term bearish tilt.
• 20-Period MA: Estimated at $2445—price is oscillating around this level but struggling to close above it.
• Trend: Price is stuck between declining 50-MA and flat 20-MA, a classic sign of consolidation after a correction.

b. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

• On the Daily: After peaking at overbought levels during early June rally, RSI retraced and is likely hovering between 40-50, consistent with a neutral to slightly bearish momentum.
• Hourly RSI: Recent hourly RSI readings would point toward mid-40s, suggesting neither strongly oversold nor overbought conditions, but a lack of buyer momentum.

c. MACD

• Daily MACD: Has likely crossed bearish in mid-June after the correction, histogram may be narrowing but no bullish crossover is visible yet.
• Intraday MACD: Flat/negative, no signal of strong reversal.

d. Volume Analysis

• Volume Decline: As price oscillates in tight range, volume has gradually declined, classic for a consolidation phase, but with larger spikes on down moves.

5. Patterns and Chart Formations

• Bearish Ascending Triangle: Since June 23 (breakout above $2420) to present, a series of lower highs against flat support (around $2410), a potential ascending triangle with bearish outcome.
• Failed Breakout Attempts: Multiple failed pushes above $2460—each reversal signals strong supply.
• Doji and Spinning Top Patterns: Multiple indecisive candles highlight lack of buyer conviction, often precursors to further downside in a bear phase.

6. Order Book and Market Microstructure (Inference)

• Frequent rejections of $2460-$2465 point to supply clusters (likely resting sell orders). Support appears to be thinning at $2410—any failure here could trigger a faster move to downside.

7. Volatility Assessment

• ATR (Average True Range): Estimated to be falling, with the current 24-hour range roughly $35 (high $2462, low $2427). Lower ATR suggests a potential for volatility expansion after this compression phase.

8. Sentiment & Contextual Factors

• The sustained failure to reclaim key moving averages and the bearish tilt in the momentum indicators support a short bias. The most aggressive buying occurred in May/early June, followed by clear profit-taking and selling.
• Absence of bullish catalysts or volume signals that could indicate renewed buyer interest.
• The macro and altcoin market context (not in data, but typically relevant) also leans cautious post-alt rally parabolic move.

9. Order Strategy: Entry & Exit Rationale

• SELL (Short Position) is the optimal stance.
• Open Price: Ideally, open short as close to $2440–$2442 as possible (intraday bounce zone, nearest to last failed resistance, minimizes risk).
• Target (Take Profit): $2410—reflects the lower range boundary, tested repeatedly as support. If breached, possible cascade to $2380, but $2410 is prudently conservative for 24h outlook.

10. Confluence and Risk Assessment

• Multiple timeframes, indicators, price structure, and volume data align for a cautious-to-negative short-term outlook.
• Stop Loss (implicit): Consider above $2465—the most recent supply cluster and failed high. But per instructions, focus on open/close/target levels.

Conclusion

• Expect price to test $2410 within the next 24 hours as pressure mounts and sellers control the tape. Tight ranges usually precede expansion, and the repeated supply at $2460 is a strong bearish warning.

Final Position: SOLD/SHORT ETH

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If new bullish volume quickly appears or $2465 is solidly reclaimed, this view should be reassessed.