Step-by-Step ETH Technical Analysis – July 9th, 2025

1. Overview and Data Preparation

• Current Price: $2741.04 (as of 2025-07-09T21:01Z)
• Recent 24hr Range: Low ~$2592 | High ~$2794
• Immediate Price Action: Sharp rally from ~2615 to 2794, high volatility, potential upside exhaustion.

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2. Trend Analysis

2.1. Longer-Term (Daily) Trend

• Massive uptrend began mid-June after reaching lows near $2228 on 6/22 and $2300 on 6/21.
• Last 2.5 weeks: Sequence of higher highs and higher lows, small corrections, rapid recoveries. Momentum increased from $2400 up through $2600 to $2740.
• Parabolic price acceleration in past 2 days (from $2543 [7/7] -> $2615 [7/8] -> $2741 [7/9]).

2.2. Short-Term (Intraday)

• 1hr candles: Consolidation at $2660-2670, explosive move at 18:00 UTC to 2794 in 2 hours.
• Strong buying volume,; last hour sees a slight pullback to mid-2740s.

Trend Conclusion: Strong uptrend, momentum peaking intraday.

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3. Support & Resistance Levels

• Support:
  • $2660-2670: Recent breakout area & consolidation zone.
  • $2610: Short-term pivot/last correction low.
  • $2540: Last major consolidation (weekly chart)
• Resistance:
  • $2794: Current daily high and multi-month high (potential double top short-term)
  • Psychological $2800 - round number resistance.

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4. Technical Indicators and Strategies

4.1. Momentum Oscillators

• RSI (Estimated):
  • Extended run-up likely puts daily RSI >75 (overbought range).
  • 1hr RSI likely peaked >80 during the parabolic rally, cooling off in last hour.
• MACD:
  • Daily: Positive and rising, but histogram may print slight bearish divergence vs earlier up-leg.
  • Hourly: Just started to curl over – possible momentum loss, look for histogram peak and cross.

4.2. Moving Averages

• 20/50 EMA (Daily): Price is very extended above short-term averages.
• 200 EMA (Daily): Deeply bullish, but also stretched far from mean – classic post-breakout exhaustion setup.

4.3. Volume Analysis

• Breakout Candle (18:00-19:00): Largest 1hr volume in past two days, indicating possible buying climax or start of new leg.
• Last Hour (20:00-20:59): Down-tick in volume with price nudging against highs – suggests fading momentum.

4.4. Candlestick Patterns

• 19:00–20:00 UTC: Tall wick candle after rapid move – ripe for pullback.
• Current Hour: Inside bar/followed by doji, signals potential indecision and reversal risk at resistance.

4.5. Bollinger Bands

• Price beyond upper band: Current price well above recent volatility expectations; risks mean reversion.

4.6. Fibonacci Retracement (from $2400 to $2794 rally):

• 23.6%: ~$2690
• 38.2%: ~$2625
• These act as natural retracement zones if pullback deepens.

4.7. Elliott Wave Perspective

• This may mark end of wave 3 up on intraday scale, with corrective wave 4 lower before possible new highs.

4.8. Market Sentiment & Pattern Recognition

• Parabolic rallies tend to end with sharp volume spikes and distribution candles.
• No new news catalyzing – rally likely technical, driven by breakout traders and short covering.
• Sell the news or short-term speculative excess appears likely after such vertical moves.

4.9. Volatility Metrics

• Implied + realized volatility are both high; next 24h could see sharp swings (likely >4-6% range)

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5. Decision Matrix

• Technical signals (overbought, accelerated, volume surge): High risk of short-term pullback from $2740 zone.
• Support ~2660-2690, resistance at 2790-2800.
• Risk/Reward: After a $120+ move up, reward for new longs is poor; countertrend short is preferred with tight stop above highs.

6. Prediction — Next 24h Price Action

• Primary Scenario: ETH likely pulls back from 2740-2790 to test support at $2660-2690 (potentially lower, max $2620).
• If breakdown deepens: Potential spike as low as $2610-2620 before rebounding; sharp dips likely bought quickly due to longer-term uptrend.
• If new highs break (>2800): Short squeeze can target $2850-2900, but probability <30% near-term, given signs of exhaustion.

7. Trading Plan

• SELL/Short Bias: Favor opening a short near current resistance, target retracement to $2665 with conservative stop above previous high.
• Entry (Open Price): $2745 (slightly above current for small pop).
• Exit (Close Price): $2665 (at key support / fib zone).

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8. Summary Conclusion

Ethereum just completed a high-velocity rally, stretching intraday momentum and printing overbought signals. While the longer-term trend remains bullish, the technical setup favors a short-term pullback to mean – presenting a good risk/reward short trade at current overextended levels. A reversal to $2665 is likely within 24 hours before the uptrend resumes. Only aggressive buyers should chase here, with more prudent traders standing aside or shorting for the pullback.