Step-By-Step Exhaustive ETH Technical Analysis (as of 2025-07-12 at $2919.73)

1. Price Action & Trend Analysis

A. Higher Time Frame (Daily to Weekly Structure)

• From early April ($1600s), ETH staged a powerful uptrend.
• The most prominent move started around May 8: price surged from ~$1800, breaking $2200 resistance on substantial uptick in volume. Parabolic rally peaked on July 11 at $3038.
• Since then, price action in July shows a pullback after overextension: High on July 11 near $3038, then lower highs throughout July 12, closing $2919.73.
• Current price ($2919.73) rests just below the recent swing high zone ($2950 – $2980), now acting as resistance.

B. Short-Term Trend (Hourly to Four-Hour)

• Intraday, ETH attempted several pushes to $2980–$2979 but repeatedly failed. Each time, sellers appear, leading to a series of lower highs.
• In the past 24 hours, after touching near $2980, ETH slipped below $2940, then recovered briefly before an accelerated drop to $2919 in the last two hours.

C. Candle Structure/Pattern

• Multiple upper wicks on hourly and four-hour indicate failed attempts to break higher (supply absorption, profit-taking ongoing).
• The last 4 hourly candles show successive lower closes: clear micro-downtrend within a broader bullish context.

2. Volume Analysis

• Volume decreased after July 11 high (~$3038): classic volume climax on parabolic highs signaling distribution.
• Last two hourly candles coincide with an uptick in volume on red candles (bearish): Large sell volumes at $2940, $2921 as bulls lose strength.

3. Moving Averages

• 50-period MA (hourly): Estimated around $2960–$2970, price now below, suggesting short-term weakness.
• 200-period MA (hourly): Estimated $2890–$2910 and rising; price is about to retest this dynamic support.
• EMA Crosses: Recent hourly EMA crosses (20/50) signal bearish momentum shift; but 4H EMAs remain bullish from mid-June surge.

4. Bollinger Bands

• Bands widened significantly post-July 9 rally; currently, price is at or marginally below the midline (basis), with lower band support around $2890–$2910.
• Squeeze–expansion–pullback sequence: Now entering consolidation after outsized move.
• Compression expected within next day as volatility resets.

5. RSI & Momentum Oscillators

• RSI (14, hourly): Has dropped from 78 (overbought) on July 11 to current region ~44–48 (neutral–mildly bearish).
• No classic bullish divergence yet observed on 1H or 4H. Risk of further RSI compression unless price sharply recovers.

6. MACD

• Hourly MACD: Bearish crossover post-$2980, histogram ticking downwards, signal line below zero axis: momentum to downside is confirmed.
• 4H MACD: Still positive but losing momentum — bearish histogram building, potential higher time frame momentum cross if price fails to reclaim $2950+ soon.

7. Fibonacci Retracements

• From July 1 swing low (~$2406) to July 11 swing high ($3038):
  • 23.6% retrace: $2886
  • 38.2% retrace: $2780
  • 50% retrace: $2722
  • 61.8% retrace: $2664
• Current price is hovering just above the 23.6% retracement ($2886), a key first-line support.
• Deeper retracement highly possible if $2910 gives way, with $2780 as the next substantial support.

8. Support & Resistance

• Immediate resistance: $2950–$2980 (recent highs, prior intraday supply)
• Next resistance: $3038 (all-time local high)
• Key support: $2910 (minor), $2886 (Fibo), $2840 (previous consolidation), $2780–$2720 (major Fibo/congestion)

9. Chart Patterns

• No clear reversal bottoming setup here yet; ongoing pattern resembles a local double top (near $2975–$2980 and $2979–$2983) with a breakdown under $2920.
• Potential for bull flag IF buyers regain $2950. At present, looks more like a swing high followed by distributive correction.

10. Order Flow, Liquidity, and Sentiment

• Elevated open interest and volumes prior to July 11 suggest speculation/fomo.
• Now, market is digesting the move; long positions are at risk of shakeout below $2910–$2880.
• Sentiment cooled off post-climax rally; derivatives positioning likely reducing.

11. Volatility Analysis (ATR)

• Hourly ATR spiked to above $40 during the rally; now retreated to ~$20–$25 per hour, showing volatility contraction and range-bound conditions.
• Sharp moves likely if major support ($2880) is breached on volume.

12. Elliott Wave Perspective

• Strong primary impulse from July 1 ($2406) to July 11 ($3038) is likely a 3rd wave; current retracement may be a wave 4. Typical wave 4 pullbacks reach 23.6% to 38.2% Fibo ($2886–$2780) before the final 5th wave push.

13. Cyclical and Statistical Techniques

• Historically, after such explosive 20%+ runs, ETH tends to consolidate or correct 7–14% over 2–4 days before resuming/upthrust or breaking down. Thus, further sideways/tactical pullback is expected near-term.

14. Composite Conclusion

• The current price at $2919.73 is below crucial resistance, showing a clear rejection of $2980 several times.
• All short-term signals point to further downside/consolidation pressure. Buyers have not yet stepped in with conviction to defend $2910. The next major liquidity pool is $2886 (23.6% Fibo, prior ledge).
• If $2910 fails decisively, highly likely ETH will test $2886, possibly as deep as $2840 or $2780 in an overshoot scenario before buyers return.
• Only a swift recovery above $2950–$2970, held on strong volume, would negate this near-term bearish bias.

EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS: Price to dip toward $2886 (with risk to $2840–$2780 if momentum accelerates), then potentially find support and consolidate. Upside is capped below $2950 resistance until proven otherwise.

Recommendation

Given the technical setup, short-term momentum, and failure to regain higher levels, the optimal play is a tactical Sell (Short Position) entry just below breakdown point for a high reward/risk.

Optimal Sell Entry:

• Open at $2920–$2925 (just below breakdown candles, after confirming support loss and minimizing whipsaw risk)

Profit Target/Take-Profit:

• $2886 (23.6% retrace, first strong support)
• Stretch target: $2840 (February/March congestion zone) – for aggressive traders

Sell Confirmation: Do NOT open new longs until $2950 is reclaimed and flips to support with strong volume.

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