Step-by-Step Technical Analysis of Ethereum (ETH)

1. Long-Term Trend Assessment (Daily Data)

Context: Since mid-April 2025, ETH has been in a steady uptrend, confirmed by higher highs and higher lows, with a parabolic price expansion from around $1,600 in April to the current $3,000+ level in July.

• Breakout Phase: Major resistance breakthroughs occurred between May 8 and May 10, where price surged from ~$1,800 to ~$2,600. Since then, pullbacks were followed by consolidation, each time pushing higher.
• Most Recent Expansion: July 9/10 marked another acceleration, with price rallying from ~$2,600 to ~$3,000+ in a matter of days.

Interpretation: This is a well-established bull market phase, with the chart showing both impulsive rallies and healthy pullbacks.

2. Recent Price Action & Microtrends (Hourly Data)

• Short-Term High: On July 14, ETH spiked as high as $3,075 (10:00 UTC), then pulled back to a close just above $3,008.
• Range-Bound Movement: After peaking, there was a decline to ~$2,985 at 18:00 before bouncing back to ~$3,008. This suggests short-term profit-taking but no aggressive reversal.
• Volatility: Intraday moves have ranged 2-3%, with a sharp uptick in volume particularly on upward moves, signaling institutional participation.

3. Candlestick Patterns & Reversal Signals

• July 14 (hourly): Several upper wicks after $3,050+ indicate sellers stepping in, but no engulfing bearish patterns. The last hourly candles (19:00–21:00) show consolidation with smaller bodies, signaling a pause rather than reversal.
• Daily Candles: Recent daily candles have not formed bearish engulfing or shooting star patterns—bullish momentum remains dominant.

4. Technical Indicators & Oscillators

a. Moving Averages:

• 21 EMA (Estimated ~$2,850): Price sits comfortably above the 21-period EMA, often a dynamic support in strong trends.
• 50/100/200 EMAs: All trending upward, with price significantly above all primary moving averages, confirming the bull structure.

b. RSI (Relative Strength Index):

• Current Estimated RSI (1H/4H): Likely near 70, indicating overbought conditions but not yet signaling divergence.
• No Bearish Divergence: Price and RSI both making higher highs: risk of short-term consolidation but no classic sell signal.

c. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):

• Bullish crossovers persist; histogram shows slowing momentum which hints at a possible minor retracement, but the larger trend remains up.

d. Volume/OBV (On-Balance Volume):

• Volume surges on upswings; OBV confirms accumulation rather than distribution.

5. Support / Resistance Levels

• Immediate Resistance: $3,075–$3,100 (today’s high and psychological level)
• Minor Support: $2,950–$3,000 (recent consolidation zone and round number support)
• Major Support: $2,850 (recent breakout level and EMA cluster zone)
• Major Resistance/Fibonacci: No historical supply above, but short-term targets for extensions: $3,120, $3,260, $3,500 (using Fibonacci expansions from recent waveform)

6. Chart Patterns

• Ascending Channel: Hourly/daily data show a developing ascending channel since July 1. Price near the upper band suggests possible short-term pause, but the trend channel remains intact.
• No Head & Shoulders or Double Top: No clear reversal pattern.
• Bull Flag / Pennant: Recent hourly compression after the spike looks like a developing bull pennant.

7. Trend Strength & Volatility Metrics

• ATR (Average True Range) Increasing: Supports conclusion of a trending, energetic market.
• No abnormal volatility spikes downward, which would signal bull market exhaustion.

8. Order Flow and Liquidation Traps

• No major stop-run or flash dump visible at highs: Buying pressure remains sustainable.
• Shorts Liquidated: Recent squeezes above resistance imply trapped shorts fueling order flow higher.

9. Sentiment & Market Context

• Momentum: Strong. No sign of dramatic retail FOMO yet; volume is high but not euphoric.
• Correlated assets (BTC, general crypto market): Presumed bullish (based on overall pattern), which supports ETH upside.

10. Summary Table

Tool/Indicator	Reading	Implication
Price trend	Upward, higher highs/lows	Bullish
Moving averages	All rising, price above all	Strong bull trend
RSI	67–72	Slightly overbought
MACD	Bullish, waning histogram	Bullish, slight pause possible
Candle patterns	Doji/Small body consolidation	Pause, not reversal
OBV/Volume	Climbing on upswings	Accumulation continues
Market structure	Ascending channel, no reversal	Long bias favored
Support	$2,950/$3,000	Buy-the-dip zones
Resistance	$3,075–$3,100	Next breakout zone

11. Price Prediction for Next 24 Hours

• Scenario 1 – Base Case (~65% likelihood): Price consolidates $3,000–$3,050 before a breakout to $3,120–$3,150 as the bull flag resolves upward.
• Scenario 2 – Short-term Dip (~25%): Minor dip toward $2,950 (tested support), quickly bought up for a new high.
• Scenario 3 – Sudden Reversal (~10%): Only if high-volume BTC dump or macro surprise; not currently supported by this chart.

Optimal Entry Strategy:

• Buy on a retest/weakness toward $3,000 for best R:R, or on close above $3,075 for breakout confirmation.
• Tight stops below $2,950 for risk management.

12. Conclusion & Decision

All technical factors (trend, volume, chart pattern, momentum) are in alignment for continued bullish price action in ETH over the next 24 hours.

• Decision: Buy (Long position).
• Optimal Open Price: $3,000 (buy on minor weakness/consolidation or pullback).
• Target Price to Close: $3,120 (next measured move, just above current resistance for take-profit).

Downside risk is limited by robust support at $2,950, with clear upward momentum indicating high odds for another upward break. If momentum accelerates, $3,260 could become viable, but $3,120–$3,150 should be used as a first congestion/take-profit zone.