Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis – As of July 15, 2025

1. Macro Trend Analysis (Daily Timeframe)

Trend & Moving Averages

• 200-day MA (approx.): Examining the price action, ETH's price crossed the 2000-2600 range decisively in late June, now trading above all major moving averages.
• 50-day MA: Aggressively upward since breaking the $2600 resistance; the slope is steep, indicating strong bullish momentum.
• 20-day EMA: The last 20 closes form a powerful uptrend from $2500 → $3040, validating short-term positive sentiment.

Price Structure

• Higher Highs & Higher Lows: After the consolidation at 2400-2550, ETH exploded above $2700 (July 9th), creating a pronounced impulsive wave.
• July 10-15th: Large green candles with higher volume, peaking momentarily at $3095 (intraday), followed by modest retracement—typical for a breakout retest scenario.

2. Volume Analysis

• Accumulation/Distribution: Surges in volume on up days, especially July 10, 14, and 15, signal strong accumulation rather than distribution.
• No major spikes on down days: Dips are handled by buyers swiftly, seen intraday and daily.

3. Momentum Indicators

RSI (Daily & Hourly):

• Daily RSI: Estimated ≈72 (overbought but not extreme), normal for strong bull legs.
• Hourly RSI: Brief intraday overbought readings (85+) when price broke over $3070, followed by minor cooling-off, now around 62–65, not yet exhausted.

MACD (Daily):

• Bullish divergence since early July. Histogram continues to expand upward. Signal line is well below the rapidly climbing MACD line.

4. Pattern Analysis

Recent Breakouts:

• Cup-and-Handle: From late June to July 10, a classic cup and handle forms, breakout triggers on July 10 ($2770→$2995) and the handle forms a modest downward flag, which is now resolved upward.
• Bullish Flag/Pennant (Intraday 13–15 July): Brief consolidation ($2950–$3040) appears as a textbook flag, with breakout above $3040 attempted intraday.

5. Support & Resistance

Immediate Resistance:

• $3095 (Intraday High July 15) – Key resistance, selling pressure appeared here. Next major resistance likely at $3200–3250 (psychological, round number, and historical zone).
• $3065–3095 – Minor resistance with notable wicks/rejection.

Immediate Support:

• $3010–3040 – Recent consolidation area, now acting as support.
• $2970 – Handle base from recent breakout pattern, deeper support at $2900 (last significant base).

6. Fibonacci Retracements (Swing Low $2405 [July 1] → Swing High $3095 [July 15])

• 0.236: $2924
• 0.382: $2827
• 0.5: $2750
• Current price ($3043) is well above all retracement levels, indicating extended bullishness. Any pullback to $2970-3010 would be seen as healthy and likely met by buyers.

7. Volatility & ATR

• 14-Day ATR: Elevated (relative to May/June), suggesting strong trend and greater amplitude in daily swings. Last two weeks’ daily ranges are $50–$120, so traders should expect high volatility, particularly around resistance breaks.

8. Order Flow & Volume Profile

• Clustered volume between $2970–$3010: Reflects buyer commitment post-breakout; big accumulations above $3000 slashed any significant overhead supply.
• Low volume above $3095: Price discovery likely if $3095 is taken convincingly, potentially accelerating to $3200.

9. On-Chain & Fundamental Context (if referenced)

• While not in provided data, bull moves often correlate with ecosystem news, ETF flows, or protocol upgrades. Given current price action and volume, institutional activity is likely.

10. Intraday Dynamics (Hourly Data for July 15th)

• Volatility spikes 17:00–19:00 (UTC): Price attempts $3095 twice, last rejection at $3095 led to $3043.
• The last hour: "Doji"-like session (Open = High = Low = Close = $3043.83) signals market indecision—a classic precursor for another trend move after consolidation.

Synthesis & Conclusion

• Trend: Strong uptrend, confirmed on both daily and hourly charts.
• Momentum: High but not technically exhausted—pullbacks are shallow and bought quickly.
• Pattern: Cup and handle resolved bullishly; current consolidation likely a launchpad above recent highs.
• Volume: Institutional inflow appears ongoing, with no major selling during micro-corrections.
• Risk: A break below $2970–$3010 could trigger deeper retracement (next support $2900, then $2820), but risk is skewed to upside as long as $3010 holds.

24-Hour Price Prediction

• Base Case: ETH is highly likely to retest and potentially break $3095 within the next session.
• If $3095 is broken and held for 2+ hours, extension to $3200 is possible as late shorts cover and FOMO builds.
• If $3010 support fails, $2970 and then $2900 are potential dip-buys for aggressive bulls.

Trade Plan

• Decision: Buy (Long).
• Open Price: Wait for confirmation – optimal entry at $3045–$3050 (above post-close consolidation, but below $3095 resistance), or buy any dip in the $3010–$3030 support range.
• Target/Take Profit: $3185 (ahead of $3200 psychological resistance, allowing for front-running major take-profit flows).

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Summary: The overall structure, momentum, volume profile, and lack of meaningful overhead supply all point to a prevailing bull trend. $3010–$3040 is a battleground support; as long as it holds, the risk/reward distinctly favors long positions targeting $3185.

Risk note: A break and close below $2970 would invalidate the immediate bullish thesis. Use stops accordingly. Expect volatility around breakouts!