Step 1: Chart Pattern and Trend Analysis

Daily Trend Analysis

Examining the daily timeframes, Ethereum has risen from a low near $1,580 (mid-April) to a high just above $3,400 in July, covering a period of about three months. The larger macrotrend is unmistakably bullish, with multiple breakouts and higher highs. Notable acceleration points include:

• April 22: Major green candle, price jumps to ~$1,750 with a volume spike, indicating big player participation and a reversal from consolidation.
• May 8-10: Breakout to $2,600, another surge in volume and momentum, indicating strong bullish conviction.
• July 9-16: Parabolic rally, with price plowing through $2,600, $2,800, $3,100 and now $3,384—many of these moves came with high volume and minimal retracement, indicative of FOMO, programmatic trading, and institutional buyers.

Short-Term (Hourly) Trend Analysis

Observing the provided hourly candles for July 16:

• The trend for the past 24 hours has been a nearly uninterrupted stair-step rally: $3,140 at midnight up to $3,384 as of the latest print.
• No decisive bearish reversal candles have yet emerged; each pullback is shallow and is followed by strong buying.
• Volume on the last upward thrust ($3,300 → $3,400) is substantial, confirming the move.

Step 2: Technical Indicators Analysis

Moving Averages (MA)

• 20-hour and 50-hour MA (not explicitly shown, but interpolated from price action): Both are far beneath the current price, confirming an over-extended (but very bullish) trend. No signs of mean reversion or crossovers.
• 200-hour MA: Left far behind near $3,050–$3,100, illustrating just how quickly and strongly momentum has taken over.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

• RSI can be estimated from the current aggressive price move. The vertical surge from $3,000 to $3,384 within 24 hours would likely put the hourly (and even four-hour) RSI well-above 80—classic overbought region.

MACD

• MACD on the hourly and 4H likely shows wide divergence, with histogram bars increasingly positive. No sign of MACD line crossing below signal yet; this reflects continued upside dominance.

Volume Profile

• Massive surge in volume as price exceeded previous highs around $3,100–$3,200. No major selling volume detected yet, suggesting buyers are still in control.

Candlestick Patterns

• The last few hourly candles are almost all bullish or bullish continuation (long body, small wicks). No pin bar/shooting star or dark cloud cover to indicate imminent reversal.

Step 3: Support/Resistance & Price Structure

Support Levels

• $3,250: Brief consolidation area
• $3,000–$3,100: Prior resistance, now support

Resistance Levels

• Immediate resistance is psychological at $3,500
• No prior historical resistance in this territory (ATH territory), but psychological levels: $3,400, $3,500

Step 4: Momentum and Sentiment Analysis

• Market is in a FOMO phase—strong price and volume expansion with little retrace.
• No bullish exhaustion yet on volume, each breakout is supported by fresh buyer strength.
• While RSI/oscillators suggest overbought, parabolic rallies can stay overbought much longer than typical traders expect; shorting into pure momentum is generally not profitable.

Step 5: Volatility Assessment

• Daily volatility has expanded: The last day’s range is almost $300, nearly 10% relative to the starting price.
• This expansion usually precedes a blow-off top, but a final surge (climactic move) is often seen.
• Tight stop losses on either side are advised—but current conditions favor trend continuation breakouts.

Step 6: Event/Risk Calendar

• No explicit news in the dataset, but a move of this scale could be driven by broader crypto bullish sentiment, ETF hope, or Ethereum-specific fundamental drivers.

Step 7: Combining All Techniques—Summary and Decision

• Macro, micro, and volume trends are all strongly bullish
• RSI/oscillators indicate short-term overbought, but in a parabolic/final-stage advance, this is a weak reversal signal
• Price is very far above MAs, but this alone does not guarantee imminent reversal
• No bear divergences or topping candlesticks on hourly chart
• Last resistance broken at $3,100–$3,200, no serious supply until $3,500 psychological level
• Caution: After such a sharp run, corrections can be fast and vicious, but fade-in buyers almost always get one more push before that occurs
• Overall, optimal risk-reward is to join the trend, not fade it, but utilize trailing stops aggressively

Final Recommendation

Decision: Buy (Long)

Optimal Entry: A retracement towards immediate support (e.g., $3,340–$3,360) is best to catch any intra-hour profit taking, but there’s a strong risk price simply continues surging. Entry at/under $3,360 is advised. Profit Target: $3,480–$3,500 area (next psychological resistance; expect sellers to appear here).