Step 1: Price Structure & Trend Identification

Long-Term Trend Analysis (April–July 2025)

• Major Uptrend: ETH surged from ~$1,800 (late April) to a recent high near $3,856 (July 21–24).
• Acceleration Phase: Notably, the price began a stark acceleration after May 8, confirmed by strong bullish candles above $2,200 (massive volume, signals institutional flows).
• Recent Volatility: The last week shows huge daily swings (Jul 20 high: $3,819; Jul 23 low: $3,532), with intraday tails indicating aggressive dip buying.

Short-Term Trend & Consolidation

• Current Price: $3,739.49 (near the top end of today's range), up from yesterday’s low of ~$3,532, rebounding after a correction.
• Stronger Intraday Recovery: After retracing from recent highs, buyers stepped in above $3,520–$3,600 multiple times in the last 24 hours, forming higher intraday lows.
• Volume Surge: July 24 volume is very high, reflecting both profit-taking from recent highs and fresh bullish absorption.

Step 2: Key Technical Indicators

Moving Averages

• 200-Day MA (Estimated): Trailing around the $2,400–$2,800 range (well below current price), confirming a strong bullish regime.
• 50-Day MA (Estimated): $3,100–$3,300, also below current price, reinforcing medium-term uptrend.
• 10–20 Day EMA: Estimated $3,500–$3,650, recent bounces are holding above this range, typical in bullish consolidations.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

• Estimated on 1D: RSI likely 70+ after such a parabolic run, recent pullbacks suggest a reset near 60–65 and likely expanding again after bounce off the $3,530–$3,600 area.

MACD

• Daily & 4H Charts: Strongly positive, with potential minor bearish cross last session (due to brief correction), but histogram likely flattening as price stabilizes.

Bollinger Bands

• Daily: ETH recently broke upper Bollinger Band during the run-up, pulled back to median band (around $3,600), now hugging the upper band again—a sign of trending bullish continuation.
• 4H Chart: Bandwidth expanding—a hallmark of high volatility bull move.

Volume Profile & Order Flow

• Climactic Volumes: Big spikes in volume at every meaningful breakout ($2,800, $3,200, $3,500), minimal sign of distribution.
• Current Session: High-volume node forms near $3,730, acting as a local pivot.

Step 3: Price Action, Demand Zones & Candlestick Analysis

• Messy Wick Structure in $3,500–$3,700: Buyers repeatedly defend this zone; little time spent below $3,600 in last eight sessions despite volatility.
• Long Lower Shadows: On both daily and 4H candles—reflects persistent buying on dips. Today's candle likely closes near session highs (bullish engulfing after shallow correction).
• Prior Correction: Quick, sharp dip toward $3,530–$3,570 filled swiftly—classic sign of running stop losses before resuming uptrends.

Step 4: Fibonacci Levels from Major Leg ($1,800–$3,856)

• Key Retracements:
  • 23.6%: ~$3,368
  • 38.2%: ~$3,009
  • 50%: ~$2,828
• Current Position: Holding well above the 23.6% retracement. Shallow retraces plus immediate recovery = strong trend.

Step 5: Chart Patterns & Market Psychology

• Ascending Triangle Breakout (Earlier July): Violently resolved to the upside, price has consolidated in a high flag above the new range, suggesting continuation.
• Potential Bull Flag: Recent week’s chop between $3,530–$3,850 forms a flag above the prior breakout zone (between $3,100–$3,500). Measured move target: $3,900+.
• Volume at Highs: No climax topping or blow-off yet; profit-taking offset by new demand.

Step 6: Support & Resistance Mapping

• Immediate Support:
  • $3,520–$3,570 (multiple intraday rejections)
  • $3,350 (Fibonacci 23.6%)
• Immediate Resistance:
  • $3,800–$3,860 (recent swing highs)
  • $4,000+ (psychological round number, measured move area)

Step 7: Volatility Metrics & Risk Analysis

• ATR (Average True Range): Estimated ~ $150–$175+/day; wide daily intraday swings but directional trend persists.
• Market Context: Recent strength comes in a high liquidity environment (recorded multi-billion dollar sessions, likely institutional FOMO).

Step 8: Confluence & Probabilistic Summary

• Primary Factors for Bull Bias:
  • Breakout > $3,500 is being respected/defended.
  • Strong RSI, no meaningful divergence yet.
  • High volume on breakouts, low volume on pullbacks.
  • Flags and shallow corrections, hinting at further upside.
• Short-Term Risks:
  • Minor overextension may spark another quick retest to $3,600–$3,650, but demand is dominant.
  • Only a close well below $3,520 would threaten this bullish outlook.

Step 9: 24H Price Prediction and Trading Plan

• Expected Move (Next 24H): ETH likely to challenge and potentially break $3,800–$3,860 in a renewed bullish leg. Pullbacks toward $3,690–$3,710 likely find buyers.
• Setup:
  • Look to accumulate (open long) near current price or on minor dip to $3,720.
  • Target breakout above last highs: aim for $3,860–$3,900 (measured move and next round number magnets).
  • Tight risk management: place stops below $3,600 (last major defended correction).

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Conclusion: All multi-timeframe signals point to continued bullish momentum, with high-probability push above $3,800 imminent. Favor a BUY (LONG) position, entering near $3,720–$3,740 for an upside play to $3,880.

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Summary Table | Technical Bull Thesis

Indicator	Signal	Notes
Trend Structure	Bullish	Strong higher highs/lows, shallow corrections
Moving Averages	Bullish	Above 20/50/200 DMA, positive slope
Volume Profile	Bullish	Rising volume, bullish absorption, HVP at $3,730
RSI	Overboughtish	Bullish, no divergence, signals trend strength
Fibonacci	Supports run	Shallow retrace, holding above key levels
Candlestick Patterns	Bullish	Long lower wicks, high closes
Chart Patterns	Bullish Flag	Flag on top of breakout range
Risk	Manageable	As long as $3,520 holds, risk is to upside (trend resumes)

Final Decision: BUY/Long ETH at $3,730–$3,740, targeting $3,880 in next 24H.