Ethereum (ETH) Technical & Trading Analysis — 2025-07-29

1. Long-Term Context: Macro Trend Analysis

Price Trajectory (Daily)

• Early May–Mid June: ETH entered a prolonged accumulation phase between $1,800 and $2,700 with repeated, well-supported pullbacks and local resistance flips.
• Mid–Late June: Note the capitulation around June 21-22 with a low near $2,116, followed by an immediate high-volume V-shape reversal — classic sign of a bear trap and institutional accumulation.
• Early–Mid July: Powerful breakout above $2,800, acceleration above $3,000, then a measured leg up to $3,500–$3,800. Trend is clearly bullish on the large timeframe (higher highs, higher lows, sustained volume).

2. Intermediate-Timeframe View (7/15–7/29)

• Major Impulse: July 15–July 21, ETH soared from $3,139 to $3,759 (+20%) on strong, rising volume.
• Current Structure: Since then, price has ranged between $3,600–$3,880 with rapid intraday swings (heightened volatility, likely driven by profit-taking and shorter-term speculative flows).

3. Recent Price Behavior and Volatility (Hourly, Last 48h)

• Volatility Expansion: Last 24h saw multiple $60–110 swings per hour. July 28 swing high was $3,876; current price is $3763.12 (with intermediate higher-low at $3,733 on July 29 16:00).
• Intraday Pattern (July 28–29):
  • Two rallies into resistance ($3850–$3875), each followed by moderate retracement: indicating strong supply above $3,850.
  • Intraday higher lows, no breakdown below $3,720, repeated recoveries — bulls are buying dips.

4. Technical Indicators

• Moving Averages:
  • 20 EMA (approx): $3,770 (recent consolidation just below this average suggests hesitancy, but not a confirmed breakdown)
  • 50 EMA (approx): $3,693 (serves as trend-defining support; not violated)
• RSI (estimated):
  • After prior overbought readings (>75) during the breakout, RSI is now cooling in the 56–62 zone (neutral-bullish, room for another upside push).
• MACD (visual estimate):
  • Still above signal line, but histogram declining — possible short-term consolidation.
• Volume Profile: Sharp increases on rallies over $3,700 and $3,800, but volume tapers off near $3,880 — clear sign of large limit selling above this level.

5. Key Support & Resistance Levels

• Immediate Support: $3,720–$3,740 (last two intraday bounces)
• Major Support (Daily): $3,550–$3,600 (previous breakout zone)
• Immediate Resistance: $3,840–$3,880 (multiple hourly rejections, block selling)
• Macro Resistance: $3,950–$4,000 (psychological milestone, previous all-time-high sellers likely re-entering)

6. Chart Patterns & Price Action

• Pattern: Emerging ascending triangle (higher lows, flat resistance near $3,875).
  • Bullish pattern, increases odds of breakout if tested again soon.
• Wick Rejections: Clear rejections above $3,870, showing short-term supply, but quick recoveries from dips illustrate underlying buying pressure.

7. Orderbook & Liquidity (auction zones, extrapolated from volume)

• Buyers: Aggressive buying clusters at $3,740 and $3,760 (seen in swift reversals on hourly candles).
• Sellers: Large offers sitting above $3,850–$3,880; expectation for sell walls to thin out if invalidated.

8. Elliott Wave & Fib Extensions

• Elliott Perspective: Wave 3 of an impulsive advance likely completed at $3,876, with current activity possibly Wave 4 (shallow retracement). Next, Wave 5 target can reach $3,950–$4,050.
• Fib Extensions:
  • 1.618 extension (of June rally): $3,950
  • 2.0 extension: $4,180
• Given volume and trend, market is positioned for another wave, but short-term pullbacks possible.

9. Momentum & Sentiment

• Momentum: Slight pause but higher lows persist, indicating shakeout of weaker hands before another bullish move.
• Sentiment: Social and derivative sentiment (not explicitly given, but inferred from price character) is moderately euphoric, suggesting a local correction could follow a breakout.

10. Risk Analysis: Potential Scenarios

Bullish Scenario (primary):

• Another probe of $3,850–$3,880 likely.
• Break/hold above $3,880 triggers hunt for $3,950 to $4,050 rapidly (FOMO, short-covering squeeze).

Bearish Scenario (secondary/protective):

• Failure to hold $3,720 support prompts a dip toward $3,600 macro support.
• Deep correction unlikely unless macro risk-off events occur (none apparent from chart alone).

11. Trading Strategy & Execution

• Trend is bullish. Dips into $3,740–$3,760 have consistently been bought over the past ~36 hours.
• Optimal Buy Zone: Aiming for a slight retracement toward $3,740–$3,750 maximizes risk/reward; risk stops below $3,720.
• Targets:
  • 1st TP: $3,880 (key resistance test / scalp)
  • 2nd TP: $3,950 (macro resistance, aligns with major Fib extension)
  • Stretch Target: $4,000–$4,050 (psychological / post-breakout acceleration)

Given the high-probability bullish setup, strong uptrend, higher lows, sustained volume, and emerging bullish consolidation patterns, a high-conviction Buy (Long) is warranted on a retracement entry.

12. Decision & Prices

• Buy Zone (Open Price): $3,750 (slight pullback entry above key supports, in line with recent buyer absorption zones)
• Profit Target (Close Price): $3,950 (de-risk at the next major resistance/Fib extension, with opportunity to scale partial profits higher if breakout accelerates).

Final verdict: ETH remains in a multi-week uptrend with bullish continuation patterns and supportive volume structure. The setup strongly favors buying the dip for a move to $3,950, with manageable risk below $3,720. Monitoring for breakout momentum and managing trailing stops recommended for active traders.