Exhaustive Technical Analysis for Ethereum (ETH) – July 31, 2025

1. Trend Analysis (Multi-Timeframe)

• Daily/Medium-Term:
  • Since early May, ETH has undergone a substantial uptrend, rallying from ~$1,800 to nearly $3,900 (+100%) in less than three months.
  • Major upward accelerations occurred from early July (~2,400) to mid-July (>3,100), then to a peak near $3,940 on July 28-29.
  • After the latest high, the last three days show increased volatility and evident stalling in upward momentum.
• Hourly/Short-Term:
  • ETH traded above $3,800 most of July 31, but during the last hours, we see persistent lower highs and increased selling pressure after $3,850 failed to break higher.
  • Strong support formed around $3,735 and recent hourly closes consistently touch this level, showing a potential pivot area.

2. Volume Analysis & Order Flow

• Observation:
  • July 28-29 (peak): Near $35B in daily volume, suggesting a climactic move, typically associated with blowoff tops and potential exhaustion.
  • Recent hours: High and rising sell volume on the drops to $3,736. Large volume spikes correspond to downward candles (e.g., 17:00 - 20:00 UTC July 31), signaling distribution.

3. Candle Pattern Analysis

• Daily:
  • July 29-31: Notable wicks to the upside but close near or below open; indicative of failed follow-through by bulls (spinning tops, dojis).
  • Consolidation/Distribution structure emerging after extended uptrend.
• Intraday:
  • Series of red candles and lower highs, with no strong reversal wick yet, suggesting buyers are not stepping in aggressively.

4. Price Action & Support/Resistance

• Key Resistance:
  • $3,850–$3,880: Multiple failed hourly closes above this zone.
  • $3,900–$3,940: July’s top and a psychological barrier.
• Key Support:
  • $3,715–$3,735: Range of multiple hourly bounces and current trade.
  • $3,650: Next visible support from prior consolidation.
  • $3,540: Below here, breakdown would confirm a short-term trend reversal.

5. Technical Indicators

• RSI:
  • Daily RSI: Approaching overbought territory (~70–75). Peaks in RSI coincide with previous pullbacks in this uptrend cycle.
  • Hourly/4H RSI: Shows sharp divergence: price made higher highs (July 28/29), while RSI made lower highs. Typical bearish divergence, suggesting waning momentum.
• MACD:
  • Daily MACD: Bullish but histogram shrinking, signal lines converging—potential cross soon.
  • Lower Timeframes: Bearish crossover already present.
• Bollinger Bands:
  • Daily: Price recently breached upper band, now pulling back inside—historically signals a mean reversion toward the band midpoint.
  • Hourly: Narrowing width, volatility expansion likely imminent (downward break favored given trend).
• Volume Profile/VWAP:
  • High volume at $3,800–$3,900, now acting as resistance. VWAP declining on lower timeframes.

6. Pattern Recognition

• Rising Wedge formation visible on 4H/daily charts from July 18–29.
  • Breakdown from wedge pattern began July 30; textbook pattern target points toward a return to wedge base ($3,530–$3,700).
• Double Top near $3,938 (July 28/29). Confirmation with a break below $3,735.

7. Moving Averages

• EMAs/SMA:
  • 20 / 50 hour MA: Rolling over sharply and now above price, acting as resistance.
  • 200 hour MA: Currently at ~$3,600, aligns with medium-term support—could be mean reversion target.
  • Daily moving averages: Far below current price; makes ETH vulnerable to snapback corrections.

8. Elliott Wave Structure

• Suggests wave 5 completion of recent impulse from $2,500. Positive feedback loop could now reverse, correcting to wave 4 zone ($3,600–$3,500).

9. Sentiment & Positioning

• Post-parabolic move, speculative interest high—usually marks local tops.
• High volume but lack of new highs post-July 29 reflects distribution (large players offloading to late longs).

10. Volatility Indicators

• Implied and historical volatility elevated; such episodes generally precede corrective swings.

24-Hour Forecast

• Given momentum loss, heavy distribution volume, bearish divergences, and pattern breakdowns, ETH is primed for further retracement or consolidation. Rapid bounces possible after such large moves, but risk dominant is to the downside.
• Next major support lies between $3,650 and $3,600; breakdown of $3,735 opens rapid move to this zone. If $3,600 fails, extended unwind may test $3,530–$3,545.
• Upside risk capped by heavy resistance at $3,850–$3,900. Any rallies into this zone could face heavy selling.

Strategy Conclusion

• Recommendation: Initiate a short (Sell) on a minor intraday rally toward $3,750–$3,765 (as a retest of broken support/ now resistance).
• Targets:
  • Conservative: $3,650 (first minor support, mean reversion target)
  • Aggressive: $3,540 (bottom of prior consolidation and rising wedge base)
• Risk: Cover short if ETH closes hourly above $3,805 (invalidates short thesis).

Executive Summary

• Initiate Short (Sell) on ETH at $3,750–$3,765
• Target $3,650 for first leg down; greater correction possible into $3,540 if support fails.

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