Detailed Technical Analysis for Ethereum (ETH) – Short-term (24 hours)

1. Price Overview and Context

• Current Price: $3,422.71 (2025-08-02 21:01 UTC)
• Recent Highs/Lows:
  • High post-2025-07-27: ~$3,940
  • Notable recent low: $3,377 (intraday, 08-02)
• Recent Trend: After peaking in late July, ETH has experienced a notable correction. The hourly chart shows a significant drop from $3,940 down to the current level, with increased volatility, lower highs, and lower lows over the past two days.

2. Trend Analysis

• Short-Term Trends (Hourly/4h):

  • ETH has created a series of lower highs since $3,940, pointing to bearish momentum.
  • Each rebound is weaker, suggesting buyers are losing conviction and supply is outpacing demand.
  • Recent candles show long upper wicks and closes near session lows - a sign of persistent selling pressure.

• Medium-Term Trends (Daily):

  • July saw a persistent and powerful rally; however, a sharp top is visible, followed by an exhaustion and retracement.
  • This forms a classic correction pattern after a parabolic move.

3. Support & Resistance Mapping

• Key Support Levels:
  • $3,375–$3,400: Proven support in last 24 hours and intraday (multiple hourly bounces).
  • $3,250 (strong next support; also psychological round number).
• Key Resistance Levels:
  • $3,490–$3,520: Intraday resistance cluster (multiple failed retests).
  • $3,600+: Significant supply, where major selling originated.

4. Volume and Momentum Analysis

• Volume:

  • Surge in volume during recent declines (see 08-02 17:00–20:00 intervals) suggests institutional/professional selling rather than retail panic.
  • Lower volume on recent bounce attempts, confirming weak buying interest.

• Momentum Oscillators (RSI, MACD):

  • RSI (Estimated): Likely in the 35-45 zone—approaching, but not yet in, oversold territory given the selling intensity but no large rebound.
  • MACD (Estimated): Bearish crossover, with histogram expanding downward, indicating trend continuation to the downside.

5. Candle Patterns and Chart Structures

• Several hourly candles are textbook bearish marubozu or have pronounced upper wicks (e.g., hours with closes far below highs), typically found in downtrends.
• The daily chart resembles a shooting star and bearish engulfing from late July, followed by confirmation days down.
• No clear bottom reversal structure is yet visible intraday; no hammer, doji, or bullish engulfing at support.

6. Volatility & ATR (Average True Range) Analysis

• 24h implied ATR: ~120-150 points, based on recent swings.
• Current price action is near lower bounds of daily range, indicating the possibility of a continuation move as there’s no major reversal pattern detected.

7. Moving Averages Analysis

• Short-term (10/20 EMA, estimated): Both likely sloped downward, price trading below these.
• Longer-term (50SMA): After acting as prior support, now likely to serve as intraday resistance near $3,500.

8. Fibonacci Retracement Levels from July Swing Low ($3,013) to High ($3,940):

• 38.2% Retracement: ~$3,580 — already broken, indicating deeper retrace underway.
• 50% Retracement: ~$3,477 — briefly touched and failed to hold.
• 61.8% Retracement: ~$3,285 — risk ETH trades to this level by next session.

9. Order Book Flow and Sentiment (Inferred)

• Past 24h reveal failed attempts to reclaim $3,500+; bid support around $3,375 is soft (frequent retests, no strong reversal after testing), suggesting breakdown risk.
• Sentiment on intraday moves looks increasingly negative as each bounce results in a fresh selloff.

10. Pattern Recognition & Elliott Wave Analysis (Brief)

• The corrective structure since July high fits a 3-wave A-B-C zigzag, with the current C wave possibly not complete—projecting C to end between $3,250–$3,320.

11. Potential Catalysts/External Factors (Macro)

• No data here; assuming no big positive catalyst (such as ETF approval, major protocol upgrade imminent), so technicals likely dominate.

12. Synthesis/Conclusion

• All analyzed indicators (momentum, volume, trend, market structure, support/resistance, retracement logic) point toward the path of least resistance being DOWN in the next 24 hours.
• There’s a lack of bottoming signals; sellers remain aggressive and buyers seem cautious.
• Odds favor a further drop toward and possibly through the $3,375 support with risk of extension to $3,285–$3,250 if selling intensifies.

13. Trade Plan

• Position: SELL (Short Position)
• Entry (Sell) Price: On a failed bounce/retest toward $3,435 (just above current price, near intraday minor resistance, to avoid mid-blind entries)
• Take Profit (Buy to close): $3,285 (near 61.8% retracement and next major daily support)

Stop Loss (Not explicitly asked, but best practice): Ideally above $3,490, to allow some wiggle room for volatility, but not required per instructions.

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Summary

• Signal: SELL
• Open at: $3,435
• Close at: $3,285
• Rationale: Downtrend, weak bounces, rising sell volume, lack of bottoming pattern, breakdowns through support, key retracement levels align as price magnet.

ETH is likely to remain under pressure and drop further before any sustainable upside attempt can resume. Remain nimble and disciplined if volatility increases!