In-Depth Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis (August 3, 2025)

1. Trend Analysis

ETH has experienced a dramatic surge from early July through late July, moving from ~$2500 to closed highs north of $3800. The trend reversed on July 31 and especially August 1, with the price dropping sharply from $3800+ to the $3400s, suggesting a strong and sudden correction. Over the last 24 hours, ETH shows a modest recovery from ~$3400 lows to the current ~$3494, but the overall intermediate trend remains fragile.

2. Chart Patterns

• Double Top at ~$3850 (July 27–29): Clear resistance was hit in the $3850 region twice, then price sharply rejected downwards—classic reversal cue.
• Head and Shoulders: The pattern is present, especially with July 20-31 highs, which was followed by a breakdown below the neckline ($3700), confirming bearish reversal.
• Bear Flag (August 1–3): After the steep decline, ETH's price consolidates between $3400–$3490, often forming a bear flag. This is typically a continuation pattern in downtrends.

3. Support & Resistance Levels

• Major Support:
  • $3400 (recent short-term low)
  • $3200 (mid-July consolidation)
  • $3000 (round-figure psychological and previous resistance-turned-support)
• Major Resistance:
  • $3550–3600 (recent hourly highs)
  • $3700 (old neckline and critical breakdown level)
  • $3800–3850 (double top and July highs)

4. Volume Profile

• Volume Spikes: Massive sell-side volume on July 31–August 1, confirming panic-selling and decisive movement. The rebound in August 3's early hours was on lower volume—indicative of weak buying conviction.

5. Candlestick Analysis

• Current Candle Patterns:
  • Several Dojis and narrow-bodied candles in the $3440–$3490 range recently, highlighting indecision and reduced momentum after a sharp drop.
  • No strong bullish engulfing or hammer, which, if present, might suggest a reversal.

6. Momentum Indicators

• Short-Term RSI (not given, but inferred):
  • Likely in the 35–45 range after the sharp dump, indicating conditions are neutral to slightly oversold, but not at true exhaustion.
• MACD (Inferred):
  • Likely in a bearish convergence following the severe drop, with no clear bottom or positive crossover yet.

7. Moving Averages (Estimated)

• 20-Day SMA: Likely around $3700, now above price, acting as resistance.
• 50-Day SMA: May be near $3200–$3400 zone, possibly offering weak support but just broken below and acting as resistance.
• Price is currently below critical moving averages, which generally supports a short-term bearish or corrective stance.

8. Fibonacci Retracement (For July’s Run-Up)

• Key Levels:
  • 23.6% = ~$3550 (struggling to reclaim)
  • 38.2% = ~$3470–$3500 (currently fighting here)
  • 50% = ~$3300 (target on breakdown)

9. Volatility Analysis

• ATR (Inferred):
  • Increased substantially since late July, confirming higher trading risk and potential for further swings.
• Consolidation in $3470–$3495 is very tight, indicating a coiling phase—likely to lead to a quick move when resolved.

10. Market Sentiment & Positioning

• Post-Panic Sentiment: After a nearly vertical move up and sharp crash, short-term traders are cautious. Weak recovery volume suggests lack of strong bullish participation, raising the chance for further downside if $3400 breaks.
• No evidence of major accumulation (e.g., high-volume reversal candles), signaling that strong hands may not be stepping in yet.

11. Elliott Wave Analysis (Hypothetical)

• Major impulsive move up completed with a 5-wave advance into the $3850 area; correction underway, possibly an A-B-C with current action marking the end of A and start of B. If true, wave C could drop below $3400.

12. Order Book Flow (Inferred from Price Action)

• Defensive buying near $3400, but no aggressive follow-through—bulls are not overwhelming sellers. Supply is capping ETH near $3500 multiple times over the last 24 hours.

13. Relative Strength to BTC (Inferred)

• Risks of wider altcoin correction if BTC also sustains below its resistance; ETH often leads or amplifies trends in rapid risk-on/risk-off transitions.

Synthesis & Next 24h Forecast

• The bounce from $3400 to ~$3495 is weak—in the face of the sharp breakdown, low-volume recovery, and resistance at $3550, the path of least resistance remains lower unless a decisive close above $3550–$3600 occurs with high volume.
• Technical setup (bear flag, double top, lack of bullish reversal evidence) supports a Sell (short position) bias.
• Expectation for the next 24h is:
  • Retests of $3400 or potential breakdown toward $3300–$3250 zone (key Fibonacci and historical support level).
  • Any move above $3550 would invalidate the immediate bearish view and warrant tight stop-loss.

Risk Management

• Place stops above $3550 (local resistance zone)
• Target lower support at $3350–$3320, covering before large-scale bounces as panic sellers may exhaust.

Summary

• Bias: Sell (short position)
• Open (Short) at: $3494 (current price is optimal given resistance at $3500)
• Target Cover: $3350 (next strong support; avoid overextending in volatile market)

All views are based on current technical structure and evolving price action. Always use stops and monitor for reversal signals.