Step-by-Step Technical Analysis for Ethereum (ETH) - August 5, 2025

1. Trend Analysis

• Daily Trend: Examining the daily candles from May through early August, ETH went from a base around $2500–$2600, with steady grinding moves upward through late June, then a sharp parabolic rally through July, peaking near $3875–3940 (July 28), followed by swift retracement and correction to sub-$3400 (August 2).
• Recent Behavior: After the correction, ETH posted a short-term bounce to ~$3500, but failed to regain previous highs. Over the past several sessions, the price has shown lower highs and lower lows—classical characteristics of a short-to-medium term downtrend. The most recent close is $3575.67, below intra-month peak.

2. Support & Resistance Zones

• Immediate Resistance:
  • $3600–3630: Former intraday support, now resistance (see recent hours on August 5, repeated rejections at 3595–3607).
  • $3690–3720: Local highs/attempted rebounds overnight and into early U.S. session.
• Immediate Support:
  • $3550–3570: Multiple touchpoints as both support and resistance, recent intraday lows.
  • $3430–3480: Prior zone retested after breakdown in early August.

3. Volume Profile

• Declining Daily Volume: After the initial dump in late July/early August (large volume, $3500–$3400 flush), recent sessions show waning volume on both upside and downside moves—indicative of indecision and potential for another volatility expansion.
• Intraday Volume Spikes: Notable at price breaks around $3570–$3600, suggesting these are battleground zones for bulls and bears. Last 4-hour candles today show medium-to-heavy volume on pushes lower, suggesting sell-side momentum exceeds demand.

4. Candlestick Patterns

• Recent Daily Structure: July rally ended with large upper wick candles (market top/weakness). Post-correction, we see several doji/spinning top candles, failed engulfing attempts, and now, successive red candles with shallow rebounds. Today’s intraday pattern forms a descending channel.
• Intraday Hourly: Most hourly closes from 03:00 to 20:00 UTC are below prior opens, producing a sequence of red candles with only minor, weak recoveries. Large wick at 14:00–15:00 around $3577–$3564 reflects attempted defense, but insufficient buyer strength.

5. Moving Averages

• 200 DMA (Estimated): On the daily, the 200-day MA is likely near $2900–2950, far below current price, showing ETH remains in a broadly bullish multi-month trend. However, shorter timeframes (4hr/1hr) show price oscillating below the 21- and 50-period exponential moving averages (EMAs) - a textbook sign of short-term weakness.
• Short-term MAs (1hr): Both 21- and 50-hr EMAs are sloping down and acting as dynamic intraday resistance, currently around $3595 and $3630, reinforcing the idea of resistance just above spot.

6. RSI (Relative Strength Index)

• Daily RSI: Peaked during the July rally (>70), now has dipped toward 45–50 range after sharp correction, indicating neutral to slightly bearish momentum.
• Hourly RSI: Has been oscillating in 38–48 territory for past 12 hours; repeated failure to surpass 50, showing selling pressure persists intraday.

7. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

• Daily MACD: Bearish crossover after the late July top, histogram building negative momentum.
• 4-hour MACD: Still negative; no sign of positive cross. Signals that the short-term dump is not yet exhausted.

8. Bollinger Bands

• Daily Bands: Widened during July’s surge and recent dump, with price now hugging the lower band. This usually means another leg down or at least increased chance of volatility spikes downward versus mean revert, given the absence of reversal confirmation.
• Hourly Bands: Bands are slightly contracting after the move, but price remains near the lower band, implying bearish bias yet to resolve.

9. Fibonacci Retracement

• Key Retracement Levels from July Low ($3430) to July High ($3940):
  • 0.382 Fib: $3740 (recent bounce high, rejected)
  • 0.500 Fib: $3685 (yet to be reclaimed)
  • 0.618 Fib: $3620 (retraced, resistance area now)
  • Current price is below all, confirms lower-high structure.

10. Chart Patterns Analysis

• Descending Channel: Clear downward sloping channel on intraday timeframes, with each relief bounce sold into.
• Failed Double Bottom: Attempts to form a base around $3550/3570 have failed to produce a higher low or sustainable rebound.

11. Order Flow & Sentiment Analysis

• Order Book Imbalances: Heavy selling volume at $3600–$3630, thin bids below $3550, indicating high risk of further breakdown if $3550 fails. Bulls reluctant to step in aggressively after being punished repeatedly at resistance levels this week.
• News Flow: No immediate fundamental catalyst for upside, with macro uncertainty ahead and general skittishness in risk assets.

12. Multiple Timeframe Confluence

• Daily, 4-hour, and 1-hour: All show short-term trend still downward, with no clear bullish reversal setup.

13. Volatility Analysis

• Realized Volatility: Spikes on downside moves, compresses on bounces. This typically precedes volatility expansion, and the path of least resistance remains to the downside.

14. Potential Trade Triggers

• If $3550 breaks convincingly, technicals suggest a quick dump toward $3480, possibly retesting $3400–3420 range, with possible panic wicks below on high leverage liquidations.
• Short-term bounce attempts should be watched near $3600–$3630 for potential lower-risk short entries.

---

Synthesis and Trading Decision

Conclusion:

• ETH has lost all major short-term moving averages, failed at key retracement/resistance ($3630–3690), and remains under pressure by selling flows. Lack of bullish reversal signals, negative MACD/RSI, and repeated support failures all point to further weakness in the immediate term. Intraday action shows failed bounces, supply overhangs, and a weak order book. Sharp downside volatility is possible on a $3550 break.

Bias: "Sell (Short)"

Optimal Trade Setup

• Open Short: Ideally on a weak retest of $3595–3600 (intraday resistance, previous supply zone) for best risk:reward.
• If that fails, short on clear break and close below $3550.

Profit Target: Initial take-profit at $3490 (confluence with early August low and major support cluster), with additional legs possibly toward $3430 (July low) if high momentum breakdown occurs.

Stop Loss: Protective stop recommended above $3635 (to avoid being caught by quick squeezes above decay zone).

Final Trading Recommendation

• Sell (Short Position) at $3595
• Target: $3490
• Stop: $3635

Probability of breakdown and test of lower supports outweighs immediate bounce scenario. Momentum and liquidity both favor further downside within next 24 hours unless new demand emerges unexpectedly.

---

Summary Table:

Aspect	Signal
Trend	Down
Volume	Bearish/Bearish
RSI	Below neutral
MACD	Bearish
Key Support	$3550, $3490
Key Resistance	$3600, $3630
Trade Direction	Sell (Short)
Entry (Open Price)	$3595
Take Profit (Close Price)	$3490