ETH Breaks the Rim: Targeting 4.1k–4.15k After a Shallow Retest

Executive summary

• ETH broke out to new local highs (~4066 intraday) after reclaiming and clearing the late-July supply band (3940–3980). Momentum, breadth, and volume confirm a trend continuation setup. Near term, a shallow pullback to 4020–4035 (retest of breakout/VWAP zone) is probable before another leg higher toward 4100–4150 within 24 hours. Base case favors buy-the-dip.

1. Market structure and trend

• Higher time frame (Daily): Clear uptrend from the late-June capitulation low (~2229) and the August 2 swing low (~3393). Sequence of HH/HL resumed after reclaiming 3720–3800. Today’s print exceeds prior daily highs (3941 on Jul-28), converting that zone into support.
• Intermediate structure: A rounded “cup-and-handle” style base from Jul-10 to Aug-04 (cup depth ~550 points; rim ~3940) broke topside today. Measured move from the rim projects medium-term target ~4490 (not 24h, but underscores trend context).
• Intraday (1h): Well-ordered impulsive structure since ~13:00–14:00 UTC with successive HH/HL: 3955 → 4032 → 4055 → 4066. A micro 4th-wave style consolidation around 3955–3980 preceded a 5th-wave push to 4066. Expect an ABC pullback to ~4020–4035, then continuation.

2. Moving averages

• Daily 20/50/200 SMA/EMA (est.): Price is decisively above 20D EMA (~3600s), 50D (~3000s), and 200D (~2800s). Slope of the 20D > 50D > 200D indicates a healthy bullish stack. No MA resistance overhead on this timeframe.
• 1h 20/50 EMA: Price riding above the 20-EMA most of the day; minor mean reversion to 1h 20/50 EMA cluster (4020–4035 est.) is a high-probability dip-buy zone.

3. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): Likely in low-to-mid 70s; overbought but rising in a trending regime. In strong trends, RSI can remain >70 while price grinds higher; interpret as momentum confirmation rather than a sell signal.
• 1h RSI(14): Reached overbought on the breakout, with a mild potential bearish divergence forming vs. the 4066 high. This typically resolves via a shallow pullback (1–1.5%); aligns with a retest of 4020–4035.
• Stoch RSI (1h): High and curling down—supports a brief cooldown before next impulse.

4. MACD

• Daily MACD: Bullish cross earlier this week; histogram expanding—continuation signal.
• 1h MACD: Positive, but histogram showing slowing expansion—consistent with a brief consolidation/pullback before re-acceleration.

5. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (Daily): Price is riding the upper band; bandwidth expanding—classic “walk the band” behavior after volatility contraction. Usually favors continuation with intraday dips.
• Keltner Channels (1h): Price extended toward outer band; mean reversion to mid-line (roughly low-4030s) is typical prior to next leg.
• ATR: Daily ATR has expanded materially since early August (est. 180–220). Expect a ±2–3% 24h range (±80–120 points) around the mean path.

6. Volume/flow

• Daily: Upside days carried strong volume; the current breakout through 3940–4000 printed healthy participation (hour 20:00 UTC spike). Volume confirmation reduces the odds of a pure false breakout.
• OBV (conceptually): Rising in step with price; confirms accumulation.
• Intraday: Expansion of volume into the 4050–4066 prints suggests real buying interest rather than drift.

7. Support/resistance map

• Immediate resistance: 4050–4066 (today’s intraday supply); psychological 4100; extension to 4140–4155 from intraday measured move.
• Immediate support: 4020–4035 (breakout retest/1h EMA cluster/VWAP neighborhood), then 3980–4000 (round number + midday pivot), 3940–3955 (former July high cluster and intraday pivot).

8. Fibonacci analysis

• From Aug-02 swing low (3393) to today’s high (4066): range ~673.
  • 23.6%: ~3910 (aligns with yesterday’s acceptance zone)
  • 38.2%: ~3848
  • 50%: ~3730
  • 61.8%: ~3612
• At-the-moment price is near the swing high; a 23.6% retrace (shallow, bullish regime) is ~3910—deeper than base case. Expect shallower retests first (4020–4035), unless momentum fails.
• Fib extensions (near-term intraday): 1.0x impulse 3955→4055 projects 4155 on measured continuation; 1.272 off micro swings points ~4125–4145 window.

9. Ichimoku

• Daily: Price well above cloud; Tenkan > Kijun; Chikou above price from 26 periods ago—strong bull alignment.
• 1h: Price above cloud; pullbacks to Tenkan/Kijun (4020–4035 est.) are buyable in-trend.

10. ADX/DMI

• Daily ADX rising (est. high-20s to low-30s) with +DI > –DI: indicates a strengthening trend. Short-term countertrend signals have lower odds.

11. Donchian channels / breakouts

• 20D Donchian high (~3940s) cleared decisively; this is a classic breakout regime shift. Post-breakout behavior often includes a modest retest followed by trend extension.

12. Price action and candles

• Today’s intraday shows a series of bullish candles with higher bodies and shallow wicks into demand. The 14:00–16:00 UTC pullback held higher lows (~3955), then a decisive push through 4000 with follow-through to 4066. Closing near highs (4058) preserves momentum into the next session.

13. Elliott wave (intraday heuristic)

• Count suggests 5 up from ~3920: (1) 3961, (2) 3921, (3) 4032, (4) 3955, (5) 4066. Expect ABC down toward 4020–4035, then a new impulsive sequence toward 4120–4150. Invalidation of the immediate bullish micro-view below ~3980.

14. Liquidity/round-number psychology

• 4000 is a magnet level; initial breach often sees one or two retests. Liquidity likely pooled below 4000 and above 4066. A stop-sweep down to 4020–4030 before a drive to collect liquidity above 4100 is a common path.

15. Pivots (classical, qualitative)

• With the prior session capped sub-4000 and today’s impulse through R1/R2 equivalents, the next session likely oscillates between R1 retest (~4025–4035) and an R2/R3 probe (~4100–4150).

16. Scenarios with odds (subjective)

• Bullish base case (60%): Early pullback to 4020–4035 holds → grind to 4100, extension toward 4125–4150 by end of 24h.
• Range/mean reversion (30%): Deeper dip to 3980–4000, chop 3980–4070; upside attempt may occur later in the window.
• Bearish break (10%): Failure through 3980 opens 3955 → 3940 test; would neutralize the immediate momentum and defer the breakout.

17. Risk management notes

• For a long, a logical invalidation sits below 3980 (structure) or more conservative below 3955/3940 (prior tops). ATR suggests a 70–120pt breathing room is typical for the next 24h. Position sizing should reflect that variance.

18. Strategy synthesis and 24h path

• The confluence of trend (MA/Ichimoku), momentum (RSI/MACD), volume confirmation, and structural breakout above 3940–4000 favors buying dips. Expect the market to defend 4020–4035 first; if defended, the path of least resistance is toward 4100–4150 within the next day.

Actionable plan (non-advisory; for analysis illustration)

• Preferred entry: 4032 (retest zone between 4020–4035) with risk cut if hourly close <3980.
• Primary target window: 4125–4155 (use 4148 as a refined take-profit aligned with measured move and round-number behavior).
• Optional momentum add: Breakout add above 4068 with tight trailing stop under 4040, aiming 4140–4155.

Bottom line forecast (next 24h)

• Bias: Bullish continuation after a shallow pullback.
• Expected range: 3980–4150 with upside tails possible to 4175.
• Key levels: Support 4020–4035; 3980; 3940–3955. Resistance 4066; 4100; 4125–4155.