ETH rockets through 4.6k: buy the pullback, aim for the 4.72k extension within 24 hours

Summary view

• Context: ETH just staged a high-momentum breakout to 4,621.9 after consolidating around 4,200–4,330 intraday. Daily trend is firmly up since late June; weekly structure is making higher highs/lows. The move is extended versus short-term means but technically healthy, with volume confirmation on the breakout.
• 24h bias: Bullish with a buy-the-dip preference into 4,56–4,52k support, targeting 4,72k (1.414 Fib extension) within 24 hours if momentum persists. Base case: retest of breakout, then continuation. Risk: shallow liquidity and overextension could induce a quick mean reversion to 4,50–4,42k before trend resumes.

Step-by-step, multi-tool analysis

1. Price action and market structure

• Daily structure: Higher highs/lows from the late-June capitulation low (~2,116 on 6/22) to rising peaks: ~2.77k (6/11), ~3.48–3.88k (late July), then ~4.26–4.33k (8/9–8/10), and now 4.62k. The sequence confirms a strong bull trend.
• Intraday (hourly): Tight range 4,22–4,33 in the Asian/early EU hours, clean breakout at 12:00–15:00 UTC toward 4,47–4,50, then a momentum thrust to 4,62 into 20:00. Structure shows an ascending base resolving higher, with successive higher lows at ~4,26, ~4,36, ~4,44, ~4,50.
• Candlestick behavior: Wide-range bullish hourly candles at 12:00, 15:00, 20:00 with strong closes near highs—hallmarks of momentum ignition and buyer control. No decisive upper-wick rejection at the 20:00 push; follow-through risk skewed up.

2. Trend diagnostics (moving averages)

• Daily 20SMA/EMA (approx.): ~3.8–3.9k; price is ~18–21% above—extended but not unprecedented in crypto momentum phases.
• Daily 50SMA: ~3.2–3.4k (approx.), well below price; 20>50>200 bull stack sustained since July.
• Hourly EMAs (8/21/55): Steep positive slope and neatly stacked; price rides the 8/21 EMA ribbon, typical of a power trend. Expect pullbacks to the 21/55 EMA (~4.56–4.50k) to find demand.
• Conclusion: Strong trend, but near-term extension argues for buying dips vs chasing highs.

3. Momentum indicators

• Daily RSI(14): Likely >70 (overbought). In strong trends, RSI can stay >70 while price grinds higher; overbought is a feature, not a sell signal, until bearish divergences form (none decisive on daily yet).
• Hourly RSI(14): Likely 75–85 on the 20:00 surge. No clear, mature bearish divergence yet across the last two push highs; potential for a small negative divergence to develop if 4.62–4.65 stalls—watch the next 2–3 hours.
• MACD (daily): Positive, widening histogram, bullish cross occurred weeks ago—momentum regime intact.
• MACD (hourly): Positive and expanding; minor cooling likely if we retrace to 4.56–4.52k.
• ADX (daily): Likely >30–35 given the magnitude/volatility expansion; +DI dominant—confirms trend strength.

4. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20D, 2σ): Midline near ~3.85–3.9k; upper band expanding into ~4.58–4.65k. Price is riding/piercing the upper band, classic “walk-the-band” behavior during breakouts. Expansion suggests trend continuation, but risk of snap-backs toward the upper band/5–10 EMA as mean reversion pockets.
• ATR(14D): Elevated (roughly 220–300). A 24h swing of 4–6% is feasible, pointing to a 4,40–4,90k tactical envelope absent shock news.

5. Volume, OBV, and participation

• Daily upswings since early August show rising volume (8/7–8/10), consistent with accumulation. Today’s intraday breakout candles carry strong prints (notably 16:00–20:00 hours), indicating fresh participation rather than low-liquidity markup.
• OBV (conceptual): Trending up, confirms price advance—no distribution signature yet.
• Volume thrust: The 20:00 hourly candle posted a clear volume surge, which tends to see follow-through unless quickly faded—supports buying dips.

6. VWAP, mean reversion, and intraday posture

• Session VWAP (8/12) is materially below last trade (likely mid 4.4s–4.5s). Price > VWAP by >2% implies short-term overextension; reversion into 4.56–4.52 is a high-probability test zone.
• Expectation: Either a shallow flag above 4.58 then continuation, or a VWAP-proximal pullback toward 4.52–4.50, which would be buyable if volume on pullback dries up.

7. Fibonacci mapping and extensions

• Swing used: Aug 2 low 3,392.7 to Aug 10 high 4,332.2 (Δ≈939.5).
  • 1.272 extension: 4,332 + 0.272*939 ≈ 4,587.7 (just passed)
  • 1.414 extension: 4,332 + 0.414*939 ≈ 4,720.9 (key magnet/target)
  • 1.618 extension: 4,332 + 0.618*939 ≈ 4,912.8 (stretch within 24–72h if momentum persists)
• Retracement zones from today’s 12:00→20:00 leg (4,401.5 to 4,629.3, Δ≈227.8):
  • 38.2%: ~4,542
  • 50%: ~4,515
  • 61.8%: ~4,487 These cluster with structural supports (4,517 prior hour high; 4,50–4,48 congestion). Prime entries sit in 4,54–4,49.

8. Ichimoku (daily)

• Price far above Kumo; Tenkan > Kijun; Chikou clear of price. Very bullish regime. Tenkan (9-period midpoint) likely ~4.0–4.1k, Kijun (26) ~3.1–3.4k—large gap implies trend strength but also pullback risk to Tenkan on volatility spikes. Not a sell in this state; trend-followers buy pullbacks.

9. Market profile / liquidity and key levels

• Supports: 4,517 (hourly breakout close), 4,500 (psychological, round number), 4,463–4,469 (16:00/15:00 closes), 4,401–4,410 (midday breakout), 4,332 (8/10 high, prior macro breakout).
• Resistances: 4,629 (today’s high), 4,660–4,675 (local measured move and micro supply), 4,720–4,730 (1.414 extension), 4,800 (psychological), 4,913 (1.618 extension).
• Liquidity: After breaching 4.6k, buy stops likely layered toward 4.7k; below, sell stops cluster under 4.52/4.50. Expect whip risk around these pivots.

10. Pattern recognition

• Intraday: Ascending triangle/base between ~4.22–4.33 resolving higher; measured move initially pointed to ~4.66, which aligns with near-term resistance just above. Price has overachieved the first objective—next extension targets in focus.
• Daily: Momentum continuation rather than late-stage blow-off (no parabolic final spike yet), though vigilance warranted as we approach 1.414–1.618 extensions.

11. Elliott wave lens (tactical)

• From Aug 2 low, a plausible 5-wave impulse: Wave 1 to 3.72k (8/4), Wave 2 to 3.61k (8/5), Wave 3 to 4.26k (8/9), Wave 4 to 4.16k (8/10), Wave 5 unfolding now reaching 4.62k. Wave 5 can extend; a modest ABC pullback into 4.52–4.48 before a push to 4.72 fits the script. If 4.44–4.41 fails, larger correction opens (lower-probability in next 24h).

12. Risk assessment and scenarios (next 24h)

• Base case (~60%): Pullback to 4.56–4.52k, hold above 4.50k, then grind to 4.68–4.72k, potentially tagging 4.72k (1.414 ext). Close the day near highs if volume persists.
• Alt bullish (~25%): Minimal dip; momentum carries straight through 4.66–4.70, overshoots to 4.75–4.80. This requires sustained buy pressure and no immediate divergence.
• Bearish (~15%): Failed retest; lose 4.50k on volume, slide to 4.44–4.41k (breakout backtest). Trend damage only below ~4.33k.

13. Trade plan logic

• Edge comes from aligning with the dominant uptrend and using the post-breakout retest zone for entry: 4.54–4.52k clusters Fib 38.2/50% of today’s impulse with prior hourly highs and round-number psychology.
• Target selection: 4.72k is the clean 1.414 extension from the Aug 2–10 swing and matches measured continuation projections. Risk/reward favorable if buying ~4.545k with stops logically tucked under 4.48k (not required here, but prudent).

Conclusion

• Momentum, breadth, and structure favor continuation after a dip. Overbought readings caution against chasing at 4.62; buy the first pullback toward 4.56–4.52k and target the 4.72k magnet within 24 hours. If momentum exceeds expectations, 4.75–4.80 is possible; if the retest fails, reassess below 4.50.