ETH: Tactical Short After a High-Volume Reversal—Looking for 4.45K Test Before the Next Leg

Executive summary

• Regime: Strong primary uptrend on daily timeframe, but a high-volume bearish reversal day signals a short-term corrective phase likely to persist into the next 12–24 hours.
• Bias next 24h: Bearish-to-sideways with a base case test of 4480–4450 support before any meaningful bounce to 4580–4620.
• Trade idea: Tactical short on a relief bounce into 4610–4660, targeting a move toward 4460–4450 (confluent support: 50–61.8% retracement, pivot S1 proximity, hourly demand).

Step-by-step, multi-method analysis

1. Price action and structure

• Daily trend: From Aug 2 low (~3393) to Aug 13 high (~4785) ETH rallied ~41%. The trend remains up on higher highs/lows and price above rising 10/20-day MAs.
• Today’s candle (Aug 14): Large red day, close 4535, high 4785, low 4492, very high volume. This forms a bearish engulfing / shooting star hybrid relative to Aug 13’s strong close (4756). It’s a classic distribution day after an overbought run.
• Intraday (hourly): Clear descending channel from 04:00–20:00 UTC with a heavy sell impulse 12:00–13:00 (low 4492), then weak bounces capped at 4666 and 4685 before fading to 4531–4536. Market order flow shows sellers in control, but with decelerating momentum late in the session.
• Key levels identified:
  • Resistance: 4666–4685 (intraday rebound cap), 4717–4765 (supply cluster), 4785 (swing high).
  • Support: 4520–4510 (minor), 4490–4480 (intraday low area), 4460–4440 (50–61.8% Fib retrace cluster), 4424 (pivot S1), 4360–4330 (deeper pullback zone if momentum accelerates).

2. Moving averages

• 5-day SMA ≈ 4473. Current 4536 > 4473. Near-term support rising, but price is only modestly above it after the reversal, signaling pullback risk remains.
• 10-day SMA ≈ 4185. Strong buffer below; trend status intact on this horizon.
• 20-day SMA ≈ 3932. Healthy uptrend regime on a swing basis; corrections can extend without breaking trend.
• Implication: Trend is up, but room remains for a short-term mean reversion to 4470–4450 without damaging the broader bull structure.

3. Momentum indicators

• RSI(14) daily ≈ 69 after today’s drop (down from overbought >70). This is a momentum turning point; often precedes a 1–3 day consolidation/pullback.
• Stochastic daily: Likely crossing down from overbought; aligns with corrective bias.
• MACD daily: Momentum positive but histogram likely narrowing. Signal for slowing upside impulse and susceptibility to a pullback.
• Hourly RSI: In 30s–40s for much of the downleg; weak bounces suggest sellers remain active until a deeper test of support or positive divergence forms.

4. Volatility and bands

• ATR (recent daily) ≈ 280–350 points. Today’s range 292 implies a typical volatile session. A 2–3% intraday swing tomorrow is feasible (≈90–140 points).
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Price had been riding/pressing the upper band into Aug 13–14; today’s reversal likely pulled price back toward/just above the upper band midpoint. Room exists to travel toward the band midline (near 20SMA ~3930) over multiple days, but in the next 24h, a touch toward upper-band lower edge near mid-4400s is more likely.

5. Volume and breadth

• Volume: Aug 14 printed very high volume (~78B) on a red reversal day — a distribution signature. Often, this triggers 1–2 follow-through sessions of weakness or a retest of the reversal day’s lower half.
• OBV: Uptrend intact since early August, but today’s distribution likely flattened/rolled it short term. Not a trend breaker yet, but a short-term headwind.

6. Fibonacci mapping

• Last impulsive leg: Aug 11 close ~4227 to Aug 13 high ~4785. Key retracements:
  • 38.2%: ~4571
  • 50%: ~4506
  • 61.8%: ~4440
• Price closed near 50% (4536) after probing 4492. Expect a magnet effect toward 4506/4490 and potentially a quick stab at 4440 if sellers push again before dip buyers reassert.

7. Pivot levels (Classic; using Aug 14 H/L/C)

• Pivot P ≈ 4604.19
• R1 ≈ 4716.39; R2 ≈ 4897.07
• S1 ≈ 4423.51; S2 ≈ 4311.31
• Price into the close is below P and well below R1; a fade-to-S1 path is textbook after a pivot rejection. S1 ~4424 aligns with 61.8% Fib cluster support 4440–4420 — a high-confluence downside objective.

8. VWAP and intraday dynamics

• Today’s session VWAP likely resided around mid-4600s early, slipping lower as selling intensified. Late-day trade below VWAP confirms bearish intraday control.
• Expect early-session tomorrow: a modest mean-reversion attempt toward ~4600–4620 VWAP/5-min anchored VWAP bands, then supply to re-emerge.

9. Ichimoku (daily)

• Price is well above the Cloud; trend is bullish.
• Tenkan (9-period midpoint) likely in the 4450–4550 area; Kijun (26) likely far lower (~3800–4000). Post-run corrections often gravitate to Tenkan; current print straddles this zone — supporting a 4450 test before trend resumption.

10. ADX/DMI

• ADX rising (given the multi-week impulse), +DI > -DI. However, post-climax sessions often see +DI roll over briefly while ADX lags, signaling a tradable dip.

11. Elliott Wave framing

• Possible count from Aug 2:
  • Wave 1: Aug 2–7
  • Wave 2: pullback into Aug 11
  • Wave 3: Aug 11–13 blow-off toward 4785
  • Current: Wave 4 corrective, usually 38–50–61.8% of wave 3; 4506–4440 fits wave 4 ideals.
• Expectation: After a 24–48h consolidation around 4450–4550, a Wave 5 attempt could target 4900–5000+ later, assuming risk backdrop stays stable.

12. Wyckoff lens

• Today resembles a “Buying Climax” + “Automatic Reaction” combo on the minor swing, i.e., distribution on high volume at the top followed by markdown and choppy redistribution. A secondary test lower (4450 area) is statistically common before re-accumulation.

13. Market profile / volume profile

• Recent auction built a fat node 4200–4300; a developing low-volume pocket 4400–4550 suggests swift rotations within that band. Price can traverse 4615 → 4450 efficiently if sellers press.

14. Correlations and context

• Crypto complex typically follows BTC; while not provided here, the structure suggests ETH’s move was broad-based risk-on into a climax, now mean-reverting. If BTC hesitates, ETH’s pullback should continue near-term.

15. Probabilistic path next 24 hours

• Base case (55%): Relief bounce toward 4600–4620 sells off to 4480–4450; day finishes 4520–4570.
• Bear case (25%): No bounce; straight push to 4440–4420 (pivot S1) with possible wick to 4380 before a late-day rebound.
• Bull case (20%): Strong reclaim above 4666–4685 and a squeeze to 4715–4740; sustained trade above 4760 invalidates the short-term bear skew.

16. Risk management and invalidation (important)

• Short invalidation for the next 24h: Sustained reclaim and hold above 4685–4717 (hourly closes), or a decisive break back above 4760 with expanding volume (reopens 4785+).
• Downside extension risk: If 4440 fails on volume, 4424 (S1) and 4360–4330 come into view; that scenario may overshoot the 24h window but is plausible on risk-off headlines.

Actionable plan

• Rationale: High-volume bearish reversal, hourly downtrend, resistance overhead at 4666–4685, confluence support 4506 → 4440; volatility supports a 2–3% range.
• Tactic: Sell a bounce into 4610–4620 (near tomorrow’s early-session VWAP/previous breakdown zone) aiming for a take-profit into 4460–4450. This maximizes R:R versus shorting at the dead lows.
• Optional stop (not in schema but recommended): 4718 (above R1 band and intraday supply), yielding an attractive R:R if filled at ~4615.

Summary

• Short-term momentum turned down within a larger uptrend. Expect ETH to probe 4480–4450 before attempting another leg higher. A tactical short on a bounce offers favorable parameters over the next 24 hours.

Note: This is a tactical trading plan, not financial advice. Use position sizing, respect stops, and reassess if market context (especially BTC) changes materially.