ETH: Short the Bounce — Targeting a Pullback to the 4.27k Support Zone Within 24 Hours

Executive summary

• Bias (next 24h): Bearish-to-neutral; expect another leg lower into 4.33k–4.27k before a reactive bounce.
• Context: Strong multi-week uptrend, but the last 48 hours printed a high-volume bearish outside day and follow-through lower high/lower low. Short-term momentum has flipped down while the higher-timeframe trend remains up.

1. Market structure and price action

• Daily trend: Clear uptrend from early August (3.39k low on Aug 2) to 4.79k high (Aug 14). The last two sessions form a corrective downswing: Aug 14 was a wide-range bearish outside day with the largest volume in the series, Aug 15 extended lower with a lower high (4.66k) and a lower low (4.386k) and closed weak (~4.427k).
• Intraday (hourly) structure (Aug 15): Asia/Europe session oscillated 4.62–4.66k, NY session sold off hard to 4.38–4.44k. Subsequent hours show compression between 4.39–4.45k with lower highs, suggesting a bear flag/continuation potential unless 4.50k is reclaimed.
• Key levels respected:
  • Prior breakout/supply pivot: 4.50k–4.56k (multiple hourly rejections; aligns with daily 5SMA/9EMA zone and daily pivot P for the next session).
  • Support shelf: 4.33k–4.27k (prior highs Aug 9–11, Fibonacci 0.382/0.5 cluster depending on anchor, and daily/next-session pivot supports).

2. Volume and participation

• Daily volume climax: Aug 14 printed the highest volume in the sample alongside a bearish outside day — classic distribution/profit-taking signal near local tops.
• Aug 15 hourly: Noticeable volume spike on the 20:00 hour during the 4.38k–4.43k defense — dip buyers active, but absorption below 4.45k kept price capped.
• Implication: Near-term supply > demand below 4.50k; expect rallies to meet sellers until a deeper support is tested.

3. Moving averages (trend filters)

• 5-day SMA ≈ 4,510: Price closed below this fast MA (short-term weakness).
• 10-day SMA ≈ 4,268: Price remains above, keeping the intermediate uptrend intact.
• 20-day SMA ≈ 3,967: Price well above; the primary trend is still bullish, but current pullback has room without damaging the larger trend.
• Read-through: Short-term correction within a larger uptrend. Likely path is a mean-reverting drop into the 10D SMA/nearby supports (4.33–4.27k) before attempting to resume higher.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI (daily, qualitative): Recently overbought (>70) into Aug 13–14 highs; two-session pullback likely brought RSI down toward mid-60s/50s — momentum cooling, but not yet oversold on daily.
• RSI (hourly, qualitative): Dipped to/near oversold on the 4.38k spike, then weak bounce — a typical bear market rally on the intraday timeframe.
• Stochastic (intraday, qualitative): Embedded low during NY session with weak recoveries — supports another push lower before a durable bounce.
• Implication: Short-term momentum remains down; expect another swing lower to reset intraday oscillators fully before strong dip-buying returns.

5. MACD

• Daily MACD: Positive but showing histogram rollover post-Aug 13 peak — a loss of upside momentum consistent with a corrective phase.
• Hourly MACD: Below signal line; minor bullish divergence attempts were faded — favors selling rips until a stronger base forms around lower supports.

6. Bollinger Bands

• Daily: Recent expansion at the upper band (Aug 12–13) followed by mean-reversion toward the middle band. With price still materially above the 20SMA, room remains to the downside before touching the mid-band; volatility likely persists.
• Hourly: Bands compressed after the selloff; a subsequent expansion typically resolves in the direction of the prevailing intraday trend — down unless 4.50k is reclaimed.

7. Ichimoku (contextual)

• Daily: Price far above the cloud (bullish regime). Tenkan (conversion) likely around mid-4.5k and Kijun (base) around low-4k; closing below Tenkan signals short-term corrective pressure toward the Kijun/cluster supports.
• Hourly: Price under a thin cloud; repeated failures to break topside — intraday bias remains lower.

8. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing A: Aug 2 low 3,392.74 → Aug 14 high 4,788.55 (range 1,395.81)
  • 38.2%: 4,255
  • 50%: 4,091
  • 61.8%: 3,926
• Swing B (tighter): Aug 7 low 3,650.37 → Aug 14 high 4,788.55 (range 1,138.19)
  • 38.2%: 4,353
  • 50%: 4,219
  • 61.8%: 4,086
• Swing C (micro): Aug 10 low 4,163.94 → Aug 14 high 4,788.55 (range 624.61)
  • 50%/61.8% zone: 4,476 / 4,403 (current price sits between; 4.403k nearly tagged).
• Confluence: 4.35k–4.26k forms a dense retracement cluster (38.2% of Swing B, 38.2% of Swing A near 4.255k). That is an attractive downside magnet before the uptrend attempts continuation.

9. Classical pivots

• Prior day (Aug 14) pivots (H=4,788.55, L=4,461.28, C=4,548.17):
  • P ≈ 4,599
  • R1 ≈ 4,737
  • S1 ≈ 4,410
  • S2 ≈ 4,272
  • S3 ≈ 4,083 Price is hovering just above S1; next magnet is S2 ≈ 4,272.
• Next-session pivots derived from Aug 15’s H/L/C (H=4,664.07, L=4,385.68, C=4,427.33):
  • P ≈ 4,492
  • R1 ≈ 4,599
  • S1 ≈ 4,321
  • S2 ≈ 4,214
  • S3 ≈ 4,042 Expect rallies toward P (≈4,49x) to be sold; downside path targets S1/S2 (4.32k/4.21k), with our base TP set above S2 at 4.275k to front-run bids.

10. Elliott Wave (heuristic)

• A 5-wave advance likely completed into the Aug 13–14 highs. Current phase appears to be an ABC correction:
  • Wave A: Aug 14 outside day.
  • Wave B: Early Aug 15 intraday pop to 4.664k.
  • Wave C: Ongoing; typical targets: 0.382–0.5 of the prior advance (4.26k–4.09k). With the strong higher-timeframe trend, 0.382–0.5 should suffice before trend resumption; thus 4.27k is a logical wave-C completion area in the next 24–48h.

11. Volatility and ATR

• Daily ATR has expanded (multi-hundred-dollar ranges in recent sessions). Today’s range ~278. Expect 24h realized volatility of ~250–350. That supports a feasible swing from a 4.49k sell zone down into 4.33–4.27k without requiring extraordinary moves.

12. Order flow/liquidity features

• Liquidity pools:
  • Below: Equal/near-equal intraday lows around 4.39–4.40k; deeper pools around 4.35k and 4.27k (prior highs and fibs).
  • Above: Stacked supply 4.50–4.56k (failed break attempts), then 4.60k.
• Likely path: Sweep sub-4.40k liquidity, extend to 4.33–4.27k, then responsive buying.

13. Confluence summary (bearish for 24h)

• Bearish outside day + follow-through lower high/lower low.
• Price below fast MAs (5D/9EMA), failing at 4.50k; intraday trend below hourly cloud.
• Pivots/fibs/structure point to 4.33–4.27k as next magnet.
• Larger trend remains bullish, so expect strong dip demand there; but into that zone, the edge favors shorting rallies.

14. 24-hour path expectation (base case ~55–60% probability)

• Immediate: Choppy bounce attempts toward 4.48–4.50k likely encounter supply.
• Then: Roll over to take out 4.39k lows; accelerate into 4.35k, probing 4.30–4.27k.
• Late window: From 4.27k region, a reflexive bounce toward 4.40–4.45k is plausible.

15. Trade plan (tactical)

• Direction: Sell the bounce (Short).
• Entry: Optimal near next-session Pivot P around 4,492; use a tactical buffer into the 4.50k supply. Proposed entry: 4,498.
• Take-profit (24h objective): 4,275 (just above prior-day S2 and near the 0.382 cluster), front-running deeper bids.
• Invalidation (stop idea; informational): 4,610–4,666 (above R1/intraday supply and today’s lower high). If reclaimed, the short thesis weakens and a squeeze toward 4.74k can follow.
• Risk/Reward (to 4,275 TP, stop hypothetical 4,610): ~223 reward vs ~112 risk from a 4,498 entry if using a tighter 4,610 stop (R:R ≈ 2:1). With a looser invalidation above 4,666, R:R ~1.3:1.
• Alternative (counter-trend) idea for later: If 4.27k prints, look for reversal signals to fade back up toward 4.40–4.45k; not the primary recommendation now.

16. What flips the bias

• Bullish reclaim: Hourly close above 4.56k and daily close back above 4.60k would negate the immediate downside and suggest the correction is done. Until then, rallies are suspect.

Bottom line

• Near-term momentum is down inside a broader uptrend. Expect a push into 4.33–4.27k within 24h. Best-execution idea is to Sell a pop into 4.49–4.50k and cover in front of 4.27k.

Note: This is a technical analysis-based trading plan, not financial advice. Volatility is high; use position sizing and risk controls.