ETH coils above 4.38k support: poised for a 24h rotation toward 4.58k

Summary view

• Instrument: Ethereum (ETH/USD)
• Current price: 4434.44
• Lookback: Daily trend (May–Aug), Hourly microstructure (last 24–36h)
• Thesis: Strong primary uptrend intact after sharp two-day pullback from 4788. Minor base building above 4385–4376 support with signs of absorption and momentum stabilization. Higher-probability path over next 24h is a rebound toward 4473 → 4494 → 4533/4580 (Fib/pivot cluster) unless 4375 is lost.

1. Market structure and price action

• Higher timeframe (Daily): Clear sequence of higher highs/higher lows since late June. Rally accelerated from ~3400 (Aug 2) to 4788 (Aug 14). The subsequent pullback to 4376 (Aug 15) retraced ~26–30% of the Aug leg and held above prior breakout zones (4200–4260), preserving bullish structure.
• Intermediate structure: Last three daily candles: strong up (Aug 13), outside high-volatility pullback (Aug 14), follow-through down to 4376 then close 4439 (Aug 15), and today (Aug 16) an inside/small-bodied day hovering 4410–4490, indicative of balance/repair.
• Intraday (Hourly): Forming a compact base with a double-bottom/rounded retest at 4388–4390 (10:00–11:00) and a sequence of higher lows thereafter (4395 → 4404 → 4411 → 4416). Repeated but contained supply near 4459–4466 shows a developing range 4390–4466 (symmetrical triangle/ascending micro-channel). Break of 4466–4473 is the trigger toward 4494/4533.

2. Key levels (confluence of S/R, Fib, pivots)

• Supports: 4410–4425 (hourly pivot cluster), 4388–4390 (intraday double bottom), 4375.55 (Aug 15 swing low), 4335–4345 (Ichimoku Tenkan/nearby structure), 4321 (S1 classic pivot), 4260–4265 (prior swing shelf).
• Resistances: 4466 (hourly range top), 4473 (23.6% Fib of 4788→4376 leg), 4494 (daily pivot P), 4533 (38.2% Fib), 4582 (50% Fib), 4631 (61.8% Fib), 4668 (Aug 15 H), 4756/4788 (Aug 13 C / Aug 14 H).
• Fibonacci retracement (Aug 14 H 4788.55 to Aug 15 L 4375.55; range = 413): 23.6% 4473.02; 38.2% 4533.32; 50% 4582.05; 61.8% 4630.78; 78.6% 4700.17.
• Classic pivots (based on Aug 15): P 4494; R1 4613; R2 4787; S1 4321; S2 4202. Current price sits between S1 and P, typically mean-reverting toward P in balanced sessions.

3. Trend and moving averages (directional bias)

• 20D SMA ≈ 3996 (est.): Price is ~11% above, confirming the primary uptrend. Pullback has not violated the 20SMA or trend structure.
• 9–10D EMA (est. mid-4500s): Price is marginally below the fast EMA after the pullback; reclaiming ~4475–4500 should re-sync short-term trend with the dominant daily uptrend.
• 50D SMA well below (~3k+): Reinforces strong bullish regime.
• Slope analysis: All medium/long MAs rising; short MA temporarily flattened from mean-reversion—typical of consolidations, not trend reversals.

4. Momentum and oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) cooled from overbought highs to ~58–62 zone (est.), now neutral-bullish—ample room for another momentum push without immediate overbought risk.
• Hourly RSI hovering ~48–55 with bullish divergence vs. the 4388–4390 retest (price flat-to-slightly lower but RSI higher), supportive of a base.
• MACD (Daily): Positive but histogram contracting since Aug 14—normal for a pullback within an uptrend.
• MACD (Hourly): Bear phase waning; signal/histogram improving and near/at a bullish cross, consistent with a probe higher into 4473/4494.
• Stochastics: Daily reset from >80 toward mid-range; Hourly rising from neutral—favors upside follow-through over next sessions.

5. Volatility and bands/channels

• ATR(14D) elevated (≈ 280–300 est.), highlighting a high-volatility regime; single-day moves of 150–300 pts are routine.
• Bollinger Bands (Daily, 20, 2σ): Price backed off from upper band test on Aug 13–14 and is now in the upper half, near the mid/upper band zone—room for a controlled re-expansion upward.
• Bollinger Bands (Hourly): Squeeze-to-expansion behavior post morning compression; band width increasing modestly with price stabilizing above the mid-band—often precedes a directional attempt.
• Regression channel (20–30D): Rising; price sits near the lower-to-mid channel—mean reversion targets are above (4490–4590).

6. Ichimoku and trend confirmation

• Daily Ichimoku: Price above Kumo; Kijun est. ~4080; Tenkan est. ~4335. Price > Tenkan and >> Kijun with rising Span A—bullish regime. A Tenkan bounce aligns with the observed 4388–4420 support.
• 4H/1H: Price near/above Tenkan with Kijun below—pullback contained within bullish parameters. Cloud support below offers a cushion if 4375 holds.

7. Volume, flow, and microstructure

• Daily volume spiked on Aug 14 (capitulation-like wash), remained heavy Aug 15, and tapered today—typical of a two-day shakeout. No distributional follow-through below 4375 suggests dip buyers active.
• Hourly shows rising prints in 16:00–20:00 while price holds a tight range—absorption of supply. That often precedes a range break higher if sellers fail to push through lows.
• OBV/CMF (qualitative): Persistent uptrend since early August, small two-day dip; still net positive—supports re-accumulation rather than distribution.

8. Pattern frameworks

• Wyckoff lens: Buying Climax (BC) near 4788, Automatic Reaction (AR) 4376, Secondary Test (ST) today around 4388–4390 with diminishing downside energy. Near-term Sign of Strength (SOS) would be a clean break/hold above 4466–4473, then a test of 4494/4533.
• Elliott Wave (heuristic): Wave-4 style pullback likely completed or near completion at 4376 (~23.6–38.2% of the Aug leg), with a developing wave-5 attempt toward prior highs in coming sessions. The next 24h likely captures the early phase (retest 4530–4580).
• Candles: Aug 15 wide-range negative with long tails; today’s inside day/balance suggests energy building and potential break with Monday liquidity.

9. Additional tools

• Parabolic SAR (Daily) likely still below price—no bearish flip yet; on Hourly, SAR likely flipped bearish during the drop and is now close overhead ~4460–4475; a breach would add momentum confirmation.
• ADX/DI (Daily): ADX ~35–40 (est.), trend intact; +DI > −DI though −DI upticked in the pullback—healthy digestion. On Hourly, ADX low, indicating range conditions primed for a directional break.
• Keltner Channels (Daily): Price pulled back from outer band to mid-channel; typical launchpad if trend resumes.
• Donchian (20D): Upper ~4789, lower ~3393; price near upper third—trend context intact.
• Pivot framework: Current price below P=4494 but well above S1=4321; in balance days there’s a propensity to revert toward P, aligning with the 4473–4494 targets.
• Anchored VWAP: From the Aug 15 low (4376), avwap sits near 4435–4445 intraday; price oscillating around it—fair-value base building, often preceding a push toward the next value area (4490–4530).

10. Scenarios and probabilities (next 24 hours)

• Base case (≈60%): Hold 4410–4425 on dips, break 4466–4473, then rotate to 4494 pivot. Momentum continuation to 4530–4580 into/after the break as liquidity improves. Expected path: 4420–4430 dip-bid → 4473 → 4494 → 4533 (stall) → 4580 (stretch target).
• Bear alternative (≈30%): Early fade fails at 4466–4473, price slips under 4410, probing 4388–4376. If 4375 holds, reversion back to 4435–4460 likely; if 4375 breaks, quick tag of 4335–4321 (S1) before buyers re-engage.
• Tail risk (≈10%): Risk-off wave pushes toward 4260–4200 if 4321 fails decisively; currently not base expectation given supportive breadth/structure.

11. Trade plan (short-term tactical)

• Bias: Buy-the-dip within the 4410–4425 demand zone or on break/retest of 4466–4473.
• Optimal entry (limit): 4420 (inside the intraday support pocket and around avwap), improving reward-to-risk and offering a fill on routine intraday volatility.
• Take-profit: 4580 (near 50% Fib + prior micro supply shelf). Optional staged take-profits: 4494 (pivot), 4533 (38.2% Fib), final 4580.
• Protective stop (not required by prompt but essential): 4370 (beneath Aug 15 low 4375 with buffer). That yields approx R:R ≈ 3.3 if TP 4580 is reached from 4420.
• Confirmation cues: Bullish 1h MACD cross, RSI >55 on 1h, reclaim and hold above 4466–4473, and SAR flip on the 1h.

Conclusion

• The primary uptrend remains intact. The market absorbed a textbook two-day shakeout and is building a higher-timeframe bullish continuation base above 4375. Multiple confluences (Fib 23.6% at 4473, daily pivot at 4494, hourly resistance at 4466, avwap 4435–4445, and intraday double-bottom at 4388–4390) argue for a bounce/rotation higher over the next 24 hours. The tactical edge is to buy near 4420 with a realistic 24h target at 4580 while respecting a stop below 4370 to guard against a deeper retrace toward 4330–4320.