ETH: Fade the Bounce — Short the 4.45k Supply for a Run to 4.26k

Executive summary and 24h path forecast

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bearish-to-range. Expect a relief bounce into 4400–4470, then renewed selling toward 4260–4280 if that supply holds. A squeeze through 4485–4520 invalidates the short setup and opens 4550–4620.
• Preferred trade: Fade the bounce (short into 4440–4465), target the liquidity pocket above 4250.

Step-by-step technical dissection

1. Market structure (multi-timeframe)

• Daily: After the strong advance from early August (3393 → 4789), price has been in a corrective sequence since 8/14. We have lower highs (8/17 ~4576 vs 8/13–8/14 highs 4757–4789) and, crucially today, a lower low (4231) relative to 8/15–8/17 lows (4376–4401). That confirms a short-term downtrend within a larger bull trend.
• 4H/1H: Intraday made a capitulation low at 4231, bounced to 4370–4383, and is hovering around 4339 near session VWAP. Structure shows a bear channel with successive lower highs; rallies have been sold into.

2. Trend and moving averages

• Daily 20SMA (approx): in the low 4.1k–4.2k region, rising. Price at 4.34k is above the 20SMA but rolling back toward it. This is consistent with a pullback in an uptrend.
• Daily 50SMA (approx): mid-to-high 3k, rising sharply; well below price, confirming the larger trend remains up.
• 4H/1H EMAs: Price is below declining 21/50 EMAs intraday; rallies to the 50/100 EMAs near 4390–4460 have met supply. That skews the next 24h toward selling rips rather than buying dips (unless 4230s are retested and defended again).

3. Momentum (RSI, MACD, Stoch)

• Daily RSI: likely cooled from overbought (>70) to mid-50s; momentum has waned but not broken. Room exists for further consolidation/downside before re-acceleration.
• 1H RSI: printed oversold on the 4231 low, then mean-reverted to neutral (mid-40s/50). No new bullish divergence on the most recent swing; suggests bounce may stall into resistance.
• Daily MACD: crossing down from elevated levels but above the zero line—classic corrective signal within a broader uptrend. 1H MACD turned up from the morning low but is flattening—consistent with a fadeable bounce.
• Stochastic (1H): near mid-range after resetting from oversold; plenty of room either way, but with a slight propensity to roll down if resistance caps price.

4. Volatility and bands (Bollinger, ATR, Keltner)

• Daily ATR has expanded materially (~300–400+ pts), indicating wider ranges. Expect 24h swings of 250–400+ pts possible.
• 1H Bollinger: price tagged/pierced the lower band at 4230 and reverted toward the mid-band; upper band sits near 4440–4460. That band top coincides with our sell zone.
• Keltner Channels (conceptual): price oscillating between mid and lower channels; rallies into the mid/upper band have been good fade spots in this corrective phase.

5. Ichimoku

• Daily: Price far above the cloud; pullback is gravitating toward the Kijun (baseline) around 4.22k–4.28k. First touch of a rising Kijun often supports, but the initial tag can undercut slightly (liquidity sweep). Today’s 4.23k low is consistent with that behavior; however, if price fails below the Tenkan (~4.50k down-sloping), rallies likely constrained to 4.44k–4.52k.
• 1H: Price below the cloud; Senkou Span resistance aligns with 4.42k–4.46k. Chikou line is entangled with recent price—non-trending to slightly bearish intraday.

6. Fibonacci mapping

• Major swing (8/2 low 3393 → 8/14 high 4789):
  • 38.2%: ~4255 (tagged today at 4231—minor undercut)
  • 50%: ~4090
  • 61.8%: ~3920 Today’s bounce off the 0.382 zone is typical, but a deeper test toward 4090 can’t be dismissed if 4440–4470 rejects.
• Minor swing (8/17 high 4576 → today’s low 4231):
  • 38.2% retrace: ~4359 (tested)
  • 50%: ~4403
  • 61.8%: ~4446 The 61.8% sits right in our preferred short entry zone.

7. Volume, VWAP, and profile

• Intraday VWAP: clustering around 4.34k–4.35k; price wrestling with VWAP late session—non-trending to bearish when failing to hold above.
• Volume profile (recent): High-volume node between 4480–4550 from last week; today’s auction shifted lower, building acceptance 4310–4370. A low-volume pocket exists 4390–4445 that can be traversed quickly but often rejects on first test, making it a good fade area.
• OBV/Volume tone: Big upticks on distribution days (8/14–8/15), steady but lighter on the bounce (8/17), heavier again today on the down leg. That argues sellers remain active at higher prints.

8. Candles and patterns

• Daily: Today is a wide-range red candle with a pronounced lower shadow but a decent body—more “bearish continuation with a check-back” than a classic hammer. The 8/14–8/18 sequence resembles a bull flag/descending channel on the daily, but its lower rail is not firmly accepted yet; flags can break either way, though near-term the flag is trending down.
• 1H: Series of lower highs and failure wicks near 4365–4385 and 4400–4410; adds confluence to the idea of supply above.

9. Market internals and confluence zones

• Resistance stack: 4359 (0.382 minor), 4403 (0.5 minor), 4446 (0.618 minor) + 1H cloud top and upper Bollinger ≈ 4440–4460, plus prior breakdown shelf ~4465–4485. This is a dense confluence.
• Support stack: 4308 (S2 pivot area), 4255 (major 0.382), 4230–4235 (today’s sweep), then 4180–4200 and 4090 (major 0.5) if momentum accelerates.

10. Classical pivots (using 8/17 OHLC)

• Pivot P ≈ 4483; S1 ≈ 4391; S2 ≈ 4308; S3 ≈ 4225; R1 ≈ 4566. Price extended to S3 today and bounced; typical behavior is a revert toward S1/S2 and then decision—right now price is oscillating between S2 and S1, with sellers defending below P, reinforcing sell-the-rip bias.

11. Elliott wave perspective (tactical)

• The 8/2 → 8/14 surge counts as an impulsive leg. The current phase likely an ABC correction: A down (8/14–8/15), B up (8/16–8/17), C down unfolding today/into tomorrow. A standard B-to-C structure often retraces ~50–61.8% of the minor A down before rolling—precisely our 4403–4446 sell zone.

12. Risk and timing considerations

• Time-of-day: With US session closing and Asia/Europe up next, relief bounces often occur early Asia into Europe, which can tag overhead fib/MA/cloud resistances before NY reoffers. That timing fits a “wait for 4440–4465, then short” plan.
• Invalidation: Sustained acceptance above 4485–4520 (hourly close + follow-through) would negate the short and likely target 4550–4620.

24h price path expectation (probabilistic)

• Base case (55%): Bounce toward 4400–4465, rejection, drift lower to 4260–4280; possible liquidity stab 4225–4235 before closing 4280–4350.
• Range case (30%): Choppy between 4300 and 4460 with no decisive break; closes near 4350–4400.
• Squeeze case (15%): Strong reclaim above 4485, run toward 4550–4620, invalidating the short.

Trade plan synthesis

• Strategy: Sell the rally into the 0.618 minor retracement and 1H cloud/upper band confluence (4440–4465). This aligns with the short-term downtrend while honoring the larger uptrend by targeting just above the 0.382 major fib/Kijun support at 4250–4260.
• Risk management (guidance): Place a stop above 4515–4525 to respect the supply shelf; that yields roughly 70–85 pts risk for 180–200 pts reward (R2.2–2.8). Adjust sizing to volatility (ATR).