ETH at the 50% Fib: Triple-Tap at 4.12k Tees Up a Reflex Rally to R1

Executive Summary

• Bias next 24h: Tactical bounce favored after a high-volume liquidity sweep into the 4.12k area, with resistance expected into 4.29k–4.33k.
• Setup: Counter-trend long (mean-reversion) against 4.06k–4.11k support; aim to capture a move back to the first resistance/pivot cluster.
• Decision: Buy the dip with a tight invalidation below the 4.06k pivot (stop detailed in risk section for completeness).

1. Multi-timeframe Market Structure

• Daily structure: ETH rallied from late-June lows (~2.2–2.4k) to a local top on Aug 13 (~4.78k). Since then, price is in a corrective downswing of ~13–15% to today’s intraday low (~4.119k) and daily close (~4.158k). Despite the pullback, the broader daily trend remains up (higher highs vs July). The current downswing resembles a wave-4/abc corrective move within a larger uptrend.
• Hourly structure (last 24–36h): Clear series of lower highs/lows into 4.12k, followed by repeated rejections of sub-4.13k prints and higher closes, suggesting absorption of selling and base-building. The last several hourly candles show demand defending 4.12k, with closes pulling back above 4.14–4.16k.

2. Key Horizontal Levels (derived from recent H/L/C and visible swing zones)

• Immediate support: 4,110–4,135 (today’s repeated intraday rejection zone; triple tap with closes above). Stronger support at 4,060–4,090 (confluence with 50% retrace of the major August leg and classic S1 pivot; see Fib and pivots below).
• Resistance 1: 4,285–4,320 (intraday supply; prior hourly highs 4.30–4.34k, yesterday’s balance and today’s R1 pivot). This is the first realistic upside magnet in a 24h window.
• Resistance 2: 4,360–4,400 (hourly supply shelf and daily corrective trendline zone). Stretch target within 24–36h if momentum accelerates.
• Macro pivot: 4,250–4,280 (38.2% retrace cluster from larger leg; often first resistance after a corrective low).

3. Moving Averages and Trend Filters

• Daily 20SMA (approx): ~4,073. Price closed above it (~4,158), signaling that, despite the pullback, daily momentum remains net positive vs the intermediate mean. First touch/hover above a rising 20D MA often attracts dip buyers.
• Daily 50/100 SMA (inferred): Well below price (from weeks of uptrend), confirming the higher-timeframe uptrend is intact.
• Hourly MAs: Price remains beneath 20/50H EMAs (bearish intraday bias), but distance to those means has compressed as the selloff slowed. Mean reversion toward the 20/50H EMAs (estimated 4.20–4.30k) is a reasonable near-term expectation.

4. Momentum/Oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) (approx calculation): ~64. While elevated due to the early-August thrust, RSI has been rolling over for several sessions. Importantly, it is not overbought anymore, leaving room for a reflexive bounce without immediate OB constraints.
• Hourly RSI(14): Shifted from sub-40 to mid-40s as price based above 4.12k, a classic bullish momentum divergence signature: price retested similar lows (4.12k) while RSI made a higher low. This increases the probability of a bounce toward 4.28–4.32k.
• MACD: Daily MACD is in a standard post-spike cool-off (histogram contracting from highs). Hourly MACD shows signs of flattening with potential for a bullish cross if price reclaims 4.19–4.21k; such a cross typically fuels a push to the first overhead supply band.
• Stochastics (hourly): Cycling up from oversold, consistent with a short-term relief rally.

5. Volatility, Range, and Mean-Reversion Context

• Recent daily true ranges: 200–330 pts during the August correction (e.g., today’s H-L ~230). A bounce of 130–180 pts from a session low aligns with realized intraday volatility. From 4.14k, that projects into 4.27–4.32k without requiring a trend change.
• Bollinger Bands (daily): After significant early-Aug expansion, price has reverted toward the mid-band region. Closing slightly above the 20D midline with lower intraday wicks is supportive of a stabilization attempt.
• Keltner Channels (inferred): Price near/just below mid-channel on hourly, with room to tag upper channel into 4.28–4.33k if momentum turns.

6. Fibonacci Confluence and Targets

• Major swing (Aug 3 ~3,393 to Aug 13 ~4,785):
  • 38.2%: ~4,254
  • 50%: ~4,089
  • 61.8%: ~3,925 Price probed between 50% and 38.2% (4.09–4.25k) and is showing demand responses—typical behavior for wave-4 retraces inside uptrends.
• Alternate swing (Jul 31 ~3,488 to Aug 13 ~4,785):
  • 38.2%: ~4,279
  • 50%: ~4,137 Current consolidation straddles this 50% (~4,137) and eyes 38.2% (~4,279) as the first upside magnet—nicely matching our R1 pivot and supply shelf.

7. Ichimoku (inferred)

• Daily: Price remains above the (likely) rising cloud; Tenkan likely crossing down toward Kijun, reflecting consolidation but not a full trend reversal. Pullbacks to Kijun/20D MA areas often generate bounces.
• Hourly: Price dipped below the cloud earlier; with basing underway, a reclaim of 4.20–4.22k should begin a cloud test. If reclaimed, it opens room to 4.28–4.33k.

8. Candlestick and Pattern Read

• Daily bar: Bearish body with a meaningful lower wick (intraday low ~4,119, close ~4,158). This shows dip absorption and a failed breakdown attempt below 4.13k.
• Hourly: Multiple hammer/long-lower-wick prints around 16:00–20:00 UTC at/near 4.12k, followed by stabilizing closes. This “triple-tap and hold” frequently precedes a bounce to retest the prior breakdown area (4.28–4.32k).
• Micro-pattern: Potential falling wedge/descending channel on the intraday chart. A push through 4.19–4.21k would be a classic wedge breakout trigger toward 4.30k.

9. Volume, Order Flow, and Liquidity

• Today’s sell waves showed elevated volume on the push down to 4.12k, followed by smaller-bodied candles with higher closes—suggesting aggressive sellers met responsive buyers in a demand pocket. Repeated failure to close below 4.13k despite several liquidity sweeps implies inventory transfer to stronger hands.
• Liquidity: Clear stops likely sat under 4.15k and 4.13k. Those were swept, and price recovered—typical of a short-term bottoming process.

10. Pivot Map for the Next Session (Classic Pivots using today’s H/L/C)

• Pivot P: ~4,208.9
• R1: ~4,298.8
• R2: ~4,439.1
• S1: ~4,068.5 These align well with our identified technical zones: S1 near the 50% Fib (~4,089) and prior resistance (Aug 8 high ~4,068), and R1 near the first supply shelf ~4.30k.

11. Scenario Analysis (Next 24h)

• Base Case (55%): Mean-reversion bounce.
  • Trigger: Hold 4.11–4.16k and reclaim 4.19–4.21k (hourly resistance/MA band).
  • Path: 4.21k -> 4.26k -> 4.30k. First serious supply/offer reload expected ~4.29–4.33k.
• Bear Case (30%): One more flush.
  • Break and hourly close below ~4.11k opens a fast test of 4.06–4.09k (pivot S1/Fib 50%). Buyers likely defend there first time. Failure there risks an extension to ~3.98k (S2).
• Bull Extension (15%): Strong squeeze.
  • If 4.33–4.36k breaks on volume, momentum could overshoot to 4.39–4.40k. Probability lower within 24h without a catalyst, but not zero if shorts are trapped.

12. Risk Management and Trade Construction

• Rationale for Long: Confluence of supports (hourly base at 4.12k, S1/Fib 50% 4.06–4.09k, prior breakout shelf near 4.07k), bullish intraday divergence, and proximity to the 20D MA favor a reflex bounce.
• Entry Tactics: Two common approaches:
  1. Buy-the-dip limit in 4,140–4,150 (preferred for R:R).
  2. Momentum confirmation above 4,205–4,215 (safer, slightly worse R:R).
• Stop (suggested for risk planning): Below 4,060 (beneath S1 and under Aug 8 breakout high), e.g., ~4,048. This keeps the stop beyond obvious liquidity and invalidates the immediate bounce thesis.
• Upside Targets:
  • TP1: 4,285–4,300 (R1/past supply).
  • TP2 (stretch): 4,330–4,360 if momentum is strong.

13. Probability-Weighted Expectation Given the evidence—hourly base and divergences, strong reaction off 4.12k, proximity to multi-level confluence at 4.06–4.13k, and still-supportive daily trend—odds favor a bounce toward 4.29–4.33k within the next 24 hours. Risk below 4.06k invalidates.

Conclusion

• Decision: Buy (Long) for a mean-reversion move into the R1/supply band.
• Optimal Entry: Around 4,145–4,150 via limit; we’ll publish 4,148 as precise open.
• Target (24h): 4,299 (R1/pivot cluster), with potential to trail if momentum accelerates toward 4,330–4,360.
• Invalidation (not required by prompt but critical): Close below ~4,060 suggests standing down and reassessing for 3,98x–4,02x next support.

24h Price Path Forecast

• Expected range: 4,085–4,330
• Mode: Upward drift/bounce with intermittent pullbacks, failing near first major supply unless a squeeze develops.