ETH poised to crack 4.61k: ascending triangle eyes 4.78k within 24 hours

Executive summary

• Bias next 24 hours: Moderately bullish. Base case is a continuation from an intraday ascending triangle toward 4,750–4,800, with key breakout over 4,610 and supports at 4,565/4,530/4,478.
• Optimal plan: Buy a pullback into 4,560–4,570 (role-reversal of 38.2% retracement cluster and intraday VWAP bands). Target the gap/volume vacuum 4,770–4,800. Invalidation below 4,485–4,470.

1. Multi-timeframe trend and structure

• Weekly/daily regime: Uptrend. Since early August, ETH made a series of higher highs and higher lows, peaking around 4,953 (Aug 24) before a sharp two-day corrective leg to 4,373 (Aug 25) and today’s rebound to 4,587.
• Daily market structure: Post-correction, today’s candle is bullish and recovers above mid-range pivots. Structure remains constructive if price holds above 4,478–4,450 (halfback of the recent impulse).
• 1H/4H structure: From yesterday’s 4,335–4,373 sweep, intraday has carved higher lows (4,447 → 4,509 → 4,521 → 4,574) capped by 4,595–4,611 resistance, forming an ascending triangle under 4,610. A close above 4,610–4,620 unlocks 4,720/4,770 next.

2. Key levels (confluence)

• Resistance: 4,610–4,620 (1H triangle ceiling); 4,720–4,740 (minor shelf); 4,770–4,800 (gap/volume vacuum and prior supply); 4,831–4,884 (Aug 22 high zone).
• Support: 4,574 (38.2% retrace), 4,565/4,560 (role-reversal and intraday bids), 4,530 (intraday base), 4,478 (50% retrace), 4,383–4,375 (61.8% “golden pocket” area tested).
• Liquidity cues:
  • Resting stops likely above 4,610–4,620 (breakout fuel).
  • Below, liquidity pools around 4,530 and 4,480; deeper under 4,400 if a flush occurs.

3. Fibonacci mapping (Aug 19 low to Aug 22 high)

• Range: 4,073 → 4,884 (Δ = 811).
• Retracements: 38.2% = 4,574; 50% = 4,478; 61.8% = 4,383. Price tagged the 61.8% area (4,37x–4,38x) and rebounded, then reclaimed the 38.2% today—a standard bullish sequence in a continuation scenario.
• Extensions (for potential next leg): 1.272 ≈ 5,104; 1.618 ≈ 5,385 (medium-term, not 24h targets but relevant for path of least resistance once 4,950–4,980 clears).

4. Moving averages (daily)

• 20D SMA ≈ 4,410 (computed). Price at 4,587 sits above, indicating short-term uptrend resumed.
• 50D SMA ≈ 3,850–3,900 (estimate). Slope positive. Strong cushion beneath.
• EMAs: 9/21D likely clustered ~4,55x–4,47x; today’s close above the 21D region (≈4,47x) is constructive. Reclaiming the 9D (≈4,56x) intraday aligns with bullish continuation.
• Takeaway: Price > 20D and > 50D with positive slope favors buying dips.

5. Momentum

• RSI (daily): Likely mid-to-high 50s after pullback; room to expand higher before overbought.
• RSI (1H): Holding 60–65 on advances, consistent with a trend day up bias; no strong bearish divergence into 4,611 yet.
• MACD (daily): Positive and recovering after a brief contraction; histogram curling up.
• MACD (1H): Bullish cross occurred during the 12:00–14:00 UTC thrust; momentum maintained into the NY session.
• Stochastics: Daily not pinned at extremes; intraday oscillations supportive on pullbacks to 4,56x.

6. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (daily, 20): Mid-band ≈ 4,410. Price sits in upper half but not at extremes; headroom to upper band near ~5,000.
• BB (1H): Expansion after a morning squeeze; price riding upper band on thrusts, typical of a trend day. Small mean reverts to mid-band support near 4,55x have been getting bought.
• ATR (daily): Expanded; 24h expected move roughly ±250–350. A 4,560 entry would reasonably target 4,770–4,800 within one ATR.

7. Ichimoku (daily and 1H)

• Daily: Price above cloud. Tenkan (9) around mid-4,5k, Kijun (26) ≈ 4,47x. Close above Kijun/Tenkan stack is bullish. Senkou Span A > B, cloud green.
• 1H: Price above cloud with bullish twist earlier today. Baseline supports coincide with 4,56x–4,58x pullback zones.

8. ADX/Trend strength

• Daily ADX likely >25 given July–August impulse; +DI > –DI, though compressed during the correction. Today’s upswing suggests reacceleration.
• 1H ADX increasing with the triangle; a breakout above 4,610 often coincides with a fresh ADX uptick.

9. Volume analytics

• Daily: Big buy-side flows on Aug 22 (breakout), heavy distribution Aug 25, and healthy participation today (~56B) support the rebound narrative.
• Intraday: Notable volume on the 12:00–14:00 and 19:00–20:00 UTC upswings; lower volume on dips—hallmark of accumulation. OBV-style read points higher.

10. Price action patterns

• Bull flag/ascending triangle on 1H under 4,610. Repeated tests of resistance with rising lows typically resolve up. Measured move from triangle base (~4,509) to lid (~4,611) ≈ +100; projection targets 4,710 on breakout, aligning with 4,72x–4,74x resistance, and often overshoots into 4,77x–4,80x where prior supply sits.
• Gap/inefficiency: The swift Aug 24–25 dump left thin volume between ~4,71x and ~4,80x; price tends to revisit/fill this area once momentum returns.

11. VWAP and mean reversion (intraday)

• Anchored from today’s session, price holds above VWAP, with successful retests near 4,55x. Staying above VWAP during US close/Asia open generally sets a positive overnight drift.

12. Elliott wave view (tactical)

• Impulse from Aug 19 (4,073) to Aug 22 (4,884), followed by an ABC corrective leg that likely ended around Aug 25–26 (4,37x–4,33x sweep). The subsequent higher-low sequence and reclaim of 38.2% suggests a fresh impulse attempt. Invalidation of this count under 4,47x–4,48x.

13. Risk, invalidation, and scenarios

• Bullish base case (60%): Hold 4,560–4,574, break 4,610 → 4,710 → 4,770–4,800 within 24h.
• Neutral chop (25%): Range 4,520–4,640 with failed breakout attempts; eventual resolve after consolidation.
• Bear risk case (15%): Lose 4,560 then 4,478; deeper test of 4,420/4,400. Invalidation for longs below 4,485–4,470 (Kijun/50% area breach and structure shift).

14. Catalyst/flow considerations

• Late-US into Asia risk: Crypto flows often extend trend moves overnight; given momentum and structure, probability favors a breakout attempt. Macro calendar unknown here; watch for sudden USD/liquidity impulses, but technicals currently dominate.

15. Synthesis and trade plan

• Confluences for a long:
  • Reclaim of 38.2% (4,574) after a textbook 61.8% pivot bounce (4,38x).
  • Intraday ascending triangle under 4,610 with rising lows.
  • Price above 20D SMA/Ichimoku supports; EMAs re-stacked bullish intraday.
  • Momentum positively aligned (RSI/MACD), volume supportive, BB room to upper.
• Entry preference: Buy-the-dip into 4,560–4,570 (limit orders) to maximize R:R. Secondary trigger: Momentum add on clean 4,620 breakout if pullback not offered.
• Target for next 24h: 4,770–4,800, taking profits into prior supply ahead of 4,831–4,884.
• Invalidation (not part of the requested output, but critical): Close or sustained trade below 4,485–4,470 undermines the setup; I’d place a stop around 4,485.

Forecast for next 24 hours

• Expected path: Shallow dip attempt to 4,56x, then push to 4,62x breakout. First objective 4,71x, extension 4,77x–4,80x. Anticipated daily range 4,520–4,790 with upside skew.

Decision rationale

• The weight of evidence (trend alignment across TFs, Fibonacci behavior, triangle pattern, MA/Ichimoku support, constructive volume/momentum) favors a Buy-the-dip strategy with a 2:1 to 3:1 R:R into 4,77x–4,80x.