ETH Coils Below 4.66k: Dip-Buy Setup Targets Pivot R1 at 4,72k in Next 24 Hours

Executive summary

• Context: ETH is trading at 4594.41 after a volatile two-week surge to new YTD highs, a sharp pullback, and a bounce. Price is consolidating between 4,535 and 4,660 over the last 24 hours, sitting just under a Fibonacci/prior supply band (4,615–4,660). The medium-term uptrend remains intact; short-term structure shows a coil/range with repeated rejections near 4,659 and higher-low support forming around 4,545–4,560.
• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish. Base case is a grind higher toward 4,700–4,725 if 4,615/4,660 clears on momentum. Downside risk is a liquidity sweep toward 4,500–4,515 (50% retrace of the Aug 19–24 impulse) before dip buyers reassert.
• Plan: Buy the dip near 4,560 with a take-profit near first daily pivot resistance around 4,716–4,720. Rationale: multiple confluences (Fibonacci, pivot, VWAP vicinity, range support, rising structure) favor risk-defined long entries on pullbacks.

1. Price structure and trend (daily)

• Primary trend: Up since early July (c. 2,400 → 4,950). Higher highs/lows persisted into late August. Even after the Aug 25 selloff to 4,373, price held the 38.2% retrace of the larger July–Aug leg and rebounded.
• Recent swing map:
  • Swing low: 4,073 (Aug 19)
  • Swing high: 4,954 (Aug 24)
  • Pullback low: 4,373 (Aug 25)
  • Current: 4,594 (Aug 27)
• Structure takeaways: The Aug 25 low printed almost exactly at the larger 38.2% retracement from 3,393 (Aug 2) → 4,954 (Aug 24), reinforcing bullish control. The bounce reclaimed the 4,500s and is consolidating below resistance.

2. Price structure (hourly, last 24–36 hours)

• Range: 4,534.87 (intraday low) to 4,659.33 (intraday high). Multiple probes of 4,650–4,660 failed, but each rejection produced shallower pullbacks, creating a slightly rising intraday base around 4,545–4,560. This is constructive (buyers absorbing supply).
• Micro higher lows: 4,543 → 4,562 → 4,576 → 4,586 areas, while highs capped 4,656–4,659. This resembles a compressed range/incipient ascending triangle beneath resistance.
• Liquidity: Large prints/volume clusters around 4,56x–4,61x (hourly volume heavy 17–20 UTC), implying a high-volume node that often acts as a magnet but can launch moves once definitively left behind.

3. Key levels and confluences

• Resistance: 4,615 (38.2% Fib of 4,073→4,954) → 4,656–4,660 (intraday cap) → 4,714–4,725 (daily pivot R1 zone; measured objective if breakout) → 4,776–4,780 (prior cluster) → 4,831 (Aug 22 close) → 4,954 (Aug 24 high).
• Support: 4,560 (range shelf) → 4,535 (today’s low) → 4,513 (50% Fib of 4,073→4,954) → 4,410–4,426 (61.8%/local lows) → 4,373 (Aug 25 low).
• Daily pivots (derived from Aug 26 H/L/C: 4632/4316/4600):
  • Pivot P ≈ 4,516
  • R1 ≈ 4,716 (first upside target)
  • R2 ≈ 4,832 (aligns with Aug 22 close/supply)
  • S1 ≈ 4,400
  • Current price above Pivot P (bullish short-term), below R1 (room to run).

4. Moving averages

• 20D SMA (approx): ~4,500. Price is modestly above, consistent with a trend resumption attempt.
• 50D SMA (approx): ~3,800–3,900. 200D SMA well below. Bullish alignment (price > 20D > 50D > 200D) confirms medium-term uptrend.
• Implication: Pullbacks toward the 20D SMA have been bought. Trading above the 20D with improving momentum favors buy-the-dip.

5. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI (est.): mid-50s to low-60s after cooling from overbought territory at 4,95k. This is neutral-to-bullish—room to advance before overbought.
• Hourly RSI: oscillating around 50–55 with shallow dips on pullbacks—typical of consolidations preceding continuation.
• Stochastics (qualitative): Reset on daily from overbought, beginning to curl up; hourly is choppy but not divergent—no clear sell signal.

6. MACD

• Daily MACD: Positive but histogram contracted on the pullback; last 2 sessions show flattening and a nascent turn-up—consistent with a bounce continuation if resistance breaks.
• Hourly MACD: Crossing around zero line multiple times inside the range; latest push suggests momentum building if 4,660 is reclaimed on volume.

7. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price remains above the Kumo. Tenkan (conversion) likely ~4,60x; Kijun (base) ~4,50x. Current price hovering near/above Tenkan, above Kijun—constructive. Span A > Span B with a rising future cloud—trend support intact.
• Takeaway: As long as price holds above Kijun (~4,50x), bullish bias is warranted.

8. Bollinger Bands (daily)

• 20D mid-band ≈ 4,50x. Price just above the mid-band after tagging upper band earlier in August and mean-reverting. Bands remain expanded from the breakout, but have begun to modestly contract—post-spike consolidation that often resolves in trend direction.

9. Volatility and ATR

• Recent daily ranges 300–600 points; ATR(14) estimated ~350–380. Today’s intraday range ~124 indicates compression vs. recent days. A 24h expansion back toward 250–350 points is plausible; measuring from 4,594, that projects tests of ~4,720 on the upside or ~4,450 on the downside.

10. Fibonacci analysis

• From 4,073 → 4,954:
  • 38.2%: 4,617
  • 50%: 4,513
  • 61.8%: 4,410
  • Price oscillating between 38.2% and 50%—a classic “value” zone where trend traders re-enter longs. Reclaim/hold above 4,617 shifts momentum to upside tests of 4,716/4,776/4,832.
• From 3,393 → 4,954 (bigger leg):
  • 38.2%: ~4,358
  • 50%: ~4,174
  • 61.8%: ~3,991
  • Aug 25 low 4,373 ≈ 38.2% tag and hold—bullish.

11. Candles and patterns

• Aug 25: long red candle into 4,373, high volume—capitulation-like flush to Fib support.
• Aug 26: strong green rebound, partially engulfing prior losses—bullish intent.
• Aug 27: small-bodied candle with lower tail; intraday rejections at 4,659 but higher low vs. Aug 26—indecision within constructive structure.
• Hourly: emerging ascending triangle under 4,660 resistance; a breakout candle through 4,660–4,670 with expanding volume would target ~4,715–4,725 initially (height of pattern ~90–110 points added to breakout level).

12. Volume, VWAP, and profile

• Daily volume peaked Aug 22 on the breakout, then remained elevated on pullback—healthy rotation. Last two sessions: falling volume with price holding up, which often precedes a directional move.
• Intraday VWAP (today): Price has whipsawed near VWAP/rolling AVWAP from the Aug 25 low; late session settled slightly below/around it—no decisive distribution. A VWAP reclaim alongside 4,660 break would be a go-signal.
• Volume profile (local): HVN around 4,58x–4,61x, LVN above 4,68x. Once above 4,660/4,670, thin air toward 4,71x–4,72x then 4,77x.

13. Pivot/quant confluence for targets

• R1 ≈ 4,716 (aligns with measured move from the triangle and the 38.2% → 50% transition band). R2 ≈ 4,832 aligns with prior supply. First objective is R1; second stretch target if momentum overdelivers.

14. Elliott Wave (heuristic)

• The 4,073→4,954 leg can be wave 3 of a larger advance; 4,954→4,373 corrective wave 4; current leg a nascent wave 5. If correct, new highs are possible later, but near-term (24h) the typical behavior is a controlled advance with shallow dips and resistance testing.

15. Harmonics (qualitative)

• The 4,954→4,373 pullback retraced ~38–41% of the prior impulse and found support close to an ideal bullish Gartley/AB=CD PRZ band around 4,35–4,40; bounce validates the zone. Harmonic context supports buying dips toward 4,55–4,51.

16. Risk scenarios

• Bull case (55%): Hold 4,560–4,580, break 4,660; momentum carry to 4,716 with potential extension to 4,776. Catalyzed by volume expansion and positive broader market tone.
• Base case (30%): More chop 4,540–4,660; slow drift higher toward 4,700 by session end as sellers exhaust.
• Bear case (15%): Stop-run under 4,535 toward 4,513 (50% Fib) and even 4,500 round number; dip is bought and price recovers back into the range.

17. Strategy synthesis and trade plan

• Why Buy: Medium-term uptrend intact, pullback held higher timeframe 38.2%, price above 20D SMA and Ichimoku Kijun, hourly structure forming higher lows with resistance increasingly fragile. Daily pivot R1 at 4,716 provides a logical 24h objective. Risk can be defined below 4,513 (50% retrace), offering attractive R:R from a 4,56x entry.
• Entry tactic: Place a limit buy at the range shelf/HVN near 4,560–4,565 to buy weakness toward support, rather than chasing resistance. Alternatively, breakout buy above 4,670 is valid but offers worse R:R; the plan here prioritizes an optimal dip entry.
• Targeting: First take-profit at 4,716–4,720 (pivot R1 and measured move objective). Secondary extension could be 4,776–4,780 if momentum expands, but the 24h target emphasizes R1.

18. Predicted price path (24h)

• Early: Test 4,560–4,570; if held, rotate up toward 4,615–4,660.
• Breakout window: A push through 4,660–4,670 with volume opens 4,71x quickly.
• Failure path: A wick under 4,540 could tag 4,513 before rebid; probability lower unless broader risk sells off.

Decision: Buy (Long). Optimal open price: 4,565 (dip to shelf/HVN). Close price: 4,718 (near pivot R1 and initial measured move), within a realistic 24h ATR move.

Risk notes

• If 4,513 fails on a closing basis, the setup weakens; a deeper retrace to 4,410–4,426 becomes likely. Not part of the base 24h case but relevant for invalidation planning.
• Volatility can spike; position sizing should reflect ATR ~350 points.