ETH balances on the 50% retrace: 4.3k base poised for a 24h squeeze toward 4.48k

Executive summary and 24h bias

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish mean-reversion from 4.34k toward 4.45–4.50k, contingent on 4.26–4.31k support holding. Expect choppy weekend liquidity with a 4.28k–4.45k core range and topside extension risk into 4.48–4.50k if momentum improves.
• Trade idea: Buy the dip near 4,330 with a protective stop under 4,258 (below today’s sweep) and target 4,478 within 24h. R:R ≈ 2:1.

1. Market structure, trend, and levels

• Primary trend (multi-week): Uptrend intact since late June/early July (from ~2.4k to the 4.95k high on Aug 24). Higher highs/higher lows on daily still valid despite the recent correction.
• Intermediate trend (last 2–3 weeks): Pullback from 4.95k into a series of lower highs (4,831 → 4,779 → 4,600 → 4,507 → 4,360), forming a falling channel/wedge on 4h. Price is probing base support zones.
• Short-term structure (last 24–48h): Double-bottom/undercut-and-reclaim behavior around 4,272 (Aug 29) and 4,266 (Aug 30) with a rebound to ~4,400 and a tight coil into the 4,340s. Intraday resistance band 4,395–4,412 capped bounces; supports 4,315–4,345 (intraday shelf) and 4,260–4,280 (liquidity sweep zone).
• Key levels
  • Supports: 4,260–4,280 (spring/sweep), 4,315–4,345 (intraday shelf), 4,199 (61.8% retrace of 3,697→4,954), 4,070 (approx lower daily Bollinger).
  • Resistances: 4,395–4,412 (hourly supply and 1h cloud/MA confluence), 4,489–4,507 (prior swing lows turned supply), 4,600 (pivot breakdown), 4,700–4,725 (0.618 retrace of the last down swing), 4,831/4,953 (major highs).

2. Moving averages and slope analysis

• 5D SMA ≈ 4,469; 10D SMA ≈ 4,529; 20D SMA ≈ 4,470 (estimates from the provided closes). Price (4,342) is below the 5/10/20D, indicating short-term corrective pressure but close enough to the 20D mean to favor reversion attempts.
• 50D SMA (approx 3.3–3.5k) and 200D SMA (≈3.0–3.2k) are well below price; medium/long-term uptrend intact.
• Implications: Short-term bearish bias vs daily MAs, but larger timeframe slope supports buying pullbacks at key fib/structural confluence.

3. Volatility and range

• Daily ATR (rough est.): 250–320; yesterday’s range 4,513→4,272 (~241); today 4,266→4,408 (~142 so far) with weekend compression.
• Expect 24h realized range ±200–250 around spot given weekend liquidity. Probable operating range: 4.28k–4.45k; with a topside extension to 4.48–4.50k if resistance at 4.41k breaks with volume, or a downside extension to 4.20k if 4.26k fails on a strong hourly close.

4. Oscillators and momentum

• RSI (daily): Likely cooled from overbought (>70) down to the neutral zone (~48–52). That favors mean reversion instead of trend continuation down.
• RSI (1h/4h): 1h registered oversold on the 4,266 sweep, rebounded to mid-40s; potential bullish divergence vs the prior day’s 4,272 low as price marginally undercut while momentum didn’t make a lower low. 4h RSI near midline; momentum flattening.
• MACD
  • Daily: Bearish crossover developing since Aug 27–29; momentum waning but not accelerating lower; histogram contraction suggests downside momentum is losing steam.
  • 1h/4h: Histogram stabilizing; early signs of a potential curl-up on 1h if price can reclaim/hold above 4,380–4,400.
• Stochastic: 1h hook up from oversold supports a near-term bounce; 4h in mid-range, leaves room either way but tends to align with a test of overhead resistance first.

5. Bands and channels

• Bollinger Bands (daily, 20,2): Midline near ~4,470; price below midline but above an estimated lower band near ~4,070. This supports a drift higher toward the midline on stabilization.
• Keltner/Donchian (intraday): 1h bands compressed after the morning bounce; a squeeze often precedes a directional impulse. Given the spring at 4,266 and buyer defense of ~4.33–4.35k, odds tilt to a topside break attempt toward 4.41–4.45k.
• 4h falling wedge/channel: Break trigger sits 4,41x–4,42x; measured move would target the 4.48–4.50k supply pocket.

6. Ichimoku

• Daily: Price remains above the cloud from the July breakout regime; pullback likely toward/around the Kijun (baseline). Typical behavior is mean-reversion to Kijun then resumption if trend is healthy.
• 1h: Price oscillating around/below the cloud with the cloud top near 4,40x–4,41x. A clean 1h close above 4,412 would flip short-term tone to constructive and can accelerate to 4,48–4,50k.

7. Fibonacci confluence

• From 3,697 (Jul 31) to 4,954 (Aug 24):
  • 38.2%: ~4,474 (near 20D SMA)
  • 50%: ~4,326 (today’s base area)
  • 61.8%: ~4,199 (next major downside if 4,26x fails)
• Price hovering just above the 50% retrace, a classic buy-the-dip zone in an uptrend, with invalidation below the sweep low.

8. Volume, OBV, MFI, and participation

• Volume profile: Heavy participation on Aug 22 breakout and Aug 25 flush; since then, mixed with signs of distribution near 4.5k and absorption near 4.3k.
• OBV/MFI (qualitative): OBV has flattened after strong accumulation; MFI likely in mid-40s to low-50s, consistent with balance rather than heavy sell pressure. Weekend volumes lighter; whipsaws possible.

9. Wyckoff lens

• The 4,26x sweep looks like a potential spring or shakeout beneath range support (4.31–4.34k), followed by a tentative sign of strength into ~4.40k and a low-volume pullback. Next, a successful test above 4,38–4,40k would set up a push to the top of the mini-range (4,41–4,45k) and possibly a mark-up toward 4,48–4,50k.

10. Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• Wave 3 likely peaked at ~4.95k; current decline can be an A–B–C or wave 4 into the 50% retrace zone (~4.33k). A wave-5 attempt would target a lower high first (4.60–4.70k) before any retest of 4.95k. Over 24h, the B leg bounce toward 4.47–4.50k is a reasonable objective if intraday resistance breaks.

11. Intraday VWAP/context

• While no full-session VWAP provided, price behavior shows repeated reversion attempts toward the 4,38–4,40k area. A VWAP reclaim and hold above 4,40k would favor a momentum push to 4,45k+.

12. Scenario analysis (24h)

• Base case (60%): Hold 4.31–4.35k, reclaim 4.40–4.41k, and extend to 4.45–4.48k. Close the session near 4.45k.
• Bear case (25%): Another liquidity sweep to 4.26–4.28k; if an hourly close holds above 4.30k after the sweep, bounce resumes; if not, risk opens to 4.20k (61.8% fib) before buyers try again.
• Bull extension (15%): Fast break above 4.41k with momentum, tags 4.50k and possibly wicks 4.53–4.60k on thin weekend books.

13. Trade plan and risk management

• Action: Buy (long) the dip near 4,330 with a stop at 4,258 (below today’s 4,266 low and under local liquidity). Initial target 4,478 within 24h.
• R:R and expectancy: Risk ~72 pts; reward ~148 pts; R:R ~2.05.
• Add/scale plan: If 4,412 breaks on rising 1h volume, consider adding 25–33% with a tightened trailing stop below 4,380 to target 4,485–4,500.
• Invalidation: 1h close below 4,258 invalidates the bounce thesis; next supports 4,199 and 4,070 (avoid catching a knife).

14. Candles and pattern cues

• Daily: After a series of red candles since Aug 27, today’s small-bodied session near support resembles indecision/doji characteristics—often a precursor to a bounce when appearing after a decline.
• 1h: Series of higher lows off 4,266, testing lower highs into 4,41k—mini ascending triangle dynamics within a bigger falling channel.

Bottom line

• With multi-timeframe trend still bullish, price testing the 50% retrace, signs of intraday seller exhaustion, and a nearby invalidation, risk/reward favors a tactical long for a 24h mean-reversion toward 4.45–4.48k. A clean 1h close above 4,412 likely accelerates the move; failure back below 4,258 shifts risk to 4,199.