ETH: Deep-Recall Rally Setup—SFP at 78.6% Fib Hints at a Push Toward the Mid‑4400s

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical review for ETH/US$ over the next 24 hours

Context snapshot

• Current price: 4338.33 (as of 2025-09-05 20:59 UTC). Day’s range (hourly bars): 4267.7–4484.4. Daily context (past ~3 weeks): post-spike consolidation after the Aug 22–24 thrust to ~4954, followed by a deep retrace into the low 4200s and a choppy range 4290–4490.
• Liquidity note: Some hourly bars show zero volume in feed; where volume is present it corroborates impulsive moves (07:00, 12:00, 15:00, 18:00–20:00 UTC today). Treat volume inferences as directional, not absolute.

1. Market structure and price action

• Daily structure: Higher timeframe uptrend from mid-July to Aug 24 (higher highs/lows), then an ABC-style correction: • A: 4954 → 4221/4206 (Aug 24 → Sep 1 zone) • B: 4221 → 4632 (Aug 26) • C: 4632 → 4268 (Sep 5 14:00 UTC intraday low) The 14:00 low today likely completes C near the 78.6–88.6% retracement zone of the Aug 19–24 impulse (see Fib section). Subsequent rebound suggests a potential local bottoming attempt.
• Intraday (1h) structure for Sep 5: • Morning impulse: 07:00 breakout to 4423; continuation to 4484 at 12:00. • Sharp liquidation: 12:00–14:00 reversal to 4268 (fast push below prior swing base near 4290/4310), followed by V-shaped recovery toward 4339–4342. • Pattern cue: A swing-failure pattern (SFP) of Sep 2/4 lows: price swept sub-4270 then closed back above 4290, trapping late shorts. This often precedes a 1–2 day mean-reversion higher.
• Key levels identified from recent sessions: • Supports: 4300–4320 (intraday reclaimed), 4270–4285 (SFP/stop-sweep), 4220–4250 (daily demand shelf), 4070 (major higher-timeframe pivot). • Resistances: 4389–4418 (hourly supply/VWAP vicinity), 4458–4476 (today’s midday supply; 12:00–13:00 cluster), 4489–4500 (Sep 3 daily resistance), 4620–4635, 4775–4785, 4930–4955.

2. Moving averages (trend filter)

• 20-day SMA (approx): ~4432. Current price ~2.1% below it → near lower half of the daily Bollinger midline, signaling short-term corrective bias within an intermediate uptrend.
• 50-day SMA (approx): likely in the high 3,700s to low 4,000s; price is above → medium-term trend still bullish.
• 100-day SMA: far below (low-to-mid 3,000s) → long-term trend intact.
• Read-through: Short-term pullback within a broader uptrend. A move back above ~4430–4450 would reassert momentum and reinforce buy-the-dip structures.

3. RSI, Stochastic, MACD (momentum suite)

• Daily RSI(14) (qualitative): hovering mid-40s to high-40s after a deep pullback; neither oversold nor overbought → room to push higher if bids persist.
• Daily MACD: post-Aug 24 bear cross with negative histogram but flattening during this week’s 4290–4490 range → sellers losing incremental control; momentum poised for a bull cross if price regains 4450–4500.
• Hourly RSI: dipped into oversold during the 14:00 flush; recovered to mid-range on the bounce → supports a short-term relief leg higher.
• Stochastic (1h/4h): Likely cycling up from oversold; confluence with the SFP increases odds of a near-term push into first resistance bands (4410–4470).

4. Bollinger Bands (volatility/mean reversion)

• Daily BB: Midline near the 20SMA (~4430). Given recent wide ranges, bands remain expanded; price currently below midline → statistical bias to revert toward ~4430–4450 if no new downside shock.
• Hourly BB: Bands widened on the 12:00–14:00 dump, then started compressing as price stabilized above 4300. With the mean now ~4360–4380 (estimate), a grind toward/through the center line is typical after a volatility event.

5. ATR and expected range

• Daily ATR (qualitative): Elevated (200–350+). A 24-hour move of $150–300 is feasible without extraordinary catalysts. From 4338, a reach toward mid-4400s is within one ATR.

6. Fibonacci mapping

• Rally leg: 4073 (Aug 19) → 4954 (Aug 24), Δ=~881. • 38.2%: ~4617; tagged on Aug 26 (4632) then rejected. • 50%: ~4513; acted as resistance early Sep. • 61.8%: ~4410; magnet zone repeatedly tested. • 78.6%: ~4262; today’s 4268 low essentially kissed this deep-retrace level.
• Interpretation: Deep retrace into the 78.6% zone + SFP is classic for a bullish Bat-type completion and often precedes a relief bounce back toward the 61.8%/50% levels (4410→4513) over the next sessions.

7. Ichimoku (trend + mean-reversion cues)

• Tenkan (9): around mid-4400s; Kijun (26): around ~4510 (using recent 26H/26L bounds ~4954/~4070).
• Price below Tenkan/Kijun → short-term corrective. However, the higher-timeframe cloud remains supportive (trend up). Typical sequence after a deep dip: reversion to Tenkan (~4450–4460) before any decisive trend decision at Kijun (~4510).

8. VWAP and anchored VWAP (intraday fairness)

• Session VWAP (today): likely mid-4360s to low-4370s considering morning pop, midday flush, and late-day recovery. Current 4338 sits slightly below → small intraday mean-reversion tailwind if buyers defend 4310–4330.
• Anchored VWAP from the Aug 19 low would sit in the mid-to-upper 4400s given heavy transactions in the mid- to high-4Ks during late Aug. Reclaiming and holding above ~4450 would flip short-term inventory positive.

9. Volume/OBV read

• Spike volumes on impulsive legs (Aug 22 breakout; Sep 5 morning and midday) with decent absorption below 4300. OBV (qualitative) has flattened post selloff; no aggressive distribution over the last 3–4 sessions. This supports stabilization and a tactical bounce case.

10. Harmonics and pattern confluence

• Bullish Bat completion near 0.786–0.886 of the Aug 19–24 leg at ~4260–4280, with a wick to 4268 and immediate reclaim → textbook.
• Intraday: potential inverse H&S forming with head ~4268, shoulders ~4300–4310; neckline ~4415–4420. If confirmed, standard measured move projects into mid-4470s.

11. Regression channel (short-term)

• Fit to Sep 1–5 data indicates a gentle downward channel, with price now at/near the lower boundary after the 14:00 sweep. Mean-reversion to the channel midline aligns with 4405–4425 in the next sessions; a push to the upper rail implies 4460–4475.

12. Liquidity and stop-maps

• Below: 4290, 4270, 4250, 4220 pools from recent lows. The 14:00 sweep already harvested much of the obvious liquidity; repeated runs below 4270 would likely seek 4220–4250.
• Above: 4389/4418 (today/this week’s intraday highs), 4460–4476 (supply), 4489–4500 (daily sell wall). A move through 4418 often accelerates toward 4460s as shorts cover.

13. Scenario synthesis (24h)

• Base case (55%): Stabilization above 4310–4330, grind through 4389/4418, test 4458–4476. Close/settle near mid-4400s.
• Bear risk (30%): Failure to reclaim 4389/4418, drift back to 4290–4310; one more stop-run into 4250–4270 before rebounding.
• Bull extension (15%): Clean break and hold above 4476, quick probe of 4490–4515 (Kijun/50% Fib). Less likely in the next 24h without a catalyst, but possible given ATR.

14. Strategy conclusion

• Bias: Tactical long. Rationale: SFP at 78.6% Fib, intraday momentum turn from oversold, proximity to lower regression/BB bands, and multiple mean-reversion signals toward 4410–4460. Short-term trend is corrective, but probabilities favor a bounce attempt before any renewed downside.
• Execution preference: Buy-the-dip limit in the 4315–4325 demand pocket to improve R:R; target the 4460–4470 supply shelf just beneath today’s 12:00–13:00 failure and Ichimoku Tenkan zone.
• Risk framing (informational): A prudent stop (not required here) would sit below 4258–4265 to invalidate the SFP/Bat completion. That yields a constructive R:R aiming mid-4400s.

Predicted 24h path: Chop 4320–4380 in Asia session, attempt 4415–4420 breakout; if sustained, extension toward 4458–4470 where supply likely responds. Probability-weighted close bias: 4425–4465.