ETH poised for a pivot-bounce: Buy the dip at S1, aim for the 4.72–4.75k supply

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Moderately bullish (buy-the-dip favored). Expect a bounce from 4580–4605 support toward 4680 pivot and possibly 4720–4750 if momentum re-accelerates.
• Optimal tactic: Staggered long entries near S1/support; take profit just ahead of R1/supply.

1. Market context and structure

• Higher timeframe trend (Daily): Strong uptrend from late June ($2.3k) to late August peak ($4.95k), followed by a September consolidation and renewed strength. Structure remains higher highs and higher lows; the pullbacks have been shallow, consistent with a bullish intermediate trend.
• Medium term (Last 3–4 weeks): Post Aug 24 high, ETH corrected sharply to ~$4.07k (Aug 19), then staged a series of higher lows (Sep 1 low 4314, Sep 6/7 trough ~4274–4305, Sep 10 trough 4349 to higher close 4461 on Sep 11). Sep 12 breakout to 4734 confirms buyers in control. Current price is a pullback within that advance.
• Short term (24–48h, 1h chart): Range-bound consolidation 4582–4689 over the past day. Slight intraday lower-high sequence (4689 → 4669 → 4642) but sitting on strong daily support; risk-reward favors a bounce attempt.

2. Key levels (multi-timeframe confluence)

• Support/demand: 4580–4605 (hourly floor, daily S1 pivot, prior breakout retest); 4524–4535 (50% retrace of Sep leg, weekly S1); 4475–4480 (61.8% retrace of Sep swing, prior acceptance).
• Resistance/supply: 4680–4690 (daily pivot/P, hourly supply); 4720–4735 (daily resistance cluster, prior daily high 4734); 4750–4765 (R1 to next supply shelf); 4780–4800 (late-Aug congestion).
• Trendlines/channels: An ascending daily trendline from early Sep projects near 4590–4600 today; price is testing it, favoring a technical bounce.

3. Momentum and oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): Estimated mid-to-high 50s/low 60s (bullish but not overbought). That suggests room to the upside before encountering overbought signals.
• 1h RSI(14): Around mid-40s after the intraday drift lower; near neutral-bearish but with positive divergence potential against the 4582–4586 lows.
• Stochastics (1h): Cycling up from oversold during support tests; often aligns with short-term bounces in range conditions.

4. Moving averages (trend confirmation)

• Daily 20-EMA: Approx mid-4.5k (likely ~4520–4550). Price above the 20-EMA supports bullish momentum continuation.
• Daily 50-EMA: Rising and well below spot (low-to-mid 4.2–4.3k). Large positive slope confirms the higher-timeframe uptrend.
• 1h 50/200-EMA: Price oscillating around the 1h MAs during consolidation; reclaiming 4665–4670 on a closing basis would reassert intraday momentum.

5. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (daily, 20,2): Price has reverted toward the mid-band after approaching the upper band on Sep 12. Room exists to push back toward the upper band (near 4720–4760) if momentum returns.
• Keltner Channels (daily): Price near midline; no extreme extension—supports continued trend-following buys on dips.
• ATR (daily): Recent true range ~150–300 points. Today’s plan targets a 120–140 point advance (from ~4590 to ~4725), within typical daily range.

6. Ichimoku (trend-state cross-check)

• Daily: Price well above the cloud with a rising Kijun; trend is bullish. Tenkan likely near 4620–4650; Kijun ~4450–4520. Pullback toward Tenkan is normal within trend.
• 1h: Price probing around/below Tenkan/Kijun; reclaiming 4665–4675 would align price above the 1h baseline and favor a push to 4685–4720.

7. MACD and breadth

• Daily MACD: Positive and rising since late Aug, histogram easing post-Sep 12 but still constructive—momentum cooling, not reversing.
• 1h MACD: Bearish earlier today with a flattening histogram near zero; a cross up on a reclaim of 4665–4675 would likely accompany an impulsive test of 4689.

8. Fibonacci mapping

• Sep swing: Low 4314.47 (Sep 1) to high 4734.27 (Sep 12).
  • 38.2%: ~4574.9 (just below current).
  • 50%: ~4524.4.
  • 61.8%: ~4475.2. Current price ~4598 sits just above 38.2%, a shallow retracement consistent with trend continuation. A bounce from 4575–4600 is statistically favored in uptrends.
• Micro swing (Sep 13–14): 4582 to 4689 range → mid at ~4635; reclaiming 4635/4669 sequentially is the path to 4689/4720.

9. Pivots (classic)

• Using Sep 13 H/L/C: H=4763.36, L=4609.13, C=4668.18
  • Pivot P ≈ 4680.22
  • S1 ≈ 4597.08 (current price sits exactly on S1)
  • R1 ≈ 4751.31
  • S2 ≈ 4526.13
  • R2 ≈ 4834.45 Tactical read: Bounces from S1 back to P are common; extension to R1 is achievable if breadth improves Monday.

10. Volume and flow

• Volume swells on breakouts (Aug 22, Sep 12), validating trend pushes. Weekend intraday volumes are lighter; liquidity improves into Monday, favoring continuation moves that seek obvious levels (pivot, R1).
• Recent hourly sell spurts into 4582–4590 were absorbed without breakdown. Demand remains in that pocket.

11. Pattern diagnostics

• Bullish flag/rectangle on 1h between 4582–4689 after a push from ~4461 to 4715 earlier in the week. Flags within uptrends resolve upward more often than not.
• No topping pattern confirmed on daily; instead, a controlled consolidation beneath resistance—constructive for continuation.

12. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (60%): Hold 4580–4605, rebound to the daily pivot 4680, then probe 4720–4735. Close near 4695–4725.
• Range case (25%): Chop 4560–4680, failure to reclaim pivot; close ~4620–4660.
• Downside tail (15%): Loss of 4580 on sustained volume, slide to S2/50% retrace 4525–4535; buyers defend there. Rapid mean-revert possible afterward.

13. Trade plan and risk-reward

• Thesis: Trend-following buy-the-dip at S1/ascending trendline confluence with upside to pivot and R1 cluster.
• Entry: Optimal near 4585–4595. Using a limit near 4590 seeks fill on minor liquidity sweeps while avoiding chasing.
• Target: 4720–4750 zone (below R1/under supply). Take profit before heavy overhead at 4734–4751.
• Invalidation (not required by prompt but prudent): A daily/hourly close below 4525 would weaken the long setup (move to 4475 likely). A tactical stop below 4525 preserves favorable R/R (~1:2+ depending on stop placement).

14. Cross-checks and risks

• Correlation risk: If BTC weakens on Monday’s macro open, ETH could retest 4525 despite its relative strength.
• Event/volatility risk: Monday liquidity can amplify moves; manage slippage.
• Overhead supply at 4680/4720/4750 must be respected; partials on the way up can improve expectancy.

Conclusion

• Multiple tool confluence (trend, Fibonacci 38.2% hold, classic S1 support, ascending trendline, daily uptrend intact) favors a Buy-the-dip plan. Expect a push toward 4680 and 4720–4750 over the next 24 hours if 4580–4600 holds.