ETH poised to spring from the golden pocket: Pivot reclaim sets sights on 4,618

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis for ETH/USD (Next 24 hours)

As of timestamp 2025-09-17T21:01Z, ETH trades at $4,503.01. Below is a step-by-step, tool-rich analysis combining trend, momentum, volatility, volume, and price-structure signals from the provided daily and intraday (hourly) data.

1. Market structure and trend context

• Higher time frame (Daily):
  • Since early September (Sep 6 low ~4,274), ETH established higher lows and advanced to Sep 12 high ~4,715, followed by a controlled pullback into the 4,50x area. This is a textbook bull trend continuation setup: impulsive leg up, retracement into a Fibonacci pocket, stabilization.
  • Structure: HH at 4,715 (Sep 12), HL sequence at 4,274 → 4,314 → current 4,50x zone after a 50–61.8% pullback of the 4,274→4,715 leg. Daily structure remains bullish until daily closes below ~4,370–4,420.
• Medium/short time frame (Hourly Sep 16–17):
  • Intraday low today at 4,429.6 was aggressively bought, with a rebound to ~4,520 the next hour and consolidation near 4,500 into the 20:00–21:00 candles. This shows responsive buying in the 4,43x–4,46x demand zone.
  • Price reclaimed and oscillates around the session pivot region, consistent with accumulation rather than distribution.

2. Key support/resistance and confluence zones

• Supports:
  • 4,437–4,442 (Classic S1 from today’s pivots; also near 61.8% retrace of 4,715→4,429 intraday swing)
  • 4,456–4,468 (Golden pocket area from the Sep 12 high pullback; Kijun proximity—see Ichimoku)
  • 4,372 (S2 from today’s pivots; daily shelf from Aug 25 close)
• Resistances:
  • 4,560 (R1), 4,618 (R2) from today’s pivots (computed below)
  • 4,600–4,610 (round number + prior reaction zone)
  • 4,668–4,715 (recent swing high supply band)

3. Pivot points (Classic, based on today’s H/L/C)

• H = 4,552.56, L = 4,429.64, C = 4,503.01
• P = (H + L + C) / 3 = (4552.56 + 4429.64 + 4503.01) / 3 ≈ 4,495.07
• R1 = 2P − L ≈ 4,560.50
• S1 = 2P − H ≈ 4,437.58
• R2 = P + (H − L) ≈ 4,617.99
• S2 = P − (H − L) ≈ 4,372.15 Observation: Today’s price action respected the S1 area (4,43x–4,44x) and gravitated back to the pivot (∼4,495), often a precursor to a push toward R1/R2 on the next session if trend context is bullish.

4. Fibonacci mapping

• Daily swing (Sep 6 low 4,274 → Sep 12 high 4,715): Range = 441.
  • 38.2% retrace ≈ 4,546.7; 50% ≈ 4,494.5; 61.8% ≈ 4,442.1.
  • Price traded through the 38.2% and stabilized between 50% and 61.8%, a high-probability continuation pocket. The intraday low (4,429.6) slightly pierced 61.8% then reclaimed—typical “golden pocket” spring.
• Larger swing (Aug 22 spike 4,831 → Sep 1 trough 4,314): Recoveries above 61.8% were achieved on Sep 12 (4,715), confirming medium-term bullish control.

5. Moving averages (Daily approximations)

• 20SMA ≈ 4,47x (midband for recent pullback); price currently slightly above/near this level—bullish mean-reversion achieved.
• 50SMA ≈ low–mid 4,3xx–4,4xx (given August volatility); price > 50SMA, supportive of uptrend.
• 200SMA (far below ~3,3xx–3,6xx range given historical prints), firmly below price—macro trend up. Signal: With price above 20/50/200 SMAs and consolidating near the 20SMA, the path of least resistance remains up, barring a decisive loss of ~4,44x.

6. Momentum indicators

• RSI (Daily): Post 4,715 high, RSI likely cooled from near overbought into the low–mid 50s; this is constructive reset without breaking bullish regime (>50 zone typically trend-supportive).
• RSI (1H): The 18:00 dip to 4,456 likely produced a higher RSI low versus the 04:00–05:00 region despite a marginal price lower low—a potential bullish divergence. Subsequent rebound to 4,520 validates the divergence.
• MACD (Daily): MACD line above zero after the Sep advance, histogram contracting during the pullback; signs of re-expansion are probable if price pushes through 4,560–4,600.
• MACD (1H): Bearish phase into 18:00 turned into a nascent bullish cross with momentum building toward R1. Interpretation: Momentum reset on daily and re-acceleration on hourly favors an upside resolution toward 4,56x/4,62x in the next 24h.

7. Volatility and ranges

• Daily ATR(14) (est.): ~170–200 points (based on recent ranges of 120–250). Expect a 24h envelope of roughly ±2.5–3.5% from the mean, i.e., 4,430–4,620 as a reasonable operative range.
• Today’s true range ≈ 123 points (4,552–4,429), mid-ATR. This leaves room for an upside extension to the R2 band (~4,618) without being statistically stretched.

8. Bollinger Bands (Daily)

• Middle band (20SMA) ≈ 4,47x; upper band ≈ mid–high 4,7xx; lower band ≈ low 4,2xx.
• Price is re-anchoring near the middle band after touching the upper band last week—typical continuation behavior where the next impulsive attempt targets the upper band again. A push to 4,62x aligns with a mid-band to upper-band trajectory start.

9. Ichimoku (Daily and 1H approximations)

• Daily: Price > Cloud; Kijun-sen likely ~4,45x–4,47x; Tenkan around ~4,58x–4,60x after the pop and pullback. Price dipping to Kijun and bouncing is a classic bullish continuation signal.
• 1H: Price reclaimed/hovered around Tenkan/Kijun after the 18:00 washout; forward cloud likely flat-to-slightly rising near 4,50x, favoring mean-reversion higher when combined with higher time frame strength.

10. Volume, OBV, and order-flow reads

• Volume spikes on selloffs (18:00 hour) followed by immediate absorption and a strong counter-candle to 4,520 the next hour suggest demand dominance near 4,44x–4,46x.
• OBV (conceptual): The three-day advance into Sep 12 increased OBV materially. The subsequent pullback appears on lower relative volume versus the upthrust days, indicating a corrective, not distributive, nature.
• Volume profile (recent weeks): High-activity nodes near 4,45x–4,50x (acceptance) and a low-volume pocket above 4,56x toward 4,60x+ may facilitate fast travel once R1 is cleared.

11. Candlestick and pattern analysis

• 1H: The 18:00 candle resembles a demand-tail/hammer with follow-through, often marking a local swing low. Subsequent candles maintained above 4,49x pivot—bullish.
• Daily: Pullback body sizes are moderate and not climactic; no bearish engulfing of the entire prior impulse. The pattern resembles a bull flag/descending channel resolving into support with a potential breakout toward 4,62x–4,66x.

12. ADX/Trend strength (qualitative)

• ADX daily is likely in the low–mid 20s after the recent trend resumption; conditions are ripe for another expansion leg if resistance bands give way.

13. Wyckoff/Market cycle lens

• The dip to 4,429 looks like a spring/shakeout under 4,44x support, immediately reclaimed. The quick recovery to the pivot aligns with a phase C→D transition (test and markup), setting the stage for a push toward R1/R2.

14. VWAP and intraday mean reversion

• Session VWAP (est.) is near the pivot 4,49x–4,50x given balanced trading. Price reclaiming VWAP after a flush supports a long-biased intraday thesis into upper bands.

15. Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• Sep 6→Sep 12 appears impulsive (wave 3). The current 50–61.8% pullback aligns with a wave 4 corrective zone. A measured wave 5 attempt could target prior highs (4,66x–4,71x). Within the next 24h, a conservative expectation is to reach early targets (R1/R2) before confronting the heavier 4,66x supply.

16. Risk management and invalidation

• Bullish thesis is invalidated on sustained hourly closes below S1 (4,437) and especially below 4,372 (S2) which would break the recent HL structure and open a path toward 4,31x–4,33x.
• Expected 24h operating range: 4,435–4,620 with a bullish skew (~60–65% odds of testing 4,56x–4,62x before any deeper retrace), given the confluence of supports at 4,44x–4,50x and momentum reset.

17. Strategy synthesis → Trade plan

• Bias: Buy the dip / Buy the pivot.
• Optimal entry: Around the daily pivot 4,495 (limit buy), allowing minor whipsaws below 4,500 to fill. This captures confluence with 50% retrace of the Sep leg.
• Profit target (next 24h): R2 ≈ 4,618 (first major take-profit where supply likely appears). Secondary stretch target 4,660–4,670 is possible but beyond the primary 24h objective; use as an optional runner if managing actively.
• Stop (for risk control, not part of required output): Below S1 (e.g., 4,432–4,436), or more conservatively below S2 (≈4,372) depending on risk tolerance.

Conclusion and 24h forecast

• With confluence of: golden-pocket retest, pivot reclaim, bullish 1H divergence and demand absorption at 4,43x–4,46x, supportive MAs, and healthy momentum reset, the base case is a drift/higher grind toward 4,560 (R1) and a test of 4,618 (R2) within 24 hours. Pullbacks toward 4,49x are buyable while S1 holds.