Ethereum Price Analysis Powered by AI

ETH poised to reattack 4.7k: buy the 4.59k pullback for a run toward R2

Executive summary

Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish continuation within an established uptrend. Expect a test of 4,663 (R1) and a run toward 4,710–4,735 if 4,638–4,668 breaks and holds. Primary plan: buy pullbacks into 4,588–4,605 with invalidation below 4,552–4,557.
Current price: 4,604.68
24h expected range (ATR-based): 4,540–4,720 (extensions to 4,735–4,760 possible on momentum)
Key levels: Support 4,603/4,595 VWAP/MA confluence, 4,588–4,590, 4,562–4,566 (Fib 38.2%), 4,552–4,557 (session low + buffer), 4,526 swing low. Resistance 4,624–4,636 (hourly highs), 4,663 (R1), 4,690–4,715, 4,734 (R2), 4,756–4,788 (August supply).

Daily structure: Higher highs and higher lows since early September (9/1 low 4,314 → 9/12 high 4,715 → 9/15 HL 4,527 → current 4,60x). Price sits above the rising 20DMA and well above the 50DMA, keeping the primary trend up.
4h/1h structure: Sideways-to-up channel for ~36 hours. Local higher-low sequence from 4,557 (06:00) to 4,583–4,591. A flat-ish cap near 4,624–4,636 suggests an emerging ascending triangle; a sustained break above 4,636–4,668 unlocks 4,690+.

Daily: Recent candles form a tight consolidation flag under the 9/12 spike high (4,715). Upper shadows have been sold slightly, but bodies remain above the mid-BB/20DMA — constructive digestion versus outright rejection.
Intraday: The last 24h carved a balanced range 4,557–4,644 with buyers active on dips toward 4,57x–4,59x and offers stacked around 4,62x–4,63x. The last hourly pushes show higher closes on modestly improving volume late session — early sign of absorption above 4,60k.

20DMA (approx): ~4,50–4,55k; price above → bullish.
50DMA (approx): ~4,00–4,15k; strong bullish separation.
20HMA/50HMA: Price oscillating just above the intraday MAs (centered around ~4,595–4,605), reinforcing the 4,59x–4,60x pullback buy zone. Slope of short MAs is positive to flat — consistent with a coiling market primed for a push.

Daily: Middle band near the 20DMA (~4,52k). Upper band estimated ~4,80k; lower ~4,24–4,28k. Current 4,60x is slightly above the midline, leaving room to expand higher toward the upper band. Post-breakout flags commonly resolve to retest upper band.
Hourly: Price hugging the mid-to-upper band; small band width reflects compression — often preceding expansion. Break above 4,636 likely triggers an upper-band walk toward 4,66x/4,69x.

Daily RSI (est.): High-50s/low-60s — constructive, not overbought. Room to push toward 65–70 if resistance breaks.
Hourly RSI: Oscillating around 50–55 with higher troughs, supportive of a nudge higher. Expect momentum to firm on a clean 4,636–4,668 break.
Stochastics (1h/4h): Mid-range and curling up, consistent with a base-to-break pattern rather than exhaustion.

Daily: MACD above zero with a flattened histogram after the 9/12 surge — consolidation rather than reversal; bullish continuation favored if histogram turns up.
4h/1h: Signal lines near or slightly above zero; a cross-up on a breakout would validate momentum through R1/R2.

Volume: Post-9/12, volumes normalized but remain healthy. Dips to 4,55x–4,59x find buyers, indicating proactive accumulation.
OBV/CMF (inferred): Sideways-to-up since 9/15; no clear distribution at the top of the recent range. Net takeaway: Dips continue to be absorbed.

Daily ATR(14) (est.): ~200–250. 24h expected range ~±220 from current puts 4,38x–4,82x as extreme, but base case 4,54–4,72 given intraday realized vol. Compression on the hourly suggests a near-term expansion — direction biased up given trend/context.

Daily: Price > cloud; Tenkan likely ~4,58x, Kijun ~4,46x; Chikou above price. Bullish stack; Tenkan recently reclaimed implies responsive support 4,57x–4,59x.
4h: Prices above a thin cloud; lagging span clear. Bullish continuation favored barring a sudden loss of 4,55x.

Swing 9/1 low (4,314) to 9/12 high (4,715): 38.2% ~4,562; 50% ~4,514; 61.8% ~4,466. Price bounced above 50% and reclaimed 38.2% — constructive higher-low behavior.
Pullback 9/12 4,715 → 9/15 4,527: 61.8% retrace back up ~4,638. This aligns with the intraday cap; a decisive break/hold >4,638 is the trigger toward 4,690–4,735.
Intraday 9/18 low 4,557 → 9/18 high 4,636: 61.8% ~4,603 — exactly where price is basing now, offering a tactically attractive pullback entry.

Pivot P ≈ 4,546.5; S1 ≈ 4,475.8; R1 ≈ 4,663.4; S2 ≈ 4,359.0; R2 ≈ 4,734.1.
We’re above P and below R1. Typical path in an uptrend day: test R1, consolidate, then attempt R2 if momentum confirms. These line up with Fibonacci and recent highs, strengthening the roadmap.

Today’s VWAP (inferred) ~4,600. Price oscillates just above/around it; reclaim and hold >VWAP after dips is a hallmark of buyer control in balanced sessions. An afternoon/Mid-US session shift above 4,62x with VWAP sloping up would indicate initiative buying.

Daily ADX moderate (~20–25). Trend is present but not overextended; ideal for grindy continuation rather than blow-off.

Count from 9/1: Wave 1 up to 4,715; Wave 2 down to 4,527; Wave 3 developing. Within this, a smaller-degree triangle/flag is likely the (iv) pause before (v) tests 4,71x–4,73x. Invalidation for this view sits below 4,526.

Ascending triangle pressure vs. 4,636; strong confluence support 4,588–4,605 (VWAP + hourly 20MA + 61.8% intraday Fib). Pivots/Fibs project 4,663 (R1) then 4,734 (R2) — both mapping well to prior supply at 4,690–4,715 and August’s 4,756–4,788 band. Risk is clean: below 4,552–4,557 breaks the intraday structure and opens 4,526/4,466.

Base case (60%): Break and hold above 4,636–4,668 → push to 4,690–4,715; extension toward 4,730–4,735 (R2) possible if momentum improves.
Range case (30%): 4,565–4,635 chop around VWAP/20HMA; slow drift higher by close without a decisive breakout.
Bear case (10%): Loss of 4,557 leads to 4,526 test; below that exposes 4,466–4,475 (S1/61.8% daily Fib). This would negate the short-term long setup.

Direction: Buy (Long).
Entry: Prefer buy-the-dip in the 4,588–4,605 zone (confluence of intraday 61.8% retrace ~4,603, VWAP/20HMA cluster, repeated buyer response). Alternatively, breakout add above 4,638–4,668 on volume.
Stop (invalidation guidance): 4,553 (below session low 4,557 and under Fib/VWAP cluster). Structural invalidation below 4,526 (swing low).
Take profit: Scale near 4,663 (R1) and 4,710–4,735 (prior high band/R2). For this call, headline TP set at 4,728 to front-run R2/supply.
R:R (dip entry 4,592, SL 4,553, TP 4,728): Risk ~39, Reward ~136 → ~3.5:1.

Hourly close <4,557 followed by failure to reclaim 4,588–4,595 on retest.
Daily close back below the 20DMA (~4,52–4,55k) would convert the current flag into a deeper retrace toward 4,46x.

Bottom line

With trend, momentum base, and multi-tool confluence at 4,59x, odds favor a measured continuation toward 4,66x then 4,71x–4,73x within 24 hours, while keeping tight invalidation below 4,55x. Buy-the-dip remains the optimal tactic over chasing, unless a high-volume breakout above 4,668 materializes.