ETH: Sell the Bounce Into Supply, Aim for a 4,100 Retest Within 24 Hours

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Short-term bearish continuation after a heavy breakdown, with a likely relief pop first. Base case path: early bounce into 4225–4285 supply, then fade toward 4120–4075 as sellers reload. Net lower-high and lower-low expected within 24 hours.
• Trade idea: Sell the bounce (short) into the 4240–4290 zone where multiple resistances cluster (intraday VWAP bands, prior support-turned-resistance, Fib bounce levels, hourly MA stack), targeting a retest of 4135/4100.
• Risk context: Range expansion day, elevated volatility; expect 250–350 points of daily range. Use disciplined risk controls; invalidation on strong reclaim and hold above ~4345–4360.

Price action and structure

• Daily structure: Since the 9/12 swing high at ~4734, ETH has printed a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. The 9/21–9/22 break under the 4470/4450 pivot accelerated, closing around 4187 after a 4103 intraday low. The loss of 4300–4350 (multi-touch support from 8/31 onward) is a material change in character.
• Hourly structure (last 24h): A waterfall move from ~4455 to 4103 at 06:00 UTC created a local capitulation wick, followed by a weak grind back to ~4200. Rallies have stalled below 4220–4230; sellers kept control into 19:00 (new session low 4135) before a modest bounce to ~4186–4190. The pattern remains lower highs on the hourlies.
• Key levels • Resistance: 4220–4235 (hourly supply), 4245–4290 (prior shelf + Fib bounce cluster + hourly MA confluence), 4340–4355 (0.382 bounce from 4734→4103 leg and prior HVN), 4460–4480 (broken trend pivot), 4495 (61.8% bounce of the 4734→4103 leg). • Support: 4145–4135 (hourly reaction low), 4105–4095 (today’s spike zone), 4073 (8/19–8/20 pivotal low), 3975–3985 (38.2% retrace of the June→Aug impulse), 3900.
• Candles • Daily: Wide red candle with a long lower shadow. Selling pressure dominated, but dip buyers responded near 4100. Often signals a day-two mean reversion pop that struggles at resistance if the broader trend is down. • Hourly: Multiple small-bodied candles under declining MAs; no strong reversal candle. Suggests bounces are corrective, not impulsive.

Trend, moving averages, and dynamic levels

• Daily MAs • Price is below the 20-day EMA (approx mid- to upper-4400s) and below/near the 50-day EMA (approx low-4200s). Losing and not reclaiming the 50EMA on a closing basis is bearish for the next 1–3 sessions. • 100/200-day MAs (approx high-3000s to low-3000s) remain below price, so the larger cycle is still constructive; however, the tactical window is risk-off.
• Hourly MAs • 20/50/100-hour MAs are stacked bearishly and curling down above price, creating dynamic resistance in the 4225–4280 band. Expect sellers to defend these on first touch.
• VWAP • Intraday VWAP sits near ~4200; price oscillated around it without a decisive reclaim. Anchored VWAP from the 9/12 high likely sits near ~4350, a strong overhead cap on any sharp bounce.

Momentum and oscillators

• RSI • Daily RSI slipped into the low-to-mid 40s with a negative slope; no clean bullish divergence versus the 9/19–9/20 close cluster. Room exists to probe the high 30s if supports fail. • Hourly RSI recovered from oversold near the 06:00 wick but remains sub-50 on rallies, typical of bearish consolidations. Minor positive momentum swings are fading beneath prior RSI peaks.
• MACD • Daily MACD is below signal with a widening negative histogram; downside momentum dominant. • Hourly MACD is trying to curl from deeply negative, consistent with a relief bounce, but not yet indicative of a trend reversal.
• DMI/ADX (qualitative read) • ADX rising with -DI over +DI on daily and hourly frames; trend strength favors shorts until +DI crosses back above or ADX rolls over.

Volatility and bands

• ATR (14D) expanded through September; a 24h realized range of 250–350 points is plausible. Position sizing should reflect this.
• Bollinger Bands • Daily: Price rode the lower band on the breakdown; mean reversion targets the mid-band around ~4300 if a bounce forms, while a continued band walk risks a 4100 test. • Hourly: Bands are modestly widening again after a contraction; volatility risk remains elevated into the U.S. session overlap.

Ichimoku (contextual)

• Daily: Price sits below Tenkan and Kijun; cloud support from the prior uptrend is not decisively in play yet. Until Tenkan is reclaimed (~4400 region), momentum bias remains down.
• Hourly: Price under the Kumo; baseline and conversion lines above price act as near-term dynamic resistance (~4220–4260).

Fibonacci mapping

• June 25 low (~2449) to Aug 24 high (~4954) • 23.6% retrace ≈ 4351 (lost), 38.2% ≈ 3978. Current price 4187 sits between these, keeping the larger impulse intact but allowing a deeper corrective leg toward ~3980 if 4100/4070 give way.
• 9/12 high (4734) to 9/22 intraday low (4103) • 38.2% bounce ≈ 4344, 50% ≈ 4419, 61.8% ≈ 4494. Expect strong supply before 4350. A failure beneath the 38.2% bounce level is classic bear-flag behavior.
• Symmetry (A=C) for an ABC correction from 8/22/8/24 highs suggests measured support clustering 4070–4000; today’s spike aligned with the top end of that band.

Volume, liquidity, and profile

• Today’s daily volume (through 20:59 UTC) surged, confirming the breakdown. High-volume breakdowns usually see first-bounce sellers in the next session.
• Visible range profile (qualitative): A prominent high-volume node sits near 4300–4350 from late Aug to mid-Sep trading; price below this node tends to be repelled on first test. A lighter-volume pocket exists around 4200; price can traverse this zone quickly, enhancing the sell-the-bounce edge into 4240–4290.
• OBV tilt: The last week shows OBV lower highs; distribution outweighs accumulation.

Pattern diagnostics

• Descending channel on the hourly from 9/12: bounces have capped near the channel midline; the next midline test projects to ~4250–4275.
• Bear flag risk: Post-crash drift under 4220 resembles consolidation within a flag. A measured move from the flag would re-target 4100/4070 on breakdown.
• No reliable bottoming pattern yet (no double bottom confirmation or strong reversal engulfing on higher timeframe).

Cross-checks and confluence

• Overhead cluster: 4245–4290 combines hourly MA stack, Bollinger mid-band, channel midline, prior support-turned-resistance, and VWAP bands. This is the highest-probability sell zone.
• Downside magnets: 4135 (hourly pivot), 4100–4090 (liquidity sweep zone), 4073 (daily swing low). If momentum persists, a wick into 4050–4020 is feasible before any stronger bounce.

Scenario probabilities (qualitative)

• 55%: Bounce to 4240–4290 then fade to 4135–4090 (base case).
• 30%: Weak bounce stalls sub-4230, straight grind lower to 4070–4020.
• 15%: Squeeze through 4310–4350 (38.2% bounce), extending to 4400–4420 before rolling over; would reassess short bias on sustained hold above 4355.

Risk management guideposts (for planning)

• Invalidation for shorts: Sustained reclaim and hold above 4345–4360 (back above 0.382 bounce and the late-Aug HVN) would suggest a stronger corrective squeeze toward 4420–4490.
• Practical stop placement: 4355–4370 for tactical shorts initiated in 4240–4290, balancing noise vs. protection.

Outlook summary for next 24 hours

• Expect a relief rally attempt that fails under layered resistance, followed by renewed selling that probes 4135 and likely 4100–4070. Volatility remains elevated; whipsaws possible, but structure and momentum still favor selling strength rather than buying weakness.

Trade plan distilled

• Edge: Sell the bounce into 4240–4290 with a target near 4110–4135. This aligns with trend, momentum, and volume profile confluence while taking advantage of mean reversion toward resistance before continuation lower.
• Timeframe: 24 hours with flexibility to scale in on approach to 4240 and scale out into 4135/4110.
• Note: If the market skips the bounce and breaks 4135 early, do not chase lows; wait for a breakdown-and-retest or a fresh lower-high under 4200 for better risk-reward.