Ethereum Price Analysis Powered by AI

ETH teeters below broken support: Sell the bounce into 3950–4000, target 3800

Executive summary and next-24h path

Bias: Bearish. The multi-week range (≈4220–4460) has broken decisively. Today produced a wide-range breakdown day with a capitulation-style intraday flush to 3829 and only a modest bounce into the close at 3888.
Primary expectation (next 24h): Relief bounce into 3950–4000 (38.2–50% intraday retrace and daily pivot confluence), then sellers re-assert toward 3820–3800. Secondary tail-risk paths: squeeze to 4030–4050 (61.8% retrace/VWAP/overhead supply) or continuation washout to 3758 (S1) if bounce fails quickly.
Trade plan: Sell the bounce into the 3950–3965 confluence zone; take profit into 3810–3800; invalidate on a reclaim/hold above ~4050–4090.

Daily trend: Lower highs and lower lows from 9/12 high (~4715) to 9/25 close (3888). The critical 4200–4300 demand shelf (9/1–9/21) failed on 9/22 and again on 9/25 with expansion in range and volume—classic distribution-to-markdown transition.
4h/1h structure: Intraday sequence on 9/25 shows a series of lower highs (4052 → 4020 → 4017 → 3999 → 3947 → 3917) and lower lows (3992 → 3974 → 3949 → 3933 → 3836 → 3881 marginal). Into the close, price could not reclaim 3925–3950 supply, confirming weak demand.
Key levels: • Broken support now resistance: 4000 (psych), 4050–4090 (daily R1 pivot area), 4125–4160 (yesterday’s range high/failed retests) • Near-term support: 3830 (today’s low), 3810–3800 (psych/liquidity pocket), 3758 (daily S1), 3730, 3690

Today’s daily bar: Wide bearish real body with a long intraday range (H 4161, L 3829, C 3888), closing in the lower third—strong control by sellers. The early U.S. session produced a capitulation-like flush (largest hourly volume of the day at 18:00 UTC), followed by a weak bounce—typical of pause-lower sequences rather than durable reversals.
1h candles: Multiple rejections around 4015–4050 and a late-day lower high at ~3947. Supply stepped in quickly on each push, consistent with distribution above 3920–3950.

Daily SMA/EMA (qualitative given data): Price is below its short- and mid-term moving averages (e.g., 20D and 50D) after the 9/22–9/25 breaks, indicating active downtrend momentum. The 200D is likely still below spot (long-term uptrend intact), but tactical timeframe is bearish.
1h EMAs (8/21/55): Downward stacked and fanning out most of the session; late-session bounce did not reclaim the 21/55 EMA cluster (roughly around 3950–4000), reinforcing sell-the-rip setup.

RSI (Daily): Likely in the mid-to-high 30s/low 40s after the drop—bearish but not deeply oversold, leaving room for further downside after a bounce.
RSI (1h): Oversold readings during the flush, rebounding only to the mid-30s/low-40s, consistent with weak-bounce behavior.
MACD (Daily): Negative and expanding histogram consistent with breakdown continuation. (1h) Histogram contraction suggests a relief bounce is plausible before trend resumes down.
Stoch RSI (1h/4h): Resetting off the floor but below midline, typically a spot where bounces fade in downtrends.

ATR expansion: Daily true range recently 250–350+ points; today ≈332. Expect another 220–300-point intraday envelope over the next 24h.
Expected range: 3770–4035 with base case path: early bounce toward 3950–4000, then fade to 3820–3800. Extremes: 3758 (S1) on acceleration; 4050–4090 on squeeze/retests.

Daily: Price pressed/breached lower Bollinger/Keltner bands—this often brings a relief bounce, but in trending conditions mean reversion usually underperforms; rallies tend to stall beneath the mid-band (≈20D MA) and roll.
1h: Multiple closes near the lower band intraday, then a modest snapback. The mid-band/upper-band zone likely sits ~3950–4000—confluence with sell zone.

Breakdown volume: Elevated on 9/22 and 9/25—supply overwhelming demand at former supports (4200s, then 4100s/4000s). The 18:00 UTC bar on 9/25 shows a local volume climax on the flush; the lack of follow-through buying into the close implies no meaningful absorption yet.
OBV (qualitative): Trending down from 9/12; no bullish divergence evident.

Session VWAP (9/25) likely sits near 3995–4010 given early prices near 4120–4160 and the subsequent selloff. Price closed well below VWAP, with overhead volume nodes likely around 3950–4010—excellent short-supply confluence.
Volume shelves: Thick participation around 4300–4400 (now far above), thin pocket 4050–3950 which can be probed on bounces but tends to reject.

Swing 9/25 H→L: 4161.27 → 3829.01, Δ = 332.26 • 38.2% = 3829.01 + 0.382*332.26 ≈ 3955.6 • 50% = ≈ 3995.1 • 61.8% = ≈ 4035.6
Confluence: 3955–3960 aligns with daily pivot (PP ≈ 3959.6) and 1h supply. 3995–4005 (50% + session VWAP) is secondary sell zone; 4035–4050 (61.8% + prior breakdown band) is the last line before invalidation.

Daily/4h: Price well below cloud; Tenkan < Kijun and both pointing down—bearish trend state. Kijun resistance likely near 4050–4100: typical magnet for corrective bounces, then rejection.
1h: Cloud overhead; no bullish TK cross confirmation; any approach into the cloud base near 3950–4000 is a high-probability fade in a trend.

ADX likely rising on daily as range break transitions to trend—supports continuation after rallies.

Using 9/25 H/L/C (4161.27/3829.01/3888.38): • Pivot (PP) ≈ 3959.6 • R1 ≈ 4090.1 • S1 ≈ 3757.8
These align with the proposed short entry (just under PP) and profit zone (above S1, around 3800–3810).

Wyckoff: Distribution in the 4300–4700 area (early Sep) followed by Sign of Weakness (9/22) and Mark-Down (9/25). Today’s bounce is likely an Automatic Rally (AR) within a fresh markdown channel—typically sold.
Channel/flag: Intraday potential bear flag forms if price coils 3920–4000; measured move targets retest of 3830 then 3780–3760.
Liquidity map: Clear liquidity resting below 3800 and above 3950/4000; expect stop-runs into those pockets.

Base (60%): Bounce to 3950–3995, rejection, drift down to 3820–3800; intraday low risk toward 3758 if momentum accelerates late.
Squeeze (25%): Push through 4000 to 4035–4050; stall near 4050–4090 (R1/overhead supply). Only a firm reclaim and hold above 4090 flips bias to neutral.
Continuation dump (15%): Weak/no bounce; slide directly to 3820–3780 after Asia open liquidity, then base.

Short the confluence: 3955–3965 hosts 38.2% fib of today’s swing, daily PP (~3959.6), 1h supply, and sub-VWAP. This is a high-probability “sell-the-bounce” area in a fresh downtrend.
Target selection: 3805–3810 sits above psychological 3800 and ahead of S1 3758—good odds of fill without demanding an extreme extension.
Invalidation (contextual, not part of order schema): Close/hold above 4050–4090 suggests bear thesis for next 24h is wrong; would exit a short there.

Conclusion

The technical confluence supports a tactical Sell-the-bounce approach. Expect a relief rally toward 3950–4000 to falter and a subsequent move back toward 3820–3800 within 24 hours. Risk is a squeeze toward 4035–4050; broader invalidation sits near 4090.