ETH at the Line: Buy the 4,000 Dip for a Relief Pop Toward R1 (4,077) and 4,110

Executive summary

• Regime: Strong daily downtrend after September distribution with a capitulation-like flush on Sep 25 to 3829 and a relief bounce today to an intraday high near 4069. Price is consolidating around 4,000 with intraday momentum cooling but structure intact above ~3980.
• Next 24h bias: Mildly bullish (relief rally continuation) toward 4075–4110, with risk of a dip to 3980–3950 before higher. Volatility elevated.
• Trade idea: Buy the pullback near 3995–4000 with targets into R1/overhead supply at 4075–4110. Invalidation on sustained break below 3940–3950.

Market context and structure

• Macro swing: From early August acceleration to 4.95k, ETH rolled over into a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. The critical breakdowns were 9/22 (4450→4203) and 9/25 (4153→3868 close), establishing 3829 as a selling climax (SC) candidate.
• Current: Sep 26 hourlies show a sharp recovery leg 3930→4069, then orderly consolidation to 4012. This looks like an AR (automatic rally) off the SC, entering a potential range with value building around 3980–4040.
• Key levels (spot references):
  • Support: 3981 (38.2% pullback of today’s bounce), 3950 (50% pullback), 3917 (61.8%), 3873/3868 (intraday low/daily close), 3829 (cycle low).
  • Resistance: 4045–4069 (intraday supply and prior hour high), 4077 (daily R1 pivot), 4105–4120 (gap/supply pocket), 4160–4200 (broken shelf and heavy supply).

Multi-timeframe trend

• Daily: Downtrend. Price is below the 20D and 50D MAs, which have rolled over. The 7–10 day momentum has turned negative since mid-September. However, the magnitude of the two-day drawdowns suggests a mean-reversion window in the next 24–48 hours.
• 4H/1H: Short-term uptrend within a larger downtrend. Higher lows from 3873 → ~3921 → ~3975 (intraday), higher highs into 4047 → 4069. Pullback is shallow so far; momentum decelerating but not broken.

Moving averages

• Daily: Price under the 21/50/100 SMAs (bearish alignment). Distance from 20D is stretched, favoring a reversion bounce toward 4075–4175 if sellers don’t immediately press new lows.
• 1H EMAs (8/21/55): Bullish stack developed during the rebound; price is oscillating around the 8/21 with the 55-EMA likely near 3985–3995, a buy-the-dip zone. A clean loss of the 55-EMA and structure under ~3950 would warn the bounce is failing.

Momentum and oscillators

• RSI (Daily): Likely in the low-to-mid 30s following the 9/25 flush—oversold territory. Room for a relief pop. No clear daily bullish divergence yet, but a momentum trough is forming.
• RSI (1H): Recovered into the 50–60 range during the push to 4069, now cooling toward midline—classic flag behavior. Holding RSI >45 on dips supports another push to test 4045–4075.
• MACD (Daily): Below signal and negative, but histogram contraction likely starting post-bounce—early mean reversion signal.
• MACD (1H): Positive but flattening as price digests 4050–4070; momentum reset may precede another leg higher if the pullback holds above ~3980.
• Stochastics (1H): Likely cycling down from overbought, consistent with a shallow pullback before continuation.

Volatility and bands

• ATR (Daily): Expanded materially after 9/22 and 9/25 shocks; expect 250–350 handles of realized range in the next 24h. Plan for whipsaws.
• Bollinger Bands (Daily): Price rebounded off/near the lower band; mean-revert tendency toward the 20D band midline (well above). Near-term, band pinch on 1H after expansion favors another impulse move (base case to the upside if 3980 holds).
• Keltner Channels (1H): Price moved from outer to midline; holding midline on dips supports continuation to the upper envelope near 4075–4100.

Volume/flow

• 9/25 showed capitulatory volume; today’s bounce occurred on lower-to-moderate volume—typical of relief rallies. This suggests: (1) sellers are less aggressive immediately post-flush; (2) a secondary test is still possible later. In the next 24h, lower supply at 4045–4075 could be probed before significant seller reload.
• OBV/CMF (conceptual): Stabilization day—neither an accumulation day nor a renewed distribution spike. Lean neutral to slightly positive intraday.

Fibonacci and measured moves

• Micro bounce leg: 3829 → 4069; pullback retracements:
  • 38.2%: 3981
  • 50%: 3949
  • 61.8%: 3917 This defines a high-probability dip-buy zone at 3981–3950 with invalidation below 3917/3940, depending on risk tolerance.
• Prior swing: 4715 (9/12) → 3868 (9/25 close)
  • 23.6%: ~4059 (tapped)
  • 38.2%: ~4176 (stretch target beyond 24h base case) Expect near-term friction around 4059–4077 and stronger supply at 4105–4120.

Ichimoku (1H)

• Price pulled above Tenkan and Kijun during the rebound; baseline likely near 3985–3995. A hold above Kijun (≈3990) favors continuation. Cloud top projection near 4060–4070 aligns with resistance. Conversion-base bullish cross supports a tactical long while above the base line.

Pivot levels (classic, using 9/25 H/L/C = 4162/3829/3868)

• Pivot P: 3953
• R1: 4077
• R2: 4286
• S1: 3744 Price is above P and below R1, often a “range with upside test” posture. R1 at 4077 matches intraday supply and is a logical magnet/target.

VWAP and market profile (conceptual)

• Anchored VWAP from the 9/25 low likely tracks in the high 3,9xx; pullbacks to AVWAP support tend to be bought in relief rallies. The 17:00–18:00 surge on 9/26 left a thin-volume pocket 4045–4065 that often gets re-tested/filled; acceptance above 4065 opens 4105–4120.

Candlestick/price action

• 1H: Strong bullish marubozu-like bar at 17:00 UTC pushing to new session highs, followed by digestion bars. This is consistent with a bull flag while above 3980–3990. The 19:00–20:00 drift down did not break structure.
• Daily: Attempting a green follow-through day after the large red candle. Closing above 4000 is a minor victory for bulls short-term.

Wyckoff/Elliott framing

• Wyckoff: Potential selling climax (SC) at 3829 → automatic rally (AR) toward 4069 → secondary test (ST) possibly 3980–3950. If ST holds above 3873–3920, the range can broaden topside to 4075–4120.
• Elliott (tactical): Impulsive down leg likely completed/sub-completed; currently in an A-B-C upward correction with B near 3980–3950 and C toward 4075–4110.

ADX/DI

• Daily ADX rising with -DI dominant (trend down), but short-term +DI on 1H is in control; as long as +DI > -DI on 1H and price holds above the 1H Kijun/55EMA cluster (~3990–3995), upside tests are favored.

Scenario analysis (next 24h)

• Base case (60%): Support holds at 3980–3995; push to 4045–4077; extension to 4105–4110 if 4065–4077 accepts. Close near 4060–4100.
• Bearish alt (30%): Early fail through 3980; test 3950 and possibly 3917–3925 before rebounding. Close 3940–3980.
• Bull tail (10%): Strong squeeze through 4077 → 4105–4120; if momentum/volume spikes, wick toward 4150–4175 is possible, but less likely within 24h without a catalyst.

Risk management and trade plan

• Thesis: Mean-reversion bounce continues while the structure above 3980–3995 holds; confluence of 1H supports (AVWAP, Kijun, 55EMA), Fibonacci 38.2% at 3981, and daily pivot P at 3953 below.
• Entry: Buy pullback into 3995–4000 (limit). If price runs first, alternative breakout add above 4078 with tight risk to target 4105–4120.
• Stop (not requested but prudent): 3942 (below 50% pullback and beneath intraday structure), or tighter 3968 for a more aggressive R:R if monitoring actively.
• Targets: First target 4075–4077 (R1); secondary 4105–4110 (supply pocket). Trail if strong momentum prints through 4077 with acceptance.
• R:R example: Entry 3998, TP 4108 (+110), SL 3942 (-56) ≈ 2.0:1.

What invalidates

• Fast rejection under 3980 with heavy volume, or a 1H close below 3940, shifts bias to a re-test of 3917/3873 and delays the bounce.

Bottom line

• Despite a dominant daily downtrend, the immediate setup favors a 24-hour relief continuation toward 4075–4110, provided 3980–3995 holds. Optimal tactic: buy the dip at/just below 4,000 and target the pivot resistance cluster overhead.