ETH reclaims 4.2k: buy the retest for a run to the 4.29k–4.31k resistance

Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.

Step 1 — Market snapshot and context

• Instrument: Ethereum USD
• Current price at last print: 4226.22
• Timeframe coverage: Daily trend from early July through late September, intraday hourly from Sep 28 to Sep 29
• Recent regime shift: After a September drawdown from the mid 4700s to a capitulation low near 3868 to 3829 area on Sep 25, ETH is bouncing. Today shows a clean intraday breakout from the 4100 to 4185 range toward 4230 with rising hour-over-hour momentum and volume.

Step 2 — Higher time frame trend and structure

• Structural highs and lows
  • July base built around 2500 to 2600, sustained multi-week uptrend into mid August highs near 4954 intraday and 4785 to 4830 closes
  • Pullback late Aug to early Sep into low 4300s, followed by a rally to 4715 close on Sep 12
  • Progressive lower highs and lower lows into Sep 25 capitulation low around 3868 close and 3829 intraday low
  • Since Sep 26, higher low sequence formed at 3970 to 4019 zone and now a higher high on the hourly versus last swing highs around 4186
• Takeaway: Daily trend is still up versus July lows but in a corrective phase since early September. The latest bounce is a relief rally inside a broader pullback. Short term bias has turned up with a series of higher highs and higher lows on the hourly.

Step 3 — Moving averages and trend filters

• Estimated daily 20 period SMA around 4420 to 4450. Price below this suggests the relief rally is still underneath short term mean
• Estimated daily 50 period SMA around 4300 to 4350. Price is approaching this band from below and could test it as resistance if momentum continues
• Daily 200 period SMA likely materially lower than spot, supportive of a longer term bullish bias
• Hourly EMAs 8 to 21 to 55 are stacked bullish after the 13 00 UTC breakout above 4186, and price is holding above the 55 hour EMA near the 4130 to 4150 region
• Takeaway: On daily, the short term mean sits above price and can act as a magnet if buyers maintain control. On hourly, trend is bullish, favoring buy the dip tactics.

Step 4 — Momentum indicators

• Daily RSI 14 likely recovered from oversold near Sep 25 and is now mid range around the mid 40s to low 50s, leaving room to the upside before overbought conditions
• Hourly RSI moved into the 60 to 65 region on the breakout, consistent with constructive momentum without being extreme
• Daily MACD histogram negative but rising toward the signal line, indicating waning downside momentum and a potential bullish cross if follow through persists
• 4 hour Stochastics and RSI are curling up from midline, consistent with continuation attempts
• Takeaway: Momentum is improving across intraday timeframes and no longer oversold on daily, which supports a further 24 hour push into resistance bands.

Step 5 — Volatility and Bollinger context

• Daily ATR expanded on the selloff, currently estimated around 180 to 220. Expect 24 hour ranges near 200 to 300 given recent regime
• 20 period daily Bollinger Bands approximate center band near the 20 SMA in the 4420 area, lower band around 4060, upper band near 4780. Price bounced off lower band and is heading toward the middle band, aligning with a mean reversion path into the low 4400s if momentum sustains
• Takeaway: Volatility supports a 100 to 200 move within a day. Mean reversion bias favors tests toward 4290 to 4390 if buyers hold supports.

Step 6 — Volume and participation

• Heavy distribution on Sep 22 and Sep 25 created a washout. Subsequent sessions show stabilizing volume on rebounds
• Today, hourly volume spiked on the 19 00 to 20 00 UTC breakout from 4185 to 4230. Rising price with rising volume confirms breakout quality
• Takeaway: Participation improved on upside break, making continuation moves more credible

Step 7 — Fibonacci mapping

• Retracement of the September downswing from 4715 high to 3868 low
  • 38.2 percent at 4192, already reclaimed and retested
  • 50 percent at 4292, first major resistance target
  • 61.8 percent at 4392, secondary target if momentum accelerates
• Macro retracement of the full July low 2406 to August high 4954
  • 38.2 percent at roughly 3981. The recent pivot low bounced above this level
  • 50 percent at roughly 3680, deeper support not currently in play
• Takeaway: The 4290 to 4300 band is a textbook magnet for a relief rally. Above it, 4390 to 4400 is the golden pocket test.

Step 8 — Key horizontal levels and market profile intuition

• Immediate supports
  • 4185 to 4200 breakout level and pivot R1 zone from prior day calculation
  • 4140 to 4160 former range highs and intraday consolidation ledges
  • 4100 round figure and 4085 to 4090 pivot area
  • 4035 to 4040 daily close zone from Sep 26
• Resistances
  • 4258 to 4260 daily pivot R2 confluence from prior day, plus intraday supply pockets
  • 4290 to 4300 50 percent retrace and prior congestions from early September
  • 4350 to 4390 confluence of 61.8 percent retrace and prior high volume area
  • 4420 to 4450 20 day SMA and daily mid Bollinger band
• Takeaway: The path of least resistance short term is to probe 4258 then 4290 to 4300 with possible extension wicks toward 4350 to 4390 if liquidity thins above 4300.

Step 9 — Intraday pattern diagnostics

• Ascending triangle on the hourly built between 4090 base and 4185 horizontal lid. Break confirmed at 13 00 UTC with expanding volume. Measured move of approximately 96 implies target near 4280 to 4285, aligning with the 50 percent retrace at 4292
• Price stair stepped higher through 4170 to 4200 and is now consolidating around 4220 to 4230. Structure remains bullish while 4185 to 4200 holds on pullbacks
• Takeaway: Pattern measured objective points directly into the first major daily resistance cluster, strengthening the 4290 target for the next session.

Step 10 — Ichimoku lens

• Daily price likely below the Kumo with the cloud spanning roughly 4320 to 4460. Tenkan below Kijun but Tenkan has curled up. A mean reversion attempt to the Kijun in the low 4400s is typical after a washout
• 4 hour price reclaimed Tenkan and Kijun and is approaching the lower edge of the cloud. First touch often rejects, which coincides with resistance in the 4290 to 4320 band
• Takeaway: Expect a first test rejection or consolidation near 4290 to 4320 before any attempt to press toward the thicker cloud near 4390 to 4450.

Step 11 — Anchored VWAP and VWAP references

• Anchored VWAP from the Sep 25 low likely tracks near 4130 to 4150 based on price time distribution. Price currently above it, confirming buyers control since the flush. Pullbacks toward anchored VWAP present buyable dips while trend persists
• Session VWAP on the day tends to sit around 4175 to 4200 after the breakout. Continuation trades often defend VWAP on first touch
• Takeaway: Dips to 4200 to 4210 are attractive for risk defined long entries if VWAP holds.

Step 12 — Pivot points for next session framing

• Using Sep 28 HLC data: Pivot P approximately 4085, R1 approximately 4200, R2 approximately 4258, R3 approximately 4373
• Price is between R1 and R2, with R2 nearby and R3 aligning with a secondary resistance objective around 4370 to 4390
• Takeaway: Intraday path is to test R2 and potentially overshoot, with R3 being a stretch target in a strong session.

Step 13 — Elliott wave sketch on the bounce

• From 3829 to 4141 likely wave 1, pullback to 3970 wave 2, ongoing advance wave 3 toward 4280 to 4310 objective, followed by shallow wave 4 consolidation to 4210 to 4230, then a final wave 5 push into 4340 to 4390 if momentum persists within 24 to 36 hours
• Takeaway: Structural count supports a near term thrust into 4290 plus area with a potential secondary leg if sellers fail to cap it.

Step 14 — Risk and invalidation

• Invalidation of the bullish intraday thesis occurs on sustained closes back below 4185 to 4200 and a loss of 4140. Below 4140, the market risks a full retest of 4100 and 4040
• Macro invalidation of the relief rally would be a daily close below 4019 to 4035 after a failed breakout, which would re open the path to 3900

Step 15 — Scenario probabilities for the next 24 hours

• Base case 60 percent: Buy the dip holds above 4185 to 4200, price rotates up to 4258 then 4285 to 4305, with intraday high prints potentially 4310 to 4330
• Bull extension 25 percent: Strong continuation squeezes through 4300 and tags 4350 to 4390, driven by thin liquidity and positive BTC beta
• Bear fade 15 percent: Early rejection at 4258 to 4290 leads to a push back below 4200, probing 4140 to 4160 supports. Only on a clean break of 4140 would a deeper slide toward 4100 be likely

Step 16 — Trade plan, entries, exits, and risk control

• Bias: Buy the dip in a short term uptrend targeting the 50 percent retracement band
• Optimal entry plan
  • Primary entry limit at 4206 to buy a retest of the breakout shelf and session VWAP zone
  • If momentum runs without pullback, an alternative tactical add could be a buy stop on strength above 4262 to ride a momentum pop into 4290 to 4320. This alternative is mentioned for completeness but the main order is the 4206 limit
• Take profit logic
  • First target 4292 to 4300 aligned with 50 percent retrace, measured move of the hourly triangle, and overhead supply from early September
  • Secondary stretch target 4370 to 4390 aligns with pivot R3 and 61.8 percent retrace if momentum stays hot. For a strict 24 hour plan, we use the first target as the base case exit
• Stop loss and risk
  • Suggested stop 4148 to 4150, below 4140 structural shelf to avoid noise. Risk about 56 to 60 points versus roughly 86 to 94 points to first target, giving about 1.5 to 1 to 1.6 to 1 reward to risk
  • Position sizing suggestion for short term trade: 0.5 to 1.5 percent account equity risk given elevated ATR
• Trade management
  • If filled at 4206 and price reaches 4258 to 4260, consider moving stop to breakeven plus to protect capital ahead of the 4290 test
  • If price rejects 4290 sharply, trail stops under 4240 on a 15 to 30 minute closing basis

Step 17 — Synthesis and conclusion

• Multi indicator alignment supports a short term buy the dip strategy aiming for the 4290 to 4310 band over the next day. Structure is constructive on the hourly, momentum is improving, volume confirmed the breakout, and Fibonacci plus pivots cluster tightly around the same upside targets. Downside invalidation is well defined at 4140 to 4150. The higher time frame corrective context remains in place, so treat this as a tactical long rather than a swing unless daily closes reclaim the 20 day SMA in the 4420 to 4450 zone.