ETH poised for a mean-reversion push to 4.29–4.33k — buy the pullback to ~4.17k

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical read on ETH/USD as of 2025-09-30 21:01 UTC

1. Market regime and context

• Macro path since July: ETH advanced from ~2.6k (early July) to a late-Aug peak near 4.95k, then rolled over into a September drawdown. The recent leg bottomed on Sep 25 at 3,868 after a high-volume capitulation day. Since then, price has staged a reflexive rebound to the 4.14k–4.22k area, now printing 4,193.
• Regime characterization: Long-term uptrend intact (200D MA likely well below price, ~3.3–3.6k); intermediate trend damaged (price below 50D/100D MAs); short-term trend recovering (higher lows from 3,868 → 4,019 → 4,141 → 4,217 and intraday resilience today).

2. Price action and market structure

• Daily structure: A-to-B bounce after a capitulation low. Sequence of higher lows and incremental higher highs suggests a constructive short-term structure. Today’s session probed down to ~4,096, then was bought back to ~4,193, leaving a lower shadow; that’s supportive into the next session.
• Intraday (hourly) structure: Clear defense of the 4,095–4,120 demand zone followed by a VWAP reclaim and a push toward 4,195. This is classic accumulation after a morning/mid-session shakeout.

3. Key levels (confluence-driven)

• Supports: 4,180 pivot (see pivots below), 4,125 (S1), 4,095 intraday low, 4,035 (S2), 3,970–3,980 (swing shelf), 3,868 (cycle low).
• Resistances: 4,192–4,200 (38.2% retracement and local shelf), 4,241 (50% retracement), 4,272 (R1), 4,289–4,290 (61.8% retracement), 4,327 (R2), 4,450 (major supply from early September breakdown). The 4,300–4,350 region is a high-volume node that should slow price.

4. Fibonacci retracement mapping (Sep 12 swing high to Sep 25 low)

• Range: High 4,715 (Sep 12) to Low 3,868 (Sep 25) = 847 points.
• 38.2%: 3,868 + 0.382×847 ≈ 4,192 (price is sitting here now; explains today’s hesitation).
• 50%: ≈ 4,241.
• 61.8%: ≈ 4,289–4,290.
• Expectation: After first tag of 38.2% resistance, typical behavior is minor consolidation/pullback then an attempt at 50% and 61.8% if momentum holds.

5. Classical pivots (computed from Sep 29 H/L/C)

• Prior day High 4,234.78, Low 4,087.93, Close 4,217.34.
• Pivot (P) ≈ 4,180.02; S1 ≈ 4,125.26; R1 ≈ 4,272.11; S2 ≈ 4,033.17; R2 ≈ 4,326.87.
• Today’s intraday respected S1/S2 bands and reclaimed P. Next magnet is R1 (4,272), then R2 (4,327), neatly bracketing the Fibonacci 50%–61.8% zone.

6. Moving averages and crossovers

• Daily 20SMA: Likely still above current price (~4.35–4.45k) after the sharp drop; price is between the lower Bollinger band and the mid-band/20SMA. That implies room for mean reversion upward.
• Daily 50SMA: Estimated ~4.3–4.4k. ETH is near/below it; a test is likely if the bounce extends to 4.29–4.33k.
• 200SMA: Likely ~3.4–3.6k; intact long-term uptrend.
• Hourly EMAs (20/50): Likely crossed bullish this session on the push from 4,10x to 4,19x, supporting near-term upside continuation.

7. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI: Recovered from oversold near the Sep 25 low; likely in mid-40s to ~50 now. This is a neutral-to-positive inflection zone with room to the upside before overbought.
• Hourly RSI: Rotated from sub-40 to >55–60 on the rebound; modestly bullish short-term. Expect a small reset on any pullback toward 4,16x–4,18x.
• MACD (daily): Still below zero but histogram contracting toward zero; signal line curling up. This typically precedes a 1–3 day continuation of mean reversion if price holds supports.
• Stoch RSI (4H/1H): Likely in upper mid-range after the late-session push; minor cooling could facilitate a higher low entry.

8. Volatility and range

• Recent true ranges have been elevated; a conservative daily ATR(14) proxy ≈ 220–260 points. A one-day expected range from 4,193 implies ~4,0xx to ~4,4xx achievable in 24h if momentum persists. Range expansion favors tests of R1 (4,272) and possibly R2 (4,327) within the next session.

9. Bollinger Bands (20,2 on daily)

• Price rebounded off/near the lower band last week and is headed toward the mid-band (20SMA). Statistical mean reversion supports a probe into 4,24x–4,33x over the next 1–2 days if the band walk does not resume downward.

10. Ichimoku (daily and 4H read-through)

• Daily: Price below cloud; Kijun likely ~4.45k, Tenkan has turned up. Sub-cloud but Tenkan>Kijun inflection often accompanies relief rallies. Cloud resistance remains higher (~4.4–4.6k), beyond our 24h scope, but it sets a cap.
• 4H: Price likely entering/inside the cloud after reclaiming 4.18k. A traverse across the cloud toward 4.27–4.33k is plausible before running into thicker resistance.

11. Volume/OBV/Market profile

• Volume: Sep 25 capitulation was the highest in weeks, establishing a potential swing low. Subsequent green days show improving but not euphoric volume—healthy for a reflex rally.
• OBV bias: Rising since Sep 25; buyers absorbing supply on dips.
• Volume profile: HVN around 4.30–4.35k (early Sep churn) will act as a magnet and resistance; LVN between 4.20–4.25k may allow a swift push once 4.20–4.22 is cleanly reclaimed on closing basis.

12. VWAPs and anchored VWAP

• Intraday VWAP: Reclaimed late-session; constructive.
• Anchored VWAP (from the Sep 25 low): Likely in the 4.10–4.13k zone; price holds above, indicating longs from the low are in profit and defending dips.
• Anchored VWAP (from Sep 22 breakdown): Likely near 4.20–4.22k; we’re testing that band now, explaining the friction; clearing it on volume targets 4.27–4.33k.

13. Candles and patterns

• Sep 25: Wide range down with a closing rebound (capitulation flush).
• Sep 26–29: Series of constructive closes, with 28–29 stepping higher.
• Today: Intraday hammer-like behavior (dip to ~4,095 bought back above 4,190) near a Fibonacci/Pivot confluence. Into resistance that’s normal; suggests buy-the-dip flows likely reappear on minor pullbacks.

14. Elliott Wave framing (tactical)

• A-wave: 4.95k → 3.87k decline into Sep 25.
• B-wave: Ongoing retracement toward 0.5–0.618 (4.24–4.29k). Often B-waves stall near 0.5–0.618 before a C-leg retest. Within the next 24h, a B-wave extension to 4.27–4.33k is feasible.

15. DeMark/Sequential (qualitative)

• Daily TD Buy Setup likely completed around Sep 25, initiating a reactionary bounce. Current TDST resistance likely aligns with ~4.24–4.30k; clearing that shifts the bias to continuation toward 4.33k.

16. Risk diagnostics and invalidation

• As long as 4,125 (S1) holds on a closing basis, the path of least resistance over the next 24h is up toward 4,27x–4,33x. Lose 4,125 and especially 4,095 on a sustained basis, and the bounce thesis weakens, opening 4,035 and 3,97x.
• Liquidity pockets: Resting offers at 4,240–4,290; resting bids at 4,160–4,180 and 4,105–4,125.

17. 24-hour path expectation and probabilities

• Base case (60%): Minor pullback to 4,16x–4,18x, then an advance to 4,24x (0.5 Fib), extension to 4,27x (R1), with a late-session probe into 4,29x (0.618 Fib). Anticipated range: 4,155–4,300, with intraday wicks possible to 4,327 (R2) on strong momentum.
• Bear case (25%): Rejection at current 38.2% (4,192) leads to a break back below pivot 4,180 and a test of 4,125; a daily close below 4,120 flips bias back to 4,035.
• Upside tail (15%): Strong impulse clears 4,241 early; momentum carries price into 4,29x–4,33x band rapidly, with consolidation near 4,31x.

18. Synthesis across tools

• Confluences to note: 38.2% retracement ≈ current price; classical Pivot P at 4,180 beneath; R1 (4,272) aligns with B-wave target zone; 61.8% at 4,289 aligns with upper target and near R2 cluster at 4,327. Oscillators curling up from neutral, MACD improving, OBV rising, hourly EMA cross up, and intraday VWAP reclaim all favor buy-the-dip rather than fade-the-rip within a 24h horizon.

Conclusion and tactical plan

• Bias: Buy the pullback into 4,16x–4,18x with targets in 4,27x–4,29x over the next 24 hours. Invalidation if 4,095 is lost on a sustained basis (not part of the order fields, but recommended as a risk control level).

Decision: Buy (Long position).

Execution

• Optimal entry (limit): 4,172 (near intraday micro-support and just below daily pivot for better fill).
• Target (take profit): 4,290 (61.8% retracement and pre-R2 resistance). This captures the expected mean-reversion leg while front-running heavier supply at 4.30–4.33k.

Expected 24h path: Early dip to 4,165–4,180 → push to 4,240–4,275 → spike toward 4,290; consolidation under 4,300 into the next session.