ETH bulls defend 4.50k value area; eyes on 4,628 pivot magnet in the next 24 hours

Executive summary: ETH has rebuilt a higher‑high/higher‑low structure off the Sept 25 capitulation low (3868). The last three sessions reclaimed and held above 4.35k/4.50k, with intraday tests and successful retests of the 4.49–4.51k value area. Momentum is positive on daily and intraday frames, breadth of the move is improving, and price sits above key short- and medium-term moving averages. Into the next 24 hours, the path of least resistance favors a continuation toward the R2 pivot cluster ~4625–4630, with extension risk into 4665–4680 if momentum broadens. Optimal trade expression is to buy a pullback toward the 4.50k VWAP/value area and target the 4.63k pivot.

Detailed step-by-step analysis

1. Market regime and structure (multi-timeframe)

• Daily trend context: From Jul 6 (~2570) ETH trended up to Aug 13 (~4785), corrected into late Sept, then flushed to 3868 (Sep 25), followed by a V-shaped recovery. Recent closes: Oct 1 4351, Oct 2 4488, Oct 3 4537. Price has now reclaimed and is holding above prior resistance at ~4.50k, establishing a sequence of higher lows: 3868 (Sep 25) → 3976–3969 (Sep 27–28) → 4095 (Sep 30) → 4337 (Oct 2 intraday) → 4433 (Oct 3 intraday). Structure is bullish.
• Intraday (hourly): Last 24h range 4433–4588 with a strong push to 4588 at 16:00 UTC, healthy pullback to 4476 at 17:00, and re-accumulation back above 4.52k → 4.54k into the close, settling 4537. This is a classic bull-flag consolidation after expansion.

2. Moving averages and trend strength

• 5-day SMA (approx): ~4348 (avg of last 5 closes), price at 4537 > SMA5 and SMA5 is rising – near-term uptrend.
• 10-day SMA (approx): ~4196, price well above and slope turning up – intermediate momentum improved.
• 20-day SMA (approx): 4360–4400 zone, price above and expanding distance – bullish impulse with room before overextension.
• EMA(9) daily (approx): 4470–4490 zone; intraday low held above/near this band. Pullbacks toward the EMA9 are being bought – positive trend confirmation.
• Trend takeaway: Multi-MA alignment (price > EMA9 > SMA20 > SMA50 est.) with rising slopes supports a continuation bias.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (est): mid-60s. Post-recovery RSI has pushed into bullish range without being overbought (>70). This suggests more upside room before a momentum fade.
• Hourly RSI: peaked on the 4588 push, reset toward neutral on the 4476 pullback, and stabilized in the 50–60 band. This is constructive for another leg higher as momentum has recharged without losing structure.
• MACD (daily): Histogram expanding and line cross above signal likely occurred around Oct 1–2. Positive slope, above zero line or approaching it – bullish.
• MACD (hourly): Bullish cross during the run to 4588, minor reset during the pullback, curling back up late session – favors another test of the highs.

4. Volatility and ATR

• Recent daily true ranges: ~143–226 points with Oct 2 at 181 and Oct 1 at ~226. A 14-day ATR proxy ~200–230 is reasonable. Expect +/- 4–5% swings to be within norm over 24h.
• Implication: A move from 4.54k toward 4.63k is well within 1x ATR, while retests toward 4.46–4.50k remain plausible as mean reversion inside trend.

5. Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Basis (SMA20) ~4360–4400; upper band roughly basis + 2σ. Using recent realized vol, 2σ ~ 350–380 points yields an upper band in the ~4700–4780 area. Current 4537 is in the upper half but comfortably below the band, signaling room for upside continuation without immediate overbought band-tag risk.

6. Ichimoku (qualitative, from price action)

• Price > cloud, Tenkan > Kijun, and Chikou likely above price, consistent with current reclaimed breakout. Kijun (26-period mid) likely sits near 4.38–4.42k, Tenkan near ~4.50k. Pullbacks to Tenkan are being defended, which typically precedes continuation toward prior swing highs/resistance.

7. Fibonacci mapping and confluence

• Recent swing: 4095 (Sep 30) → 4588 (Oct 3). Pullback levels: 38.2% = ~4407; 50% = ~4342; 61.8% = ~4277. Intraday selling stopped well above 38.2% (low 4433), showing strong-trend behavior.
• Larger swing: 3868 (Sep 25) → 4756–4785 (Aug/Oct reference highs). Reclaim of the 50–61.8% recovery band and hold above 4.45–4.50k suggests the next magnet is 0.786 retrace (approx mid-4.6k) before any larger resistance.
• Confluence: The 4.62–4.63k region aligns with Pivot R2 and is near a local fib cluster/supply shelf from mid-September (4668–4715 zone above it).

8. Market profile, volume, and VWAP

• Daily volume increased on the up days (Oct 1–2), indicating real participation in the rebound. Oct 3 had healthy intraday turnover at 4.49–4.52k, forming a value area.
• Intraday VWAP (session): Centered around 4.50–4.51k through much of the session; late-day price held above it, demonstrating buyers in control. Re-tests of VWAP attracted bids.
• Volume node/POC: 4.49–4.51k appears to be the day’s high-volume node. Expect dip buyers in this region on first touch.

9. Pivot points (classic, calculated from Oct 2 H/L/C)

• P ≈ 4447.4; R1 ≈ 4558.2; S1 ≈ 4377.1; R2 ≈ 4628.5; S2 ≈ 4266.2; R3 ≈ 4739.3.
• Price hit 4588 today, clearing R1 and consolidating just above/below it intraday. Next pivot magnet is R2 ~4628.5 within 24h, consistent with ATR capacity.

10. Candlestick/pattern diagnostics

• Daily: Third consecutive green close with higher high and higher low, modest upper wick – not a blow-off. Signals continuation rather than exhaustion.
• Hourly: Impulsive leg to 4588, then a tight bull flag/descending channel consolidation 4545 → 4476 → 4538. Break above 4545–4550 should re-open 4588 and then 4628.

11. Elliott/Wyckoff heuristics

• Wyckoff: Post-Sep 25 looks like accumulation/absorption with spring (capitulation), automatic rally, and higher low test. We are in markup with minor re-accumulation on the hourlies.
• Elliott (heuristic): From 4095, possible i (to ~4350), ii (to ~4180–4200), iii (to ~4588), iv (to ~4476 reset), v toward 4625–4680. If correct, we are entering wave v of this substructure.

12. Risk levels and invalidation

• Supports: 4510–4520 (VWAP/VA), 4470–4485 (flag base/Friday POC tail), 4440–4450 (intraday shelf), 4407 (38.2% fib), 4377 (S1 pivot).
• Resistances: 4550–4588 (intraday), 4625–4630 (R2 pivot), 4668–4715 (mid-Sept supply), 4760–4785 (upper band/old swing highs).
• Invalidation for the long thesis intraday would be a sustained acceptance below 4470 then 4440, which would open 4377 and flatten momentum.

13. Probabilistic path for the next 24 hours

• Bullish continuation (≈60–65%): Hold 4500–4520 on dips, push through 4550/4588 and tag 4625–4630; extension to 4665–4680 if momentum broadens and late shorts cover.
• Range (≈20–25%): Chop 4460–4580, with repeated tests of VWAP; still favors buying dips near 4.50k.
• Bear (≈15%): Loss of 4470 → swift probe to 4440/4407; only a daily acceptance below 4400 would materially dent the swing‑long structure.

14. Strategy synthesis and trade plan

• Bias: Buy dips within the 4.50k value area with stop discipline below the 4.44–4.45k shelf; first target the 4.63k R2 pivot. A secondary plan is a momentum add on a clean break-and-hold above 4550–4560, targeting 4588 then 4628.
• Rationale: Positive trend alignment (MAs), constructive momentum (RSI/MACD), strong-trend fib behavior (holding >38.2%), price > VWAP with value building above prior resistance, and clear pivot magnet at 4628 provide a favorable reward:risk setup.

Bottom line: The evidence set supports a Buy-the-Dip approach near 4.50–4.51k with a 24h target near 4.63k, allowing for an extension toward 4.66–4.68k if momentum accelerates. Optional risk control: stop below 4.44k to protect against regime shift.