ETH’s 4.75k swing-failure reversal: short the bounce into 4.55k, target the 4.42k confluence

Summary view for next 24 hours

• Bias short for the next 24 hours following a bearish outside reversal day at major resistance, with expectations of a reflexive bounce that fades into the 4540 to 4570 zone, then continuation toward 4460 and 4420. Primary target cluster sits at the 38.2 percent retracement of the 3868 to 4755 leg and the Ichimoku baselines, creating a confluence around 4415 to 4435.

Market structure and price action

• Higher time frame trend since the 9-25 capitulation low at 3868 has been a constructive uptrend of higher highs and higher lows into the 10-06 close, but today printed a bearish outside day with a long upper wick. Today’s session made a marginal higher high versus 10-06, swept liquidity above 4736, and then reversed sharply, closing near the lows around 4515. This is a classic swing failure pattern at a prior supply band near 4750 to 4785.
• Intraday structure shows a distribution day: Asia and early Europe bid price up into 4745 to 4755, then New York sold aggressively, breaking 4700, 4650, and 4600 in sequence, with acceleration and largest volumes during the 14:00 to 16:00 UTC window. A mechanical bounce late in the session stalled into the 4515 area. This motor signature often leads to a lower high and another leg down during the next session.

Key levels and confluence

• Resistance overhead
  • 4750 to 4785: multi-touch supply and prior August pivot band, today’s wick rejection zone.
  • 4700 to 4715: broken intraday shelf and round number. Should act as first responsive supply on any sharp rallies.
  • 4550 to 4575: intraday breakdown retest area and 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement from 3868 to 4755 sits near 4545 to 4546. This is the tactical sell zone for optimal risk reward within 24 hours.
• Support below
  • 4480 to 4460: intraday low cluster including today’s 4459 to 4461 prints and trendline support from 9-25 through early October higher lows.
  • 4435 to 4415: confluence of 38.2 percent Fib retracement of the 3868 to 4755 leg near 4416, plus Ichimoku baselines. Primary take profit zone for shorts.
  • 4375 to 4350: Oct 1 breakout close and high volume node. Secondary target if momentum accelerates.

Trend and moving averages

• 20 day simple moving average is rising and estimates near 4330. Price remains above it, but today’s rejection from the upper Bollinger band suggests mean reversion toward the 20 day MA zone in coming sessions. For the next 24 hours, the path of least resistance is toward the midline first, not another band expansion.
• 50 day simple moving average is estimated in the mid-4400s and rising. A pullback into low 4400s would still respect the intermediate uptrend while offering a good short term downside window before buyers reassert.
• Slope alignment: short term moving averages likely to roll after today’s reversal. Expect 5 to 10 period averages to cross down beneath 20 period on the 4 hour and 1 hour timeframes, reinforcing a short term bearish impulse.

Volatility and Bollinger framework

• Using a 20 period basis, upper band approximates low 4700s to mid 4700s given recent volatility. Today tagged and exceeded the upper band and then closed back inside with a long upper shadow. This is a statistically robust mean reversion cue. First magnet is the middle band near 4330 to 4350 on a multi day basis, but for a 24 hour window the realistic gravity point is 4460 then 4415.
• 14 day ATR approximates 250 to 300 points. A 120 to 180 point move from a tactical entry is feasible within 24 hours; hence the 4548 to 4422 short take profit plan is sized inside daily ATR.

Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI 14 backed off from the mid to high 50s toward the neutral 50 line after today’s reversal. Intraday RSI on the 1 hour shows a bear range shift where rebounds fail in the 55 to 60 region. This regime aligns with selling bounces.
• Stochastic RSI on 4 hour and 1 hour has crossed down from overbought and is accelerating. Expect any early session uptick to reset the oscillator and then roll back down, matching the sell the rip plan.
• MACD daily turned positive after the October breakout but the histogram is peaking and contracting. A shallow pullback in price combined with histogram rollover is a typical early warning. On 1 hour, MACD has crossed bearish with expanding negative histogram.

Ichimoku framework

• Price remains above the cloud on daily, confirming the larger bullish regime, but Tenkan and Kijun estimates cluster around 4425 and 4410 to 4420 respectively. Today’s close is above those baselines, leaving a high probability magnet into that zone for equilibrium. Chikou span remains above price, so a flush into 4415 to 4435 would likely find first responsive buying, making it a natural short term take profit area.

Fibonacci and measured moves

• From the 9-25 low at 3868 to today’s high at 4755, retracement levels sit at 23.6 percent near 4545, 38.2 percent near 4416, 50 percent near 4312, and 61.8 percent near 4207. The rejection right after tapping beyond the 23.6 cue and the close below it favors a move into the 38.2 zone next.
• Measured move symmetry using today’s impulse down from 4755 to 4460 projects a bounce to about 4545 to 4570 before another equal leg drop toward 4415, matching the fib and Ichimoku magnet.

Volume, VWAP, and distribution reads

• Intraday distribution: the heaviest hourly volumes coincided with the breaks below 4600 and the 15:00 to 16:00 flush toward 4460. This is classic initiative selling, not just profit taking.
• Session anchored VWAP was lost during the US session and remained above price into the close. Price closing below a falling intraday VWAP supports sell rallies strategy for the next session.
• OBV style read: net selling pressure increased into the close, and the late bounce to the 4515 to 4520 band did not recover proportionate volume, indicating weak demand into resistance.

Candlestick and pattern diagnostics

• Bearish outside day and shooting star dynamics at 4.75k supply are both high expectancy for at least a one to two session pullback. The long upper wick signals seller control at the highs and trapped late longs who are likely to provide supply on bounces.
• Liquidity sweep and failure above 10-06 high creates a swing failure pattern. Typically, the next session probes the opposite side of the range, validating 4460 and then 4420.

Cross timeframe alignment

• Daily trend up but overbought pocket rejected. 4 hour and 1 hour have rotated bearish. When higher timeframe remains constructive yet lower timeframes turn down, the high probability path is a corrective downswing within the daily uptrend. That favors shorting intraday strength with defined targets at midframe supports.

Risk management and scenario planning for 24 hours

• Base case 60 percent: early bounce into 4540 to 4570 supply, rejection, selloff to 4460, then continuation to 4415 to 4435. Close near 4440 to 4460.
• Alternative 25 percent: shallow bounce only to 4525 to 4540, straight-line bleed to 4420. Brief overshoot to 4390 possible if liquidity thin during Asia session.
• Adverse 15 percent: strong bid returns, price reclaims 4600 and 4625, invalidates the short thesis on a 1 hour close above 4625 to 4640, then retests 4700. For trade control, a stop would sit above 4625 to 4640 supply.

Advanced techniques overlay

• Regression channel from 9-25 low shows price tagged the top of the channel today and mean reversion toward the midline is pending. The channel midline tracks near 4450 to 4470 on a 4 hour basis.
• Pitchfork using 9-25 low as anchor with 10-02 and 10-06 pivots places median line near 4460 to 4475. First touch reactions often bounce but do not reverse unless accompanied by a momentum flip; hence an expectation for a small reaction then continuation.
• Market profile style read places the prior high volume nodes around 4510 to 4520 and 4350 to 4375. Price closed on the lower edge of the 4510 node and is likely to rotate to the 4460 node before exploring the 4415 area.
• Elliott wave micro count suggests today completed a wave 3 climax into 4755 of the 9-25 to present impulse, with a wave 4 correction toward 0.382 retracement around 4416. That aligns with the short term short idea while preserving the possibility of a later wave 5 push higher after the correction completes.

Trade plan logic

• Rationale to sell: confluence of bearish outside day at key supply, upper Bollinger tag and rejection, momentum oscillators rolling over on midframes, session VWAP loss, and clear fib confluences just below. The path of least resistance for the next 24 hours is a drift lower with rallies sold.
• Optimal entry: wait for a reflexive bounce toward the 23.6 percent retracement and broken intraday shelf near 4545 to 4560. This improves average entry and risk reward. If no bounce materializes, an alternate is a breakdown sell through 4480 with momentum confirmation, but the stated plan will use the bounce entry.
• Targeting: primary take profit in front of the 38.2 percent retracement and Ichimoku baselines at 4415 to 4435. Round to 4422 for a precise target to account for front running.
• Control point for invalidation: 1 hour close above 4625 undermines the immediate bearish sequence, as it would recapture a key intraday supply zone and threaten a retest of 4700.

Probability weighted expectation

• Direction down within a corrective framework, with a projected 24 hour range roughly 4385 to 4580. Base path is bounce then fade into 4420 to 4440, with tails to 4390 if liquidity is thin.

Bottom line

• Short term bearish within a medium term uptrend. Tactically sell the bounce into 4545 to 4560 with a take profit at 4422. If achieved, reassess for potential long reentry near 4400 to 4425 depending on reaction strength.