ETH: Liquidity Sweep at 4.3k Sets the Stage for a Reflex Rally to 4,460

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis for ETH (next 24 hours)

1. Market context and structure

• Big picture (daily): ETH rallied from ~2,950 (mid-July) to a high near 4,955 (Aug 24 intraday, daily close 4,780), then entered a broad consolidation 4,200–4,800. A strong bounce from the Sep 25 capitulation low (3,868) carried to an Oct 6 peak (4,755). Since then, momentum cooled and today’s selloff pressed price back into the 4.30–4.35k demand zone. This preserves a medium-term higher-high structure (Oct 6 > Sep 12) but broke the short-term sequence of higher lows (today’s 4,279 undercut prior HLs), shifting the short-term bias to neutral-to-bearish while approaching major support.
• Intraday (hourly): Today’s session traced a persistent sequence of lower highs/lows from ~4,528 down to 4,279, then stabilized and reclaimed 4,33–4,34k into the close. Notably, the 16:00 UTC sweep to 4,279 ran stops below the 4,30–4,32k shelf from early September, then price bounced—classic liquidity sweep and potential spring.

2. Key levels (confluence-driven)

• Supports: 4,330 (hourly pivot), 4,312 (50% retrace of the 3,868→4,755 leg), 4,306 (classic S3 from prior day), 4,295–4,300 (intraday shelf), 4,279 (today’s low), 4,206–4,220 (61.8% retrace of 3,868→4,755 and late-Sep base), 4,146 (late-Sep rebound level).
• Resistances: 4,358–4,378 (hourly supply/pivot cluster), 4,409–4,461 (38.2% retrace of 4,755→4,279 drop; Bollinger mid-to-upper band zone; hourly 200-EMA vicinity), 4,515–4,528 (50% retrace of the same downswing and prior swing highs), 4,573–4,590 (61.8% retrace and MACD resistance zone), 4,687–4,755 (recent high cluster).

3. Trend and moving averages

• Daily 20-EMA (approx): ~4,390–4,420. Price (4,338) is marginally below, signaling short-term softness but close enough that a mean-reversion tag is likely if sellers stall.
• Daily 50-EMA (approx): ~4,420–4,500. Price below 50-EMA confirms the short-term pullback but still above long-term trend regime defined by the 200-EMA (well below 4k), keeping the broader uptrend intact.
• Hourly EMAs: Price is below the 50/100/200-EMA stack, indicating short-term downtrend. However, proximity to a dense demand node raises odds of a reversion attempt toward the hourly 200-EMA (~4,44–4,46k zone).

4. Momentum indicators

• Daily RSI (approx): Mid-40s to high-40s after retreat from the Oct 6 high—neutral-bearish but not oversold, leaving room for a reflexive bounce.
• Hourly RSI: Printed lows near the 30–35 band on the sweep to 4,279, then rose modestly while price stabilized—nascent bullish momentum divergence vs. the 08:00 UTC 4,330 low suggests downside energy is waning.
• MACD daily: Histogram has rolled over from positive; lines converging. This reflects a pullback within a larger uptrend. Not yet a decisive bearish cross on higher timeframe.
• MACD hourly: Negative but flattening; histogram contracting after the 16:00 UTC low, consistent with a pause/bottoming attempt.

5. Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• Daily ATR (recent): ~230–260. Today’s range (~250) aligns with this, implying similar potential range for next 24h.
• Daily Bollinger Bands (20,2): Upper ~4,63k; lower ~4,15–4,20k; mid-band ~4,39–4,42k. Price sits just below the mid-band after tagging the lower half—positioned for a push back toward the center/upper band if buyers defend 4.31–4.33k.
• Hourly Bands: Bands expanded on the selloff; price reverted toward the mid-band late-session. A band squeeze and reversion toward 4,41–4,46k is favored if 4,30–4,33k holds.

6. Fibonacci mapping

• Larger swing (3,868 → 4,755): 38.2% = 4,416; 50% = 4,311; 61.8% = 4,206. Price is oscillating between 4,311 and 4,416—prime retracement support zone. The 4,311 level aligns with today’s stabilization and prior volume node—strong confluence.
• Latest downswing (4,755 → 4,279): 38.2% = 4,461; 50% = 4,517; 61.8% = 4,573. Expect resistance/trade targets to cluster around 4,46k first, then 4,515–4,520.

7. Ichimoku (daily, approximations)

• Tenkan (9): ~4,50k; Kijun (26): ~4,38–4,40k. Price below Tenkan and near/slightly below Kijun: classic mean-reversion setup if Kijun holds as support. Cloud span suggests a flat Kijun magnet near 4,39–4,40k, compatible with a bounce toward that zone.

8. Volume, VWAP, and profile

• Hourly volume: Notable spikes around the breakdown and the 18:00–20:00 UTC bounce—suggests absorption of late sellers near 4,30–4,33k.
• Session VWAP (today, est.): ~4,35–4,36k. Price closed slightly below; VWAP reversion often follows a deep S2/S3 extension.
• Volume profile: Heavy node at 4,30–4,35k and 4,45–4,52k; price tends to migrate between these nodes. After tapping the lower node, a rotation toward the 4,45–4,46k node is probable if 4,31k holds.

9. Pivot points (classic from prior day 10/8 H=4,556, L=4,418, C=4,528)

• P = ~4,500.6; R1 = ~4,583.3; S1 = ~4,444.9; R2 = ~4,639.0; S2 = ~4,362.1; R3 = ~4,721.8; S3 = ~4,306.4. Today’s low probed near S3 and rebounded—statistically, moves beyond S2/S3 frequently mean-revert toward S1/P the following session if trend is not decisively broken.

10. Pattern signals

• Liquidity sweep/spring: The decisive undercut to 4,279 through the 4,30–4,32k shelf, followed by recovery back above 4,33k, is a textbook liquidity sweep. These often precede 1–2 day bounces.
• Potential falling wedge (intraday): Lower lows with waning momentum through the NY session often resolve upward; confirmation would be an hourly close above ~4,358–4,378.
• Candlesticks: Daily candle is long-bodied bearish closing near lows—not a hammer—but the intraday structure shows late-session stabilization. On the hourly, a potential higher low sequence is forming after the 4,279 print.

11. Elliott wave framing (tactical)

• From 3,868 to 4,755 can be labeled as impulsive (wave 3 of a larger sequence or wave 5 of a smaller one). The pullback appears as an A-B-C: A (4,755→4,451), B (4,451→4,528), C (4,528→4,279). C ≈ 0.82×A in magnitude—often sufficient for a completed flat/zigzag. This argues for at least a corrective bounce toward 4,46–4,52k.

12. Probability tree for next 24 hours

• Base case (60%): Hold 4,30–4,33k and rotate up to 4,41–4,46k, potentially tagging 4,461 (38.2% retrace of the latest downswing). Close nearer 4,44–4,46k.
• Range chop (25%): Whipsaw between 4,31–4,41k around VWAP/Kijun without decisive breakout; net neutral close ~4,37–4,40k.
• Bear extension (15%): Lose 4,279 on an hourly close → fast test 4,220–4,206 (61.8% of the larger swing) before responsive buying emerges.

13. Synthesis and edge

• Confluences for a bounce: 50% daily retrace (4,311), classic S3 tag (4,306 area), heavy volume node 4,30–4,33k, VWAP reversion tendency after deep extensions, hourly bullish divergence, and a textbook liquidity sweep at 4,279. These collectively favor a tactical long aiming for 4,46k first.
• Headwinds: Short-term downtrend below hourly EMAs, bearish daily candle, and macro resistance stacked above 4,46k and 4,515. Hence, target the first resistance band rather than reaching for 4,57k inside 24h.

14. Trade plan (tactical, 24h horizon)

• Bias: Buy the dip/retest into 4,31–4,33k with confirmation above 4,338.
• Entry: Optimal limit near 4,325 (within support cluster and below VWAP).
• Target: 4,461 (38.2% retrace of 4,755→4,279; confluence with hourly 200-EMA/volume node).
• Invalidation (risk control, for reference): Hourly close below 4,275 increases probabilities of a slide to 4,22–4,21k; a protective stop would typically sit ~4,268–4,270 (not part of the requested output but crucial for risk).
• Expected R:R if stop ~4,270 and target 4,461 from 4,325: ~2.5:1.

15. 24-hour price path expectation

• High probability path: Early Asia retest 4,31–4,33k → reclaim 4,36–4,38k pivot → push to 4,41–4,46k during EU/US overlap. Projected range: 4,290–4,475, bias to close 4,440–4,460 if support holds.

Decision: Long bias with a tactical buy-the-dip entry and a first target at 4,461 within 24 hours.