ETH at the Golden Pocket: Sell the Rip into 3.77k, Aim for 3.59k

Executive summary

• Direction (next 24h): Down-to-sideways with a reflexive bounce likely sold into; expected intraday range ~3520–3825, with a late-session drift toward 3580–3650.
• Trade plan: Sell the bounce into 3760–3800 (anchor at 3768). Take profit toward 3580–3600 (anchor at 3588). Invalid above 3875–3900.

1. Market structure and trend (multi-timeframe)

• Daily structure: Clear lower-high/lower-low sequence since the Oct 6 peak (4688). The break and daily close below the prior key swing low at 3868 (Sep 25) confirms resumption of the daily downtrend. Today’s candle (so far) is a near marubozu close near the low, signaling continuation risk.
• 4H/1H structure: After a broad 3820–3850 equilibrium through most of the session, price impulsively broke down at 20:00 UTC to 3674 and held the close near the low. Structure is bearish (lower highs: ~3860 → 3845 → 3830; lower lows: ~3743 → 3674), typical of trend continuation. Expect a mean-reversion probe back to the breakdown area (~3760–3785) to locate fresh supply.

2. Moving averages / trend metrics

• 20/50-day SMAs: Price is decisively below both; the 20D is likely around low- to mid-4300s and turning down; the 50D sits a touch higher but also rolling over. That alignment (price < 20D < 50D) is bearish and favors selling rallies.
• 100/200-day: 200D is estimated in the mid- to high-3400s; price remains above it but has sliced through shorter MAs. This says primary bull trend (200D) intact but we’re in a corrective leg with momentum to the downside.
• EMA ribbon (8/21): Bear cross and widening gap on lower timeframes (1H/4H), indicating strong short-term downside momentum.

3. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI (daily): Likely oversold/approaching low-30s after a two-day cascade. This raises short-term bounce risk but, in a downtrend, oversold can persist; rallies typically fade.
• Stochastic (daily/4H): Deep oversold, supports a bounce-to-fade setup rather than bottom-fishing.
• MACD (daily): Bearish cross with expanding negative histogram since early Oct; momentum remains to the downside, consistent with selling rallies.

4. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20D): Price is pressing/breaching the lower band; in trending selloffs this often walks the band. Expect mean-reversion attempts into the mid-band to be shallow (resistance). A tag outside the lower band plus heavy volume favors a snapback to 3740–3820 before the next leg down.
• Keltner Channels: Price pushing/beyond lower KC suggests volatility expansion. First rebounds typically fail near the lower KC midline (in confluence with the 1H breakdown zone ~3760–3800).
• ATR: Daily ATR has expanded dramatically (Oct 10 range >900). A 24h swing of 150–300 is very feasible, matching our entry/target spacing.

5. Fibonacci and levels confluence

• Major swing: Jul 14 low (~2965) → Aug 24 high (~4954). Key retracements:
  • 38.2% ≈ 4195 (broken), 50% ≈ 3959 (broken), 61.8% ≈ 3725, 65% ≈ 3661, 78.6% ≈ 3392.
  • Price now sits in the golden pocket (3725–3661). This zone often tries to bounce—but loss of 3660 risks a fast move to 3520–3460, then 3390.
• Recent swing: Sep 25 low (3868) → Oct 6 high (4688). All key fib supports (0.5/0.618/0.786) have failed; breaking below 3868 invalidated that upswing and projects extension lower.
• Horizontal S/R from the tape:
  • Resistance: 3741–3759 (Jul/Aug/Oct pivots), 3835–3880 (intraday supply), 3959 (50% large swing), 4040–4145, 4217, 4350.
  • Support: 3682/3674 (current/last hour close/low), 3624 (Jul 22 low), 3533–3515, 3460 (Oct 10 wick), 3392 (0.786 major fib).
• Confluence map: 3760–3800 (1H breakdown + VWAP retest zone) aligns with a typical 38.2–50% intraday retrace of the 20:00 dump and sits just above the golden pocket floor—prime for a fade.

6. Volume, liquidity, and order flow context

• Oct 10–11 show capitulation-style volumes; today’s close near the low indicates sellers still in control, but the prior day’s long lower wick (3460 → 3843) warns of latent demand below 3500.
• Liquidity: Clear resting liquidity above ~3760–3800 (breakdown origin). Expect a sweep into that pocket on thin weekend liquidity, then supply to reassert.

7. Ichimoku

• Price is far below the cloud; Tenkan/Kijun overhead around low/mid-4ks. Lagging Span below price and cloud. Strongly bearish regime; rallies towards Tenkan on lower TFs tend to be sold.

8. Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• Count since Oct 6: Impulsive A/1 down to Oct 10; shallow B/iv consolidation through Oct 11 mid-day; C/v extension beginning at 20:00. A corrective iv-type bounce toward 3760–3820 is probable before v pushes into 3520–3600. That matches the preferred sell-the-bounce plan.

9. Pattern recognition

• Intraday bear flag: Sideways 3815–3850 shelf broke at 20:00. Measured move of the flagpole (~120–150 points) targets mid- to high-3600s initially (achieved), with secondary extension into low- to mid-3500s on continuation.
• No confirmed bullish reversal patterns on daily. Hourly may print a minor hammer after a bounce, but needs follow-through above ~3850 to matter (low probability).

10. VWAP and anchored levels

• Anchored VWAP from the 20:00 breakdown likely sits ~3780–3800; first touch typically provides reactionary supply in strong downtrends. That aligns with the proposed short entry.

11. Risk management and scenarios

• Base case (60%): Early bounce to 3760–3800, rejection, then slide to 3580–3650; close in the 3600–3650 band.
• Upside tail (20–25%): Squeeze through 3825–3850, test 3875–3900; above 3900 invalidates short idea short-term and opens 3950–4040.
• Downside tail (15–20%): No bounce; direct flush through 3660 to 3550–3520; quick tag of 3460 possible on liquidity vacuum, then a reflex bounce.
• Stops (suggested): 3875–3900 above supply; dynamic trail after entry if momentum accelerates lower.

12. Time/seasonality notes

• Weekend liquidity is thinner; wicks and stop-runs are more common. That favors a quick intraday pop into supply before continuation lower.

Next 24h price path (most likely)

• Initial recovery toward 3760–3800 (fill-in of the breakdown gap, anchored VWAP tag), rejection, and progression to 3620–3650 with risk of an extension to ~3580. End-of-day close expected between 3600 and 3650 unless a squeeze reclaims 3900.

Conclusion and trade

• Bias: Sell rallies within a dominant short-term downtrend, while acknowledging golden-pocket bounce risk.
• Entry: 3768 (limit sell in supply/AVWAP zone)
• Target: 3588 (first demand shelf above 3530–3520 cluster)
• Invalidation: Sustained reclaim above 3875–3900.
• R:R: ~1.4–1.8 depending on stop selection; ATR supports feasibility within 24h.

Key levels to watch

• Resistance: 3760–3800, 3835–3880, 3959–4040
• Support: 3680–3660, 3624, 3580–3520, 3460, 3390

Note: If 3660 fails cleanly without a bounce, the ideal ‘sell the rip’ may not fill; aggressive momentum sellers can instead use a breakdown entry on a retest of 3660→3650 as resistance, targeting 3520–3580 with a tighter stop.