ETH Springs Back From Capitulation: Targeting the 0.618 Test Near 4.22K

ETH multi-timeframe check-up and 24h game plan

Summary view

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish (countertrend rally within a broader corrective structure)
• Structure: Post-capitulation rebound, higher lows on intraday, advancing momentum with nearby overhead supply 4185–4250
• Method: Buy the dip into 4100–4115 demand, target the 0.618 retracement cluster 4215–4245

1. Price structure and market profile

• Higher timeframe (Daily):
  • From the Oct 6 swing high 4687.8 to the Oct 10 capitulation low 3460.2, price entered a sharp corrective leg. Oct 10 printed a capitulation-style wide-range day (largest volume in series, long lower excursion), followed by stabilization Oct 11 and a strong rebound Oct 12 to 4138.5.
  • Daily closes are still below the 20-day SMA, keeping the larger trend corrective, but the latest two sessions create a valid short-term swing low at 3653–3460 and a rebound sequence targeting mean reversion.
• Intraday (1H):
  • Tight basing 3700–3850 through early 10/12, then expansion 14:00–16:00 UTC with impulsive candles through 4000 and into 4189, followed by orderly pullback/sideways 4105–4156. That is classic breakout → initial flag behavior.
  • Demand zones: 4100–4115 (volume node and breakout retest), 4050–4080 (deeper breakout base), 3990–4010 (round-number support and prior congestion top). Supply zones: 4185–4217 (0.618 fib confluence + prior daily pivot), 4235–4250 (supply shelf), then 4300–4335.

2. Moving averages and trend diagnostics

• Daily SMAs (estimates from closes Sep 23–Oct 12):
  • 20SMA ≈ 4244: Price (4138) below the 20SMA, but rebounding toward it — mean reversion magnet.
  • 50SMA likely above 20SMA (mid-4400s), reflecting the broader corrective bias.
• 1H EMAs:
  • 20EMA > 50EMA post-breakout with both rising; 50EMA is advancing toward the 200EMA. Price holding above rising 20/50 EMA bands supports buy-the-dip tactics.
  • A classic bull-peel pattern: price rides the 20EMA on pullbacks; initial test expected near 4110–4120.

3. Momentum indicators

• RSI (Daily):
  • Likely recovered from near-30 (Oct 10) to low/mid-40s. That’s constructive but not overbought — room to extend toward 50–55 as price mean-reverts toward the 20SMA.
• RSI (1H):
  • Pushed into 60–65 on the breakout; currently mid-to-high 50s after consolidation, consistent with a standard pullback before a second push.
• MACD (Daily):
  • Histogram negative but rising; signal curl up underway. Classic post-capitulation turn suggests follow-through toward the daily 20SMA region (low 4200s).
• MACD (1H):
  • Positive with contracting histogram during the 4105–4155 coil — momentum resting, not reversing; favors another attempt higher once consolidation completes.
• Stochastics (1H):
  • Near mid-range and resetting from overbought — conducive to a buy-the-dip continuation setup rather than immediate exhaustion.

4. Volatility and mean reversion

• ATR (Daily) expanded sharply on Oct 10; current 1-day move capacity likely 200–300 points. With price at 4138, an upside swing into 4215–4250 sits well within 1x ATR and is realistic within 24h if the structure holds.
• Bollinger Bands (Daily, 20,2):
  • Price probed/breached the lower band on Oct 10 and reverted back inside; typical behavior is a drift toward the middle band (≈20SMA ~4240s). Supports a continued corrective pop higher before next decision point.

5. Fibonacci and confluences

• From 4687.8 (Oct 6) to 3460.2 (Oct 10):
  • 38.2% = ~3930 (achieved)
  • 50% = ~4074 (achieved and held)
  • 61.8% = ~4219: next major fib target and resistance. This aligns with:
    • Daily 20SMA ~4244
    • Prior daily close/pivot area 4217 (Sep 29)
    • Today’s intraday supply shelf 4189–4215
  • 78.6% = ~4425 (stretch target beyond 24h unless momentum re-accelerates)

6. Ichimoku (signal-level read)

• Daily: Price still below cloud and Kijun; rebound likely toward Kijun/20SMA area but broader trend not yet reversed.
• 1H: Price above Tenkan/Kijun; cloud twist bullish ahead; pullbacks toward Kijun (~4110–4125 est) are buyable while price holds above cloud.

7. Volume, VWAP, and breadth

• Volume: Oct 10 showed capitulation-scale volume, followed by strong buy-side turnover Oct 12. That pattern often seeds a tradable low and multi-session rebound.
• Intraday VWAP (today): Price has held above session VWAP post-breakout, with pullbacks finding buyers near VWAP bands — a sign of dip absorption by stronger hands.
• OBV/Accumulation (qualitative): Rising on intraday, confirming price advance.

8. Candlestick and pattern read

• Oct 10 daily: Capitulation/long-range candle with a major lower tail vs. subsequent closes — bottoming attempt signal.
• Oct 11 daily: Stabilization day; Oct 12: strong bullish expansion through 4000 with an orderly consolidation into 4100s — a bull flag structure on 1H.
• No material bearish divergence yet on 1H into 4189; minor consolidation suggests energy rebuild rather than distribution.

9. Pivots and levels to trade

• Prior day (Oct 11) classic floor pivots put R3 ≈ 4100; today extended decisively beyond that, indicating trend character. When a day clears R3, next session often respects pullbacks to the R2/R3 neighborhood as support; here, that maps to 4100–4120.
• Key levels ahead (24h horizon):
  • Support: 4110 (flag base/Kijun), 4070–4080 (micro shelf), 3990–4010 (round number and value area), 3960 (last defense before bullish thesis invalidated short-term).
  • Resistance: 4189 (intraday high), 4215–4225 (0.618 fib + prior pivot), 4235–4250 (supply shelf), 4300–4335 (secondary if squeeze extends).

10. Scenario mapping (next 24h)

• Base case (60%): Early pullback toward 4100–4115, buyers absorb, push to 4185–4225; modest overshoot to 4235–4250 possible if momentum re-engages. Close in the 4180–4230 band.
• Bearish alt (30%): Failure to hold 4070–4080; slip to 4010–4020/3990 liquidity; bounce attempts capped sub-4130; range-bound or weak close near 4020–4080.
• Bullish squeeze (10%): Shallow pullback only to 4125–4135, straight-through bid breaks 4189, tags 4235–4250 quickly; if liquidity thin, wick toward 4280–4300 before reversion.

11. Strategy synthesis across methods

• Mean reversion (Bollinger/20SMA): Pull toward 4240s favors a long.
• Momentum (MACD/RSI/1H EMA stack): Resting momentum with positive structure — buy pullbacks preferred over chasing.
• Fib confluence: Next magnet 4219; anticipate reaction there; plan exits into that band.
• Market profile/VWAP: Value shifted up; use VWAP/POC retests around 4105–4120 to initiate risk-defined longs.
• Risk management: Invalidation on a decisive break and hourly close below 4070; a harder stop below 3990 (round number and prior value) if carrying a wider swing.

Conclusion

• The evidence supports Buy-the-dip for a tactical long targeting the 0.618 retracement/20SMA cluster (4215–4245) within 24h, with optimal entry on a retest of 4100–4115 demand.

Trade plan specifics

• Position: Long (tactical, 24h horizon)
• Entry: 4108 (limit buy into demand and 1H Kijun/EMA cluster)
• Take profit: 4238 (into 0.618 fib/20SMA/overhead supply band)
• Suggested protective stop (not part of order fields): 4024 conservative; or tighter 4068 if seeking 1.5–2.0R dynamically; trail below 1H 20EMA on momentum continuation.
• Notes: If price fails to pull back to the entry and instead reclaims 4189 with momentum, an alternate add-on/market entry can target 4215–4225 with a tighter stop under 4148.

Risk factors

• Elevated daily ATR post-capitulation increases whipsaw risk; size accordingly.
• Overhead supply at 4215–4250 can trigger sharp rejections; exit proactively into strength.
• If 4070 breaks on hourly close, defer longs and reassess at 4010–3990.