ETH: Post‑Capitulation Bounce Poised to Probe 4.36–4.39k — Buy the Dip, Sell Into First Supply

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Moderately bullish continuation after a capitulation low and strong two‑day recovery. Expect a buy‑the‑dip setup to hold 4200–4230 support and attempt 4320–4390 resistance. Probability: Bullish 60%, Neutral 25%, Bearish 15%.
• Plan: Buy pullback near 4235–4245 with take‑profit into 4360–4390 supply. Invalidation on sustained break back below 4148 (61.8% retrace of today’s impulse).

What just happened (context and structure)

• Large capitulation 2025‑10‑10 (low 3460, close 3843) flushed liquidity and expanded ATR. Follow‑through stabilization on 10‑11, strong demand candle on 10‑12 (3701–4195, close 4164), and today’s (10‑13) intraday advance to 4290 before consolidating ~4260.
• Market has reclaimed key prior breakdown pocket 4200–4230 (Sept 22–25 congestion and Oct 1 pivot zone). This area now acts as a support shelf.
• Overhead supply remains 4335–4395 (cluster of late‑Sept/early‑Oct closes and failed bounces: 9/10–10/5 region, plus classic pivot R1 from 10‑12). A clean reclaim above 4395 would open 4450–4520 “gap/imbalance” left by the Oct 10 collapse.

Multi‑timeframe trend read

• Daily trend: After Aug 24 top near 4954, ETH traced a lower‑highs sequence into the Oct 10 flush. The last two sessions mark a potential trend inflection: price has reclaimed the 20‑day mean area (approx low‑4300s) but remains under the 50‑day trend zone (mid‑4400s). This is typical of early recovery within a larger corrective regime.
• 4h/1h structure: Clear inverted head‑and‑shoulders formed today: LS ~4140 (10:00), head ~4068 (11–12:00), RS ~4100–4135 (midday), neckline ~4178–4185. Breakout at 17:00 to 4230 achieved measured move to ~4285–4290. Price is consolidating in a bull flag/ascending triangle just under 4280–4290.
• Micro trend: Higher lows since 11:00 (4068 → 4132 → 4175 → 4210+), with pullbacks bought and strong impulsive green candles during US hours (18:00–20:00 high volume).

Key levels (derived S/R, pivots, Fibs)

• Immediate support: 4230–4245 (breakout retest + 28–35% pullback of 4068→4286 swing). Next support: 4206–4210 (38.2% retrace). Critical: 4148–4154 (61.8% retrace and intraday base). Below that, 4100 and 4035.
• Immediate resistance: 4310–4339 (R1 from 10‑12 pivot ≈ 4339). Next: 4360–4395 (supply cluster and prior closes). Stretch: 4450–4520 (liquidity gap from 10‑10 large range).
• Classical pivots using 10‑12 (H 4195.4, L 3701.5, C 4164.4): P ≈ 4020.4; R1 ≈ 4339.4; R2 ≈ 4514.3; S1 ≈ 3845.5. Price is between P and R1 and approaching R1 — consistent with a controlled recovery aiming for first resistance.
• Fibonacci of today’s impulse (L 4068 → H 4286/4290): 23.6% ≈ 4218; 38.2% ≈ 4206; 50% ≈ 4177; 61.8% ≈ 4148. Current 4260 holds above 23.6%—healthy consolidation; pullbacks into 4235–4210 are attractive if defended.

Momentum and oscillators

• Daily RSI likely recovering from sub‑30 prints on 10‑10 toward the 45–50 “midline reclaim.” This favors continuation bounces into first resistance before any overbought issues arise.
• 1h RSI printed strong bull range shift: pullback lows >40, peaks ~60–65 during US session. This is typical of an emerging intraday uptrend; buy dips preferred over chasing breakouts unless a clean 4290+ expansion arrives with volume.
• MACD: Daily histogram contracting toward a positive cross; 1h MACD already crossed up post‑neckline break, still above zero and flattening — consistent with flag consolidation rather than trend failure.

Volatility, bands, and mean reversion

• ATR expanded dramatically on 10‑10 and is compressing, but remains elevated. Expect 24h realized range 250–350 points (6–8%).
• Daily Bollinger: Price reclaimed/hovering around the 20‑day mid‑band (low‑4300s). Typical path after a capitulation is tag of the mid‑band, brief consolidation, then probe toward the upper band (currently mid‑4600s). First, ETH must clear 4395; thus, a 24h objective into high‑4300s is reasonable.

Volume/flow reads

• Highest volumes around the flush and subsequent recovery. Today’s push from 17:00 onward shows expanding volume on up candles (18:00–20:00) and lighter volume on the modest pullback at 21:00 — constructive.
• OBV (qualitative) rising since 10‑12; no obvious distribution at the top of today’s range.

Pattern diagnostics

• Inverted H&S achieved its initial target, now transitioning into a shallow bull flag below 4280–4290. A measured flag breakout (pole ~120–150 points) would project 4400–4430—right into the lower edge of the 4450–4520 gap. For the next 24h, a conservative slice of that move to 4360–4390 is more probable.
• Candlestick context: 10‑10 long lower‑shadow candle (capitulation), 10‑12 strong demand candle, 10‑13 consolidating green with upper wick under resistance — classic “pause before push” if support holds.

Moving averages and Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Price reclaimed short MAs on 1h (20/50‑hour), using them as intraday support during the US session; slope up. Daily 20‑SMA region ≈ low‑4300s, price is slightly below/near it; 50‑SMA mid‑4400s overhead. The 20>50 crossover is not present (still corrective regime), but short‑term momentum favors testing the 50‑SMA underside later this week if the bounce persists.
• Ichimoku (daily, qualitative): Price likely piercing the Kijun/Tenkan zone; cloud still overhead. On 1h, price trades above Tenkan/Kijun with a thin future cloud — prone to continuation after brief consolidation.

Quant/rotational cues

• Rate of Change (5–10 day) turned up sharply from deeply negative to positive — typical mean‑reversion off oversold extremes.
• Seasonality/time‑of‑day: Strength appeared during US hours with higher volume; expect dip‑buying during Asia if pullback toward 4235–4210, with follow‑through into EU/US if 4290 breaks.

Risk/alternative paths

• Bullish base case (60%): Hold 4230–4245, then stair‑step to 4320–4339 (R1 test); if momentum/volume confirm, extension into 4360–4390 to tag supply cluster; likely stalls there on first attempt.
• Neutral chop (25%): Range 4210–4290 with multiple rejections at 4280–4290; setup still favors buying lower bound for attempts at range highs.
• Bearish failure (15%): Loss of 4206 → quick test of 4177/4148; loss of 4148 invalidates the intraday recovery and re‑opens 4100/4035. In that case, stand down or flip bias lower on a weak retest of 4200 from below.

Trade plan (next 24h)

• Direction: Buy dips (long) into 4235–4245 with limit entry, allowing for a possible flush to 4210.
• Target: 4360–4390 zone; set take‑profit slightly in front of the level to increase fill probability.
• Invalidation (stop, for risk control): Below 4146 (61.8% retrace break + prior base), or tighter tactical stop below 4202 if seeking higher R:R on intraday basis; not part of the requested fields but critical for real execution.
• R:R example: Entry 4238, TP 4388 (+150), SL 4146 (−92) → ~1.6:1; improves to >2:1 if using a tighter tactical stop under 4202.

Bottom line

• The tape shows a textbook post‑capitulation recovery with reclaimed support at 4200–4230, constructive intraday momentum, and room to test the first major supply at 4360–4390. The optimal play is to buy a controlled pullback, aiming to exit into that supply within the next 24 hours.