ETH: Higher Lows Above 4k Set the Stage for a 4.12k–4.15k Squeeze in the Next 24 Hours

Summary view

• Bias next 24h: Moderately bullish (buy dips). Expect a pullback into 4030–4050, then continuation toward 4120–4150. Breakout extension could reach 4200–4235 if momentum accelerates. Downside invalidation on clean loss of 3980.
• Key levels: Support 4050, 4035, 4010, 3985–3990, 3940. Resistance 4075, 4100, 4125, 4150, 4215–4235.
• Plan: Buy limit on a pullback; target a push to the 4125–4150 supply shelf. Manage risk below 3980 (stop discussed for context; only TP provided in fields below).

Market structure and price action (multi-timeframe)

• Daily trend: From Aug highs (~4.95k) ETH rolled over and accelerated lower into the 10/10 capitulation (low ~3460). Since then, a V-bounce retraced into the low-4k’s, followed by a higher-low sequence: 3750 (10/11), 3833 (10/17 intraday), 3890 (10/18 close), and now 4062 (current). Structure is transitioning from bearish to neutral/bullish on lower timeframes while still below key daily MAs.
• 4H/1H structure: Clear higher lows since 10/16–10/18 and a break/retest of the 3995–4005 neckline (former resistance now support). Overnight session (UTC) lifted from ~3940 to a high ~4075, consolidating above 4k with shallow pullbacks—bullish acceptance above prior resistance.
• Candles: Post-break candles are small-bodied with upper wicks under 4075 but no aggressive rejection—suggests absorption rather than reversal. The 03:00–05:00 UTC impulse (10/20) is the impulse leg; current drift is a potential bull flag under 4075.

Volume, momentum, and volatility

• Volume (daily): Extreme spike on 10/10 (capitulation) followed by decaying but still-elevated flows through 10/14–10/17, then lighter on 10/18. The most recent intraday ramp (03:00–05:00 UTC) occurred on expanding hourly volume—healthy for continuation.
• Volume (intraday profile proxy): Visible nodes around 3980–4020 (acceptance) and lighter participation 4048–4080 (LVN). Acceptance above 4050 tends to propel price to the next high-volume zone near 4100–4125.
• Momentum (RSI):
  • 1H RSI climbed from mid-40s to mid/high-50s–low-60s during the breakout—momentum regime shift above 50 favors dips being bought.
  • 4H RSI around mid-50s with room to run before overbought; daily RSI recovering from oversold, hovering high-40s/low-50s—supports mean-reversion toward the daily midline but not yet stretched.
• MACD:
  • 1H MACD crossed up during the 03:00 UTC surge; histogram positive and widening modestly—supports near-term continuation.
  • 4H MACD flattening and curling up toward a bullish cross; daily MACD still sub-zero but converging—classic early-stage recovery.
• Volatility: Daily ATR expanded sharply on 10/10; now compressing but still elevated. Last 24h intraday ranges ~2–3%. Expect 2–4% potential swings next 24h, with skew to the upside while 3980 holds.

Key technical levels and confluence

• Support zones:
  • 4050–4045: Recent micro swing lows (05:00 low 4046), close/close cluster (04:00 close 4049). First buy-the-dip zone.
  • 4035–4025: Prior breakout area and VWAP-prox zone from the impulse leg; deeper but healthy pullback.
  • 3995–3985: Neckline retest and psychological shelf at 4k. Loss turns the session neutral-to-bearish.
  • 3940–3935: Session base and 10/20 00:00–02:00 closes. Failure here reopens the lower range.
• Resistance zones:
  • 4075–4080: Intraday spike high; break likely unlocks 4100 quickly.
  • 4100: Round number and prior rotational pivot.
  • 4125: 10/14 daily close pivot; a known supply shelf.
  • 4150: Round/extension target and local measured move completion from bull flag.
  • 4215–4235: Daily resistance band (9/29 close 4217; 0.618 bounce retrace proximity) if momentum extends.

Fibonacci mapping (post-capitulation bounce)

• Swing considered: 10/10 low 3460 to pre-crash swing high 4736.
• Levels from the low upward:
  • 0.382 ≈ 3947: Already reclaimed and held on dips—constructive.
  • 0.500 ≈ 4098: Current magnet above; acceptance here often targets 0.618.
  • 0.618 ≈ 4248: Converges with daily resistance 4215–4235; natural profit-taking zone for a 1–2 day push if momentum persists.

Bollinger Bands

• Daily: Bands widened on 10/10; price now traveling from lower band toward the middle band (which likely sits in the low-4.3k area). Room exists to mean-revert higher before encountering substantial resistance.
• 1H/4H: Price riding the upper band with mid-band (20MA) in the 4010–4035 region—buying pullbacks toward the mid-band aligns with continuation.

Moving averages (approximate, directional use)

• Daily 20SMA: Likely ~4.30–4.35k after prolonged 4.4–4.7k trading pre-crash; price below it, so higher timeframe still corrective.
• Daily 50SMA: Higher than the 20SMA (~4.4–4.5k). Medium-term trend down/flat.
• 4H MAs: Fast MAs crossed up post-10/18, with price above 4H 20/50 EMA—short-term trend up.
• Read: Lower timeframe uptrend against a still-challenged daily trend—classic swing-reversion setup favoring upside until 4.12–4.25k.

Ichimoku (directional inference)

• Daily: Price below cloud; Tenkan likely rising below Kijun but converging—longer-term headwinds remain until >4.3–4.4k.
• 4H: Tenkan > Kijun with price probing/above cloud base; pullbacks into Kijun (≈4.02–4.05k) should find buyers while baseline holds.

Market profile concepts and liquidity

• Liquidity pools: Resting stops above 4075 and 4100, then 4125. Sweep and hold above 4100 often fuels a push to 4125–4150.
• Below: Liquidity under 4010 and 3985; failure to hold 4k likely triggers a fast test of 3940.

Pattern work

• 1H inverse H&S/double-bottom variant: Bases around 3938–3945, neckline ~4000–4005—already broken and retested; measured move projects ~+120–150 to 4120–4150.
• 1H bull flag: Post-05:00 UTC consolidation under 4075 looks like a flag; break above 4075 unlocks 4100/4125 quickly.

Risk management, scenarios, and probabilities (subjective)

• Base case (≈60%): Pullback 4045–4030, then impulse to 4120–4150 by tomorrow’s session. Consolidation above 4075 validates.
• Bull case (≈25%): Clean break and hourly close >4150, continuation toward 4210–4235 (coincides with 0.618 retrace and daily supply). Would require sustained bid and broader crypto risk-on.
• Bear case (≈15%): Lose 3990; momentum fades; revisit 3940 base. A daily close back under 3980 would negate the short-term bullish structure.

Strategy synthesis and trade plan

• Rationale to buy dips: Higher lows + reclaimed 0.382 Fib + 1H/4H momentum shift + acceptance above 4k neckline + rising support shelf at 4030–4050.
• Optimal entry: Staggered between 4030–4040 is preferred; single reference for this plan: 4032–4035. We’ll specify 4032 as the optimal buy limit.
• Target: 4145–4150 first take-profit, aligning with measured move and daily pivot (4125) extension. We’ll set TP at 4148.
• Invalidation (context only): A firm break/close below 3980 suggests standing down; below 3940 flips bias to sell rallies.

What would change my mind

• An hourly breakdown and acceptance below 3990 with expanding sell volume, or repeated rejections at 4075 followed by lower highs into 4010 would shift bias to neutral/bearish.

Bottom line

• Buy-the-dip setup while price holds above 4k. Target the 4125–4150 supply zone within 24 hours. Risk is controlled by avoiding entries if price collapses through 3990–3980 support.