ETH coils under 3,950: pivot and fib confluence favor a weekend pop toward 4,000

ETHUSD multi-timeframe technical checklist and 24h game plan

1. Market structure and trend context (Daily)

• Big picture: After the August spike to ~4954 (Aug 24), ETH shifted into distribution and rolled over. A capitulative washout on Oct 10 printed a deep low ~3460 on record volume, then a reflex rally to ~4164 on Oct 12. Since then: a sequence of lower highs and lower lows into Oct 22 (~3808), followed by a basing attempt between ~3800 and ~4050. Current daily close (Oct 24) 3934; spot 3936 — i.e., in the lower half of the broader 3800–4050 balance.
• Market structure: Short-term base building with higher micro-lows vs Oct 22, but still below dominant daily resistance band 4015–4085; broader trend remains corrective/bearish until ETH can reclaim and hold above ~4030–4085.

2. Key levels (confluence mapping)

• Immediate intraday range: 3920–3955 (tight coil since 00:00 UTC). Micro higher lows are forming; resistance capped near 3953–3955.
• Nearby supports: 3930 (intraday VWAP zone), 3920–3915 (micro shelf), 3890 (hourly shelf), 3855 (daily S1), 3808 (daily swing low).
• Nearby resistances: 3955 (micro lid), 3980 (0.618 of the 4084→3808 downswing), 4000–4008 (psych round + R1), 4018–4036 (late-Oct supply), 4084 (Oct 20 LH, top of near-term range), 4141–4217 (prior breakdown zone).
• Classic daily floor-trader pivots for Oct 25 (from Oct 24 H/L/C 4002.56/3849.72/3934.57): • Pivot P ≈ 3928.95 • R1 ≈ 4008.18; R2 ≈ 4081.79 • S1 ≈ 3855.34; S2 ≈ 3776.11 Price currently trades marginally above P, biasing mean-reversion flows toward R1 while P acts as intraday support.
• Fibonacci retracements: • Swing 4084.16 → 3808.12: 0.382 ≈ 3913.5, 0.5 ≈ 3946.1, 0.618 ≈ 3978.8. Price is oscillating around the 0.5 with repeated probes toward 0.618 — a typical pre-breakout staging if buyers can hold above the 0.5. • Larger swing 4953.7 → 3460.2: 0.382 ≈ 4031, 0.5 ≈ 4207, 0.618 ≈ 4383. ETH remains below 0.382 on this larger frame — broader trend still corrective; rallies into ~4030–4085 likely meet supply first.

3. Moving averages and momentum (Daily)

• 9-EMA: ~3905–3920 (est.). Price at 3936 is modestly above the 9-EMA — a short-term bullish tell.
• 20-SMA: ~4086 (est.). Price is below the 20-SMA by ~150, confirming the intermediate trend is still down/neutral.
• 50-SMA: well above spot (est. mid-4k), reinforcing overhead supply overhead.
• 200-SMA: likely above spot (est. low-4k), signaling we’re below the long-term mean.
• MACD (12,26,9): Histogram likely ticking up from negative toward zero after the Oct 22–24 bounce — early momentum inflection, but still sub-zero (i.e., countertrend bounce risk).
• RSI(14): mid-40s to low-50s estimate — neutral/slightly bearish but rising from oversold; ample room to push up toward 50–55 before overbought risk.
• Stochastic: lifting from oversold to midline; supportive of further upside follow-through absent a breakdown of 3915–3920.
• ADX/DMI: Trend strength modest; -DI likely still marginally above +DI, but converging. This favors range-trade/breakout plays over trend-chasing.

4. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) compressed relative to the Oct 10 shock; today’s intraday range is very tight (~35). Tight ranges often precede expansion moves.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ≈ 4086; price in lower half of bands. Bands have narrowed versus early Oct — a volatility squeeze brewing. A push toward the mid-band (~4.08k) would require clearing the 4.0–4.1k supply shelf.
• Keltner Channels: Price sits near/below the midline; a sustained close above the midline would support a drift to the upper channel near 4.0k–4.05k.

5. Ichimoku (Daily)

• Tenkan: ≈ 3955–3960 (est.); Kijun: ≈ 4200–4210 (est.). Price sits below Tenkan/Kijun and below the Cloud (future span ~4.08–4.16k). Bias is still bearish on higher TFs, but a reclaim of Tenkan (~3958) often precedes a probe to 0.618 fib (~3979) and then psych 4k.

6. Volume/flow context

• Volume climaxed on Oct 10. Subsequent sessions show declining volumes, typical of a stabilization phase. Oct 24’s green close on moderate volume suggests demand returned near 3.85–3.90k.
• Volume profile (recent weeks): A prominent HVN sits ~3.98–4.04k, coinciding with the 0.618 (3979), psych 4k, and R1 (4008). This is a magnet/resistance cluster; price often tags HVNs in mean-reversion, then decides trend.
• OBV: Stabilizing with a slight uptilt over the last 2–3 sessions — incremental accumulation.

7. Intraday structure (hourlies provided)

• Since 00:00 UTC, price printed a series of slightly higher lows (3914 → 3918 → 3922+ → 3929+) while repeatedly testing 3950–3955. That’s a textbook ascending triangle micro-pattern within a tight volatility regime — typically resolves up if support holds.
• Hourly candles show small real bodies, upper wicks around 3950–55 but no heavy rejection tails — sellers are present but not aggressive.

8. Pattern synthesis

• Micro: Ascending triangle coil under 3955 with rising base ~3920–3930; favors upside breakout to 3975–4000 if 3920 holds.
• Meso (daily): Potential bear-flag/base hybrid. The decisive tell is acceptance above 3980–4008 (0.618 + R1 + round number). Failure there keeps the bear-flag thesis intact.
• Harmonics/Elliott (low confidence): The Oct 10 impulse down looks like a completed wave; current action reads as a corrective ABC with C possibly aiming at ~3980–4010 before reassessing. Confidence modest due to overlapping structures and weekend liquidity.

9. Quantified confluence into next 24h

• Upside path (base case, ~55–60%): Hold above the daily pivot (3929) → squeeze through 3955 lid → tag 3978–3985 (0.618) → probe 3990–4008 (psych + R1). If momentum remains, a wick into 4015–4030 is possible, but acceptance above 4k on a Saturday requires participation — expect fading above 4k unless volume expands.
• Downside path (~40–45%): Lose 3920–3915 → slip to 3890 shelf → if liquidity sweeps 3890 and can’t reclaim 3929, sellers could press 3855 (S1). A sustained break of 3855 reopens 3808.
• Expected 24h range: 3890–4010, with midline magnet near 3950–3980 and a skew toward testing 4k.

10. Strategy, triggers, and risk

• Bias: Tactical long for a mean-reversion pop into the 3980–4008 confluence, respecting that the higher-TF trend is not yet repaired.
• Entry plan: • Primary: Limit buy near the daily pivot/coil base at 3928–3929 to exploit the rising micro-floor. This buys into support with tight invalidation. • Alternate momentum trigger: If price convincingly breaks and holds above 3956 on volume, a breakout buy can target 3985–4008. (Not encoded in the single-price output, but actionable.)
• Targeting: Scale/TP into 3978–3995 (0.618 + round number magnet). Conservative TP just under 4k to avoid queue resistance.
• Invalidation/stop (not part of requested output but crucial): Below 3914 (hourly structure break) or worst-case below 3898 (loss of micro-shelf), to avoid getting caught in a slide toward 3855.
• R/R: From 3929 to 3992 target ≈ +63; stop ~3914 (−15) or 3898 (−31) yields ~4.2:1 or ~2:1 respectively — attractive for a weekend breakout attempt.

11. Indicator-by-indicator verdict

• RSI/Stoch: Supportive of a push higher from neutral; not overbought — Bullish short-term.
• MACD: Turning up from negative — Bullish short-term, caution medium-term.
• MAs: Price > 9EMA but < 20SMA/200SMA — Neutral to mildly bullish ST, bearish MT/LT.
• Bollinger/Keltner: Squeeze + price in lower half — favors a volatility expansion; directional bias slightly up given micro structure — Bullish ST.
• Ichimoku: Below Cloud and Kijun; Tenkan reclaim attempt — Cautious Bullish ST within Bearish MT.
• Pivots/Fibs: Trading above P with targets at 0.618 and R1 — Bullish ST path defined.
• Volume/OBV: Stabilizing with mild accumulation — Slightly Bullish.
• Price action: Ascending triangle against 3955 — Breakout-prone to the upside — Bullish ST.

12. 24h forecast and trade decision

• Probable move: Test and likely breach of 3955, run to 3978–3995, with fading risk near 4k. If the pivot (3929) fails decisively, expect a mean-reversion dip to 3890 before another attempt higher or a deeper slide to 3855.
• Net: Lean long for a tactical weekend pop into 4k, with tight downside control.

Decision: Buy (Long)

• Open: 3929.0 (daily pivot support; optimal pullback entry in the current coil)
• Close/TP: 3992.0 (just below the 4k + R1 cluster to maximize fill probability)
• Note: If momentum breakout above 3956 occurs without a pullback, a chase entry is valid with a slightly lower TP (e.g., 3986–3990) to maintain favorable R/R.

Risk notes

• Weekend liquidity increases slippage risk and false breaks. Respect invalidation levels. Avoid holding beyond 4k without confirmation/acceptance over 4008–4015.
• No macro/derivatives data included; plan relies on price/volume/TA only.