ETH: Sell the Bounce—Targeting 3.05k After a 3.33–3.40k Relief Rally

Executive summary

• Context: ETH has transitioned from late-August/September strength (4.6–4.9k) into a persistent October-to-November markdown, culminating today in an accelerated selloff that broke the Oct 10 swing low (≈3460) and printed a fresh local low near 3079–3131 on heavy volume. Current price ≈3208, intraday bounce from sub-3.1k has stalled below first resistance bands (3.23–3.33k).
• 24h bias: Bearish trend intact with strong momentum. Oversold conditions support a relief bounce first, but rallies likely get sold. Expect path: bounce into 3.30–3.40k (ideally 3.33–3.40k), then continuation lower to re-test 3.10–3.05k; a psychological sweep of 3k is possible if risk sentiment deteriorates.
• Plan: Sell the bounce (short). Optimal entry zone clusters around 3.33–3.40k (Fib 38.2% of the 3911→3079 leg, prior intraday supply, below broken supports). Primary target 3.05–3.10k; secondary extension 3.00–2.98k if momentum persists.

Step-by-step technical analysis and toolkit synthesis

1. Price action and market structure (HTF → LTF)

• Daily structure: Lower highs since mid-Sep/late-Sep (≈4.95k→4.76k→4.71k→4.61k→4.35k) and now lower lows, with today’s break of the Oct 10 pivot low (≈3460). That break confirms a continuation of the bear leg rather than a completed correction. Structure remains decisively bearish on daily.
• 4H/1H structure: A cascading sequence of supply steps today: 3550 → 3430 → 3365 → 3229 → 3131 → 3079/78 (21:00Z). The post-capitulation bounce reclaimed 3190–3210 briefly but failed to retake intraday breakdown levels near 3230–3260 and 3330–3350. That’s classic “mean-reversion within a downtrend,” not a reversal.
• Candles: The 21:00Z hourly shows capitulation-like expansion (very large true range) with a long lower shadow and strong volume, followed by a muted inside/doji at 22:00Z—indicative of initial absorption but no decisive reversal. Daily candle will likely close as a wide-range bearish body closing below prior supports, with only a modest lower wick—favors continuation after a pause/bounce.

2. Volume, volatility, and momentum diagnostics

• Volume: Today’s intraday volume spikes at/near the lows (21:00Z notably elevated). On Balance Volume (OBV) on a daily approximation trends down persistently from late September, confirming distribution/markdown. High-volume breakdowns through 3460 and 3339 (S2 pivot) signify genuine supply, not illiquid wicks.
• ATR/volatility: Daily ATR has expanded markedly (400–500+ pts today). Regime shift to high-vol amplifies both the magnitude of bounces and the risk of fresh legs lower. Expect the next 24h range roughly 280–450 points, centered on 3200.
• Momentum: Daily and 4H momentum remain negative. MACD histogram has expanded below zero; signal lines are below the zero-line. DMI: -DI above +DI with ADX rising—trend strength increasing, supporting “sell-the-rip.” RSI daily likely sub-30 (oversold), 1H RSI recovering from sub-20 to mid-30s/40s—consistent with a short-lived bounce rather than a reversal. Any nascent bullish divergence is visible on 15m but not confirmed on 1H/daily.

3. Moving averages and trend filters

• 20D SMA/EMA: Estimated ≈3980–4050 and sloping down; price is far below, indicative of strong downside dislocation. Bollinger mean reversion suggests rallies toward 3400–3600 are possible over days, but within 24h the 3350–3500 area should act as supply.
• 50D SMA: Roughly ≈4400 and falling—deep bear bias confirmed. On 4H/1H, the 8/21/55 EMA ribbon is stacked bearishly overhead. Expect VWAP rejections intraday on pops.

4. Bollinger Bands and Keltner Channels

• 20D Bollinger: Price pierced/breached the lower band (estimated lower band ≈3560–3600 yesterday, will expand lower after today’s print). This argues for mean reversion bounces but not necessarily trend reversals. On 1H, price has been hugging/submerging below the lower Keltner, signaling squeeze release to the downside; typical sequence is “breach → reflex bounce → retest/break.”

5. Ichimoku Cloud

• Daily: Price below cloud; Tenkan < Kijun; lagging span below price and cloud—full bearish stack. Kijun around prior consolidation (≈4.1k) far above; distance from Tenkan/Kijun is stretched, enabling short-term snaps higher, but any bounce below the cloud should be sold.
• 4H/1H: Below cloud with thick bearish kumo ahead; any 1H cloud tests near 3350–3450 likely reject initially.

6. Fibonacci mapping (confluence zones)

• Nov 2 high → Nov 4 low: 3911 → 3079 range = 832 pts. • 23.6% = 3276 (near current congestion). 38.2% = 3397. 50% = 3490. 61.8% = 3583. Confluence: 3397–3490 exactly overlaps prior intraday supply and broken support cluster (3430/3460/3500). This is the preferred short zone.
• Sep 13 high → Nov 4 low: 4763 → 3079 range ≈ 1684 pts. • 23.6% ≈ 3476–3491; 38.2% ≈ 3710–3735; 50% ≈ 3920–3930. Near-term, 23.6% at ≈3490 matches the 50% of the short swing. Strong confluence at 3490 ±15.

7. Pivot points (classic, using Nov 3 H/L/C: H 3912.6, L 3560.3, C 3602.3)

• P ≈ 3691.7; S1 ≈ 3470.8; S2 ≈ 3339.4; S3 ≈ 3118.5; R1 ≈ 3823.2.
• Today broke S2 (3339) and tagged S3 (3118) with an underside bounce—textbook extended move. Mean reversion towards S2 (≈3339) is likely before next leg; failure there favors a re-drive to S3 and below.

8. Support/resistance ledger (nearest, most actionable)

• Resistance/supply: • 3330–3350: underside of S2 pivot and intraday supply; 38.2% swing retrace begins at 3397 but early sellers often step in around 3330–3350 in strong trends. • 3395–3415: 38.2% retrace; prior 14:00–15:00Z rejection band; LVN to HVN transition area intraday. • 3460–3500: Oct 10 low → now resistance; 50% retrace and round number; thick supply.
• Support/demand: • 3200–3220: minor intraday pivot; currently toggling. • 3130–3115: S3 pivot zone; earlier bounce origin; liquidity pool. • 3075–3050: session extremes/liquidity; beneath here opens the 3k handle sweep. • 3000: psychological; expect algorithmic responsive bids, but a breach can accelerate to 2960–2920 air pocket.

9. Elliott Wave and pattern context

• Since late-September top, ETH appears in a 5-wave impulsive markdown on daily/4H. The break of 3460 suggests we are in either wave 3 extension or the early wave 5 following a shallow wave 4. Intraday capitulation suggests a subwave v completion locally, setting up an abc corrective bounce (wave 4 minor) into 3330–3500 before the next impulse lower targeting 3050/3000. This is consistent with the “sell the bounce” plan.
• Macro pattern: Left-shoulder/top around 4.6–4.8k with a neckline break near 4.2k already realized; measured move projected to mid/low 3k has been achieved. Break below 3.46k activates secondary extension targets into low 3k.

10. VWAP/Intraday mean, market microstructure

• Today’s session VWAP likely sits materially above current price (estimated mid-3.4k given early day prints before cascade). Reversions toward VWAP on high-vol trend days typically reject on first touch. Expect sellers to defend 3.33–3.45k on approach. Liquidity maps imply resting offers above 3.33k; liquidity below 3.10k likely thin until 3k.

11. Oscillators and divergences

• RSI/Stoch: Daily RSI near/just below 30 (oversold) but no bullish crossover yet; 1H RSI turning up from deeply oversold—supportive of a bounce. However, no 1H higher high + higher low sequence confirmed; structure still bearish.
• MACD: 1H histogram contracting slightly after max negative—early relief sign, not a reversal signal. Daily MACD expanding negative—bears control the higher timeframe.

12. Risk regime and scenarios (next 24 hours)

• Base case (≈55–60%): Relief bounce into 3330–3400, rejection, drift to 3130–3115, probe 3075–3050, potential 3k sweep if liquidity accelerates. Close near 3100–3180.
• Bear extension (≈25–30%): Minimal bounce; direct slide through 3115→3050→3000, with a terminal flush to 2960–2920 before a stronger reflex. This scenario likely requires macro risk-off or BTC leg lower.
• Bull surprise (≈10–15%): Strong V-reversal, quick reclaim of 3410 and 3490; daily close back above 3500 invalidates immediate downside and opens 3580–3650 squeeze. Low probability without catalyst given breadth and volume distribution.

13. Synthesis and trade plan

• Edge: Trend-following with mean-reversion timing. The highest-probability, best R:R within 24h is to fade the first substantial bounce into the 3.33–3.40k supply shelf (ideally 3.35–3.40k) aligned with Fib 38.2% and pivot S2 underside.
• Entry: Staggered/limit entry near 3335 (core), optional add near 3395–3410 if reached.
• Invalidation/stop (not part of the requested output fields, but critical for risk): 3485–3510 (above the 50% retrace and reclaimed broken shelf). Conservative stops above 3510; tighter tactical stop 3460–3475 if actively managed.
• Targets: TP1 3130–3115, TP2 3055, extension 3005–2985. For the single required “close price,” 3055 balances high hit probability with attractive R:R.
• Position sizing: Scale to volatility; given daily ATR >400, risk per unit should be reduced. Use hard stops; do not average down above invalidation.

14. Why not buy now?

• Although oversold, the higher-timeframe structure is bearish with expanding downside momentum. Buying here is a counter-trend scalp requiring precise risk control and quick profit taking. The more robust edge is to sell rallies into confluence resistance where liquidity is better and invalidation is tighter.

15. Time-of-day considerations

• Asia open could facilitate the relief bounce as shorts take profit. European/US sessions often fade those bounces on trend days. Expect the sell window to be optimal within the next 6–14 hours if 3.33–3.40k is tagged.

Forecast summary (24h)

• Path: Bounce to 3.33–3.40k → rejection → 3.13–3.11k test → 3.05k probe; tail risk to 3.00k. Low probability squeeze above 3.50k would negate the short thesis short term.

Risk notes

• Elevated volatility can overshoot levels. Use stops. Keep size modest. If 3490–3510 is reclaimed on volume, step aside; the corrective rally could extend to 3580–3650 before bears reassert.