ETH: Sell the bounce into 3388–3395 as bearish trend resumes; targeting 3215 within 24 hours

Summary view (next 24h): Primary trend down on daily and hourly timeframes. Expect a bounce toward 3388–3395 to be sold, followed by a move back into 3250–3215. Bear case extension to 3190–3160 if momentum accelerates. Less likely short squeeze toward 3450–3480.

1. Price action and market structure

• Daily structure: Clear series of lower highs and lower lows since late October. Major breakdown on 2025-11-03/04 with a capitulation-type candle (low 3063), followed by a weak bounce and continued distribution. Current price 3325 is well below recent value areas (~3.9–4.2k), confirming bearish control.
• Intraday (H1) structure 2025-11-06: Lower high at 3454, dump to 3246, then a corrective rebound to ~3350–3349 and churn near 3325–3330. This is a classic bear-flag/descending channel: rallies get sold; lows get probed.
• Key levels observed today: Resistance 3349–3351 (rejection at 0.5 retrace of the 3246→3454 swing), 3374–3395 (0.618/0.382 confluence from multiple swings). Supports: 3290–3300 (intraday shelf), 3246 session low, 3215–3258 fib cluster, then 3190/3160 and 3063.

2. Moving averages (trend filters)

• Daily MAs (approx.): Price is decisively below the 20-DMA (~3.85–3.95k) and the 50-DMA (~4.2k). Bearish alignment and slope down. Any rallies into fast MAs on lower timeframes are likely sold.
• Hourly EMAs: 8 < 21 < 50 EMA with all sloping down. Price repeatedly rejects around the 21/50 EMA area (~3350–3390), consistent with shorting the bounce.

3. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): Low-to-mid 30s following the breakdown—bearish but not yet a strong reversal signal; could support a pause/bounce before continuation lower.
• Hourly RSI(14): Hovering around 40–45, having relieved oversold conditions from the 3246–3290 dip; momentum has room to roll over again on a rally to resistance.
• Stochastic RSI (H1): Recently cycled up from oversold into mid/high band on a weak price bounce—typical setup to reset and turn down at resistance.

4. MACD

• Daily MACD: Deeply negative with widening signal gap after the Nov 3–4 selloff. Histogram shows modest deceleration but still below zero—momentum remains bearish; any bounce likely corrective.
• Hourly MACD: Curling from below zero but flattening as price stalls under 3350–3390; likely to roll back down on a push into that supply.

5. Bollinger Bands

• Daily BB: Price is walking the lower band after a volatility expansion. That typically favors trend continuation after shallow mean-reversion rallies. Middle band (20SMA) far overhead.
• Hourly BB: Lower-band tags around 3246/3290 were followed by a reversion to mid-band near 3330–3350. Upper band sits near ~3385–3395; expect sellers to defend near that band/mean area.

6. Fibonacci mapping (multiple anchors for confluence)

• Intraday downswing 3454 → 3246: 0.382 = ~3325.5 (current), 0.5 = ~3350 (rejected intraday), 0.618 = ~3374.5. This creates a 3350–3375 sell zone.
• Larger swing 4158 (10/26 high) → 3063 (11/4 low): 0.382 ≈ 3491, 0.5 ≈ 3611, 0.618 ≈ 3731. Price failing below the shallow 0.382 confirms bears in control; rallies into 3450–3490 should be sold if reached.
• Micro swing supports from 3063→3454: 0.382 ≈ 3212, 0.5 ≈ 3258. Strong confluence 3212–3258 below—primary downside target area.

7. Ichimoku (trend + structure)

• Daily: Price below Kumo; Tenkan below Kijun; Lagging span below price—full bearish stack. No near-term bullish Kumo twist.
• Hourly: Price and lagging span below cloud; Kijun near ~3390 acts as dynamic resistance; rejection expected on tests of 3385–3395.

8. ADX / trend strength

• Daily ADX rising (>25 est.) with -DI above +DI—confirms a strong bearish trend. Trend-following shorts remain favored on rallies.
• Hourly ADX moderate; enough trend to expect continuation after corrective bounces.

9. Volume/OBV/VWAP

• Volume: 11/04’s selloff was high/very high—capitulation-like but without a subsequent strong reversal day. Today’s heavy sell volume on the 05:00/15:00 hrs sustained pressure.
• OBV (qualitative): Lower highs, lower lows—distribution persists.
• Session VWAP (H1, approximate): Near 3340–3350 earlier; price oscillates just below, indicating sellers defend VWAP. Expect rejection on return to VWAP/upper band.

10. Volatility and ATR

• Daily ATR has expanded sharply (300–400+). Within 24h, range expansion supports a test of the 3250–3215 zone if a bounce fails at 3388–3395. A tail-risk extension to sub-3200 is possible if momentum accelerates.

11. Candles and patterns

• Daily: Post-breakdown candles lack strong bullish reversal signatures; more like consolidation under resistance.
• Hourly: 05:00 bearish engulfing from 3452 to 3385 and subsequent rejections near 3350 underline supply overhead. Current basing under resistance fits a bear-flag.

12. Elliott structure (heuristic)

• Impulsive wave down into 3063 (wave 3), corrective bounce into mid-3400s (wave 4-ish), with an emerging final push lower (wave 5) that could target 3215–3160 first, then 3090–3060 on extension. The next 24h likely reflects early portions of that final push, barring a squeeze.

13. Probability map (next 24h)

• Base case (60%): Bounce into 3388–3395 sells off → drift lower to 3258–3215. Close near 3230–3280.
• Bull squeeze (25%): Pop toward 3450–3480 (stop zones for shorts) before rolling over; would require sustained trade above ~3395/3405.
• Bear extension (15%): Loss of 3215 leads to 3190/3160; if illiquidity kicks in, a spike to 3120–3065 is possible but less likely within 24h.

14. Trade plan logic (why Sell and where)

• Confluence to sell: 3350–3395 region holds multiple resistances—H1 BB upper band, VWAP zone, Ichimoku Kijun, 0.5–0.618 of today’s downswing, prior intraday supply, and EMA cluster. Trend is down across TFs; momentum remains negative.
• Optimal entry: Patience to sell a fade into 3388–3395 improves risk/reward and avoids shorting the hole. If price doesn’t bounce, an alternative is breakdown sells below 3290 (discretionary), but the optimal remains “sell the pop.”
• Risk control (not part of the schema but essential): Invalidate above 3465–3485 (over/through the morning spike and larger 0.382 zone), where structure turns into a squeeze. Recommended stop for plan: ~3475.
• Take-profit logic: First TP band at 3258/3250 (fib 0.5 and local shelf), second at 3215 (fib confluence). We set the close price at 3215 to capture the full measured leg while recognizing ATR.

15. What would flip me bullish short-term?

• Hourly close above ~3405–3415 followed by basing above 3450 with rising OBV and MACD bull cross on H1. Then a 3480 reclaim could open 3490–3610 retrace. Not the base case now.

Bottom line

• The dominant trend is bearish. Indicators and structure align for a “sell the bounce” setup into 3388–3395 with a tactical target at 3215 over the next 24 hours. Maintain discipline on stops due to high volatility.