ETH at the Edge: Fading the 3.46k–3.50k Wall After a Textbook Relief Rally

Snapshot and context

• Instrument: Ethereum (ETH/USD)
• Timestamp (UTC): 2025-11-07 22:01
• Current price: 3466.58
• Day’s intraday (Nov 7) range: 3198.10 → 3466.58; close at high, strong momentum into session end
• Market backdrop from the chart: persistent multi-week downtrend from late August highs (~4.9–5.0k) into a violent capitulation low on Nov 4 (~3063), followed by a sharp relief rally into today’s close

Multi-timeframe market structure

1. Daily trend and structure

• Primary trend: Down. Sequence of lower highs and lower lows from Aug 24 high (4953.7) → Sep 25 breakdown (to 3868) → Oct 10 crash day low (3460 intraday) → Nov 4 capitulation low (3063). Price remains below the 200D and 50D moving averages (inferred from price history, both likely 3.9–4.3k), so the higher-timeframe bias is still bearish.
• Current daily candle (Nov 7, partial but near close): Large green body closing at the high after a deep intraday dip (3198 → 3466), indicative of aggressive dip buying. Not an engulfing of the Nov 3–4 selloff range, but a decisive bullish response from the 3.2–3.3k demand zone.
• Market structure inflection: The Nov 4 low (3063) sets a potential swing low. Today’s close still below prior daily swing-lows/opens in the 3.8–3.9k zone, so the rally is a relief within a broader downtrend unless 3.75–3.9k reclaims.

2. 4H/1H structure (derived from the hourly data provided)

• Intraday sequence today: HL at ~3200 (12:00 UTC hour), then higher highs into 3469 (20:00–21:00). A clear intraday uptrend channel formed from ~14:00 through the close; price ended at the channel’s upper boundary.
• Notable supply tests: 3440–3470 has been probed late session; sellers defended 3469 into close. Round number 3500 just overhead remains untested resistance.

Key price levels and confluences

• Immediate resistance cluster: 3460–3490 • 3460 is the Oct 10 capitulation low (role-reversal resistance; prior major pivot) now being retested from below. • 50% Fibonacci retracement of the Nov 3 high (3912.6) to Nov 4 low (3063.1) = 3487.5; current price sits just below this classic fade zone. • Psychological round number: 3500.
• Next resistance above: 3556 (R1 daily pivot calculated from today’s H/L/C), then 3572 (38.2% of the larger Oct 10 high → Nov 4 low), and 3588 (61.8% of Nov 3–Nov 4 swing). 3600 also a round number and prior day close (Nov 3 close 3602).
• Immediate support cluster: 3380–3400 • 38.2% Fibonacci of Nov 3–4 swing ≈ 3387 (already reclaimed intraday; likely retest zone). • Daily pivot P today ≈ 3377 (calculated), aligns with 3380 area.
• Deeper supports: 3330–3345 (intraday base, 1H demand), 3288 (S1 pivot), 3200–3220 (intraday low and strong buy reaction), 3060–3080 (capitulation low zone; far support).

Fibonacci mapping (detail)

• Swing A: Nov 3 high 3912.6 → Nov 4 low 3063.1 • 38.2%: 3387.1 (tagged/held) • 50%: 3487.9 (overhead; not convincingly broken) • 61.8%: 3588.7 (next resistance if 3500 breaks)
• Larger swing: Oct 10 rebound high 4395.6 → Nov 4 low 3063.1 • 38.2%: ~3572 • 50%: ~3729 • 61.8%: ~3886 This emphasizes a thick supply band 3550–3600 on any continuation.

Momentum indicators

• RSI (1H, estimated): High 60s to low 70s late session, consistent with an overbought intraday condition after a 8–9% rally off the 12:00 UTC trough. Expect mean reversion attempts within next 8–12 hours.
• RSI (Daily, qualitative): Recovering from oversold post-Nov 4 washout; likely mid-40s to low-50s area now—neutral/bearish regime on daily but improving.
• MACD (1H): Positive with widening histogram through the NY afternoon; last two hours show momentum continuation but flattening into close—ripe for a shallow pullback/consolidation.
• MACD (Daily): Still below zero but histogram contraction likely since the 3063 low—early-stage bullish momentum improvement but not a confirmed daily bull trend.
• Stochastic (1H): In overbought band; typical for a trend day. Elevated risk of a pullback to the mid-band/20EMA on 1H.
• ADX (1H, qualitative): Rising, likely >25, confirming a strong intraday trend. But late-session ADX inflection often precedes a rest.

Volatility and range

• Intraday expansion: BB width expanded significantly after a midday squeeze; price rode the upper Bollinger band from ~18:00–21:00.
• Daily ATR(14) (approx.): 230–260 pts (6–7% of price) given recent extreme days (e.g., Nov 4 range ~590 pts). Expect a 24h envelope around ±200–300 points centered on VWAP.
• Keltner Channels (1H): Price extended to outer KC during the late-session push, indicating stretched intraday condition and increased odds of reversion to the mean (20EMA/centerline) around 3335–3360 on any pullback.

Volume and participation

• Today’s intraday volume swelled markedly 18:00–21:00 UTC, confirming the breakout leg.
• OBV (qualitative, 1H): Rising; confirms accumulation during the breakout.
• However, closing at the top tick with thin last-minute prints can invite first-rotation sellers on the next session.

VWAP and Anchored VWAP

• Session VWAP (1H, est.): ~3350–3365. Price closed ~3% above VWAP, indicating short-term extension.
• Anchored VWAP from the Nov 4 low (3063): likely in the 3300–3350 band after two days of trade. Current price above AVWAP supports the relief rally, but distance to AVWAP suggests pullback probability in the next 24h.

Ichimoku (1H)

• Price cleared the cloud post-14:00 UTC and held above it. Conversion line > Base line; Lagging Span above price. Bullish intraday configuration. However, by late session price-to-conversion distance is stretched, typical pre-consolidation signature.

Pivots (Classic, based on today’s H/L/C)

• Pivot P ≈ 3377.1
• R1 ≈ 3556.1
• S1 ≈ 3287.6
• R2 ≈ 3645.6
• S2 ≈ 3108.6 Confluence: P ≈ 3377 aligns with 38.2% retrace (3387). R1 3556 is near the larger 3572/3589 fib confluence overhead.

Candles and patterns

• Daily: Strong bullish candle closing at the high (near Marubozu). Within context of a larger downtrend, this is a relief rally day. Not an engulfing of the prior multi-day range, so caution on follow-through.
• 1H: A bull flag consolidation 14:00–17:00 broke 17:00–18:00 and trended to close. Into the close, minor momentum loss suggests a pause.
• Supply/demand flip: Oct 10 crash-day low ~3460 now acts as resistance; today’s close exactly in that zone. Expect two-sided trade here.

Elliott Wave (tactical, 1H)

• From 12:00 UTC low (~3199) a 5-wave impulse likely completed into 3468: • Wave 1 to ~3345, Wave 2 to ~3200, Wave 3 extended to ~3469, Wave 4 shallow to ~3420, Wave 5 marginal new high ~3468–3469.
• If correct, next is an ABC corrective leg likely toward the 0.382–0.5 retrace of the last impulse: roughly 3385–3420 (A), then bounce (B), then possibly retest 3335–3360 (C), before any new leg up.

Order flow/imbalance observations

• Fair Value Gap (1H) created on the 17:00–18:00 thrust leaves a low-volume pocket roughly 3360–3390. High probability magnet if momentum cools.

Risk/reward and scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55–60%): Mean-reverting pullback from 3460–3490 resistance into 3380–3400 (first magnet: pivot/38.2%/VWAP cluster), possibly wicking 3335–3360 to refill the FVG, then chop.
• Bull extension (25–30%): Momentum continuation through 3490–3500 toward 3550–3580 (R1 + 38.2/61.8 fib cluster). Requires sustained bid and volume; would likely occur if weekend liquidity squeezes shorts.
• Bear surprise (10–15%): Deep retrace to 3285–3295 (S1) or even 3200 if risk sentiment deteriorates quickly. Less likely without a trigger but possible given elevated ATR.

Strategy synthesis and confluence for decision

• Overbought 1H momentum at a dense confluence: 3460 role-reversal, 50% swing retrace at ~3488, round 3500 just above, and price hugging upper Bollinger/Keltner. These typically favor a tactical fade.
• Higher timeframe downtrend remains intact; rallies into resistance are sell opportunities until daily structure flips (reclaiming 3.75–3.90k and holding).
• Volume confirms the rally, so expect dip buyers on first test of 3380–3400; thus profit targets should be conservative initially.

Execution plan (short setup)

• Entry: Prefer a limit sell in the 3485–3495 zone (optimal ~3488) where the 50% fib of Nov 3–4 aligns with psychological 3500 and today’s supply cap.
• Take-profit (primary): 3388 (38.2% retrace + daily pivot area + prior balance), a 100-pt pullback that often materializes within 24h post-trend-day extensions.
• Invalidation (stop, for risk management, not part of requested fields): Above 3556 (R1) or more conservatively above 3588 (61.8% of Nov 3–4), depending on risk tolerance. A break-and-hold over 3500–3520 that accelerates toward 3550 would warn of a squeeze to 3570–3590.
• Alternate plan: If price fails to tag 3485–3495 and instead rolls under 3440 with momentum, a market/stop entry short on a rebound to 3460 with same targets remains valid.

What would flip me bullish in the next 24h?

• A decisive break and 1H close above 3500–3520 followed by acceptance (VWAP support shifting upward) would open 3550–3580. In that case, standing aside on shorts and reassessing for a potential long on a 3500 retest would be prudent. As of now, confluence favors the short fade first.

Bottom line

• The setup is a tactical short against a multi-factor resistance confluence (role-reversal 3460, 50% fib 3488, round 3500, upper bands), with a mean-reversion target into 3380–3400 (pivot/38.2%). Probability-weighted expectation for the next 24 hours: a pullback first, then either range or a second attempt higher.

Decision: SELL (Short) with an optimal entry at 3488 and primary target 3388.

Forecasted 24h range: 3335–3520, with a central tendency around 3380–3460.