Ethereum Price Analysis Powered by AI

ETH at the Cliff: 23.6% Fib Rejection Sets Up a Sell-the-Rip into 3.34k

Executive Summary ETH is consolidating just above 3.40k after a violent early-November selloff, failing at the first Fibonacci retracement (23.6%) of the Oct 2 high → Nov 4 low. Multi-timeframe structure remains bearish (lower highs/lower lows), intraday momentum is weak, and price sits under key moving averages and VWAP. The highest-probability next-24h path is “sell-the-rip”: fade bounces into 3.45k–3.47k toward a re-test of 3.36k with risk of an extension to ~3.31k.

Step-by-Step Technical Deep Dive

Market Structure and Price Action

Higher-timeframe context (Daily):
- Aug top near 4.95k → persistent downtrend with lower highs since late August; sharp leg down Oct 10 and another capitulation Nov 3–4 (low ~3,063). The rebound into Nov 7 stalled below 3.50k.
- Structure: lower highs (Oct 26 ~4,158 → Oct 31 ~3,847 → Nov 7 ~3,472 intraday) and lower lows (Nov 4 ~3,063). Trend remains down until >3,790–3,960 is reclaimed (50%–61.8% retrace of Oct 2 high → Nov 4 low).
Intraday (Hourly, 24h):
- Range bound with a mild descending bias: H ~3,475 (04:00), L ~3,359 (16:00). Successive lower intraday highs (3,474 → 3,464 → 3,463 → 3,462) form a descending trendline. Horizontal demand around 3,36k held once, but bounces are muted.
- Today’s price action spent most of the session below intraday VWAP and below yesterday’s settlement cluster (3,43–3,45k), indicating sellers in control on rallies.

Key Levels (Multiple Methods)

Horizontal S/R (derived from recent daily/hourly extremes):
- Resistance: 3,450–3,475 (hourly supply and prior intraday highs), 3,515–3,540 (R1 pivot zone), 3,600–3,620 (daily 38.2% retrace shelf), 3,790–3,960 (major daily fib + breakdown shelf).
- Support: 3,399–3,406 (current close area), 3,368 (classic pivot P from Nov 7), 3,359 (today’s intraday low), 3,312–3,292 (Nov 6 close/Nov 4 close), 3,245–3,196 (Nov 6/Nov 7 intraday lows), 3,063 (Nov 4 extreme low).
Classic floor pivots (based on Nov 7 H/L/C: H 3,471.8, L 3,195.9, C 3,435.3):
- P ≈ 3,368 (price oscillated around/just above it), R1 ≈ 3,540, S1 ≈ 3,264, R2 ≈ 3,644, S2 ≈ 3,092.
Fibonacci mapping:
- Major swing (Oct 2 H 4,517.7 → Nov 4 L 3,063.1): 23.6% = ~3,406 (current price), 38.2% = ~3,619, 50% = ~3,790, 61.8% = ~3,961. ETH rejected at the first fib band—a classic sign of a weak bounce within a dominant downtrend.
- Local swing (Nov 4 L 3,063 → Nov 7 H 3,472): pullback held above 38.2% (~3,316), with intraday tests near 23.6% (~3,376–3,400). That says the micro-bounce structure is intact, but it’s running into the macro 23.6% cap.
Liquidity pools:
- Above: 3,450–3,475 (cluster of recent highs/stops).
- Below: 3,368/3,359 (session floor), then 3,312–3,292. A clean sweep under 3,36k can accelerate toward 3,31k.

Trend and Moving Averages

Daily trend filters:
- Price below 20/50/200-day moving averages (directionally down). Quick estimate: 14-day SMA ~3,720; price is materially below—bearish regime.
- Implication: rallies into declining MAs are sell zones until proven otherwise.
Hourly MAs:
- Price below 200-hour EMA and hugging/below 20/50-hour MAs; this underlines weak intraday momentum and validates a “fade rips” approach.

Momentum and Oscillators

RSI (Daily): likely sub-50 after the failed bounce—weak but not oversold. That supports more consolidation to down drift rather than a squeeze higher.
RSI (Hourly): oscillating mid-40s to low-50s, consistent with range-with-down-bias. No bullish divergence at today’s lows, keeping downside risk live.
MACD:
- Daily: below zero line; histogram narrowed on the bounce but no convincing daily bull cross.
- Hourly: minor whipsaws, but most crosses fail near zero—sign of trendless-to-bearish intraday tape.
Stochastics (Hourly): quickly rotating; any overbought on tests of 3,45–3,47k tends to mark shortable spots.

Volatility and Bands

ATR (14D) elevated from crash week but compressing over the last 3–4 sessions—range contraction following expansion. Implies a directional move is brewing after this coil; with trend down, odds favor a downside break unless bulls reclaim 3,45–3,47k with authority.
Bollinger Bands (Daily): price below the middle band; lower band not far beneath. Tendency is to mean-revert intraday and re-test lower band on trend days.
Keltner/Donchian (Hourly): price near lower channels for much of the day; bounces to mid-channel keep failing—a hallmark of sell-the-rip markets.

Volume and Flow

Volume profile last two weeks: heavy on sell days (Nov 3–4), lighter on bounce days—indicative of a counter-trend rally.
OBV/A/D: modest uptick off the low, stalling the past two sessions—no confirmation of accumulation.
Intraday prints show larger volume on down candles during NY/EU overlap, suggesting supply still active.

Ichimoku (Signal Layering)

Daily: price below Kumo; Tenkan < Kijun; Span A < Span B—bearish stack. Kijun likely near 3.60–3.65k region—far above.
Hourly: price below cloud; repeated rejections on cloud edges align with the 3.45–3.47k supply zone.

Pattern Diagnostics

Descending triangle on the hourly: falling tops from ~3,474 against a relatively flat base 3,36k. Breakdown targets measure to 3,31–3,32k initially, aligning with prior closes (3,312/3,292).
Candles (Daily): Nov 6 showed a long lower wick (hammer-like), Nov 7 up day, Nov 8 doji/spinning top near the 23.6% fib—indecision at first resistance typically resolves with continuation in the prior trend (down) unless reclaimed fast.
Elliott perspective (tentative): impulsive 5 down into Nov 4, a-b-c corrective bounce likely incomplete; current chop looks like b-wave drift with risk of a c-up toward ~3,50–3,55k if and only if 3,47k is cleared. Base case remains the b-wave failing and rolling over first.

VWAP and Mean-Reversion

Intraday VWAP (today) hovered above last prints; ETH spent most time below VWAP—another sign to sell bounces back to VWAP/supply.
Weekly VWAP (qualitative): likely above spot given the heavy early-week losses; acts as a cap.

Confluence Summary (Bearish Bias)

Under all key daily MAs and below daily Kumo.
Rejection at 23.6% fib of the major downswing (~3,406 area) with repeated failure at 3,45–3,47k.
Hourly descending triangle with a flat base near 3,36k.
VWAP overhang and soft OBV/MACD confirmation.
Range contraction favors a directional break; the dominant trend is down.

Next 24 Hours – Probabilistic Path

Base Case (55%): Sell-the-rip. Price pops toward 3,45–3,47k (stop runs/liquidity), fails, then rolls toward 3,36k and extends to 3,33–3,34k. Range expectation: 3,31k–3,47k with close bias near 3,34–3,38k.
Bullish Alt (35%): Clean reclaim of 3,455–3,475, hourly close above descending trendline and VWAP, targeting 3,495–3,520. Failure likely below 3,540 (R1/pocket of supply).
Tail Risk (10%): Sharp risk-off break through 3,36k base, straight to 3,31k, slippery slope to 3,29k/3,26k if liquidity thins.

Trade Plan (Short-Term; next 24h focus)

Bias: Sell (Short the bounce).
Optimal Entry: Limit short near 3,450 (confluence of hourly supply, underside of intraday MAs, and just below the 3,455–3,475 stop pocket). If a stronger wick, 3,462–3,468 is still valid; for precision, 3,450 is the defined trigger.
Target (TP): 3,340 (first measured move from triangle and near prior micro-demand). Partials at 3,368/3,359 make sense intraday; full exit 3,340 in 24h window.
Risk Management (suggested, not part of output fields): Protective stop 3,512 (above supply shelf and outside noise), yielding favorable R:R. If 3,36k breaks swiftly, consider trail to 3,355 then 3,345 to lock profits.

Why not Long here?

Longs are counter-trend unless 3,475 is converted to support with sustained acceptance above VWAP. Without that, bounces are statistically more likely to fail given the market’s lower-high rhythm and resistance layers overhead.

Bottom Line ETH is capped by a dense 3,45–3,47k supply and the 23.6% major fib. The path of least resistance over the next 24 hours is a fade of strength into that zone, aiming for 3,34k with risk of a 3,31k extension if 3,36k snaps.