ETH poised for breakout-retest-continue: Buy the dip toward 3510, aim for 3655 within 24 hours

Executive summary and 24h path expectation

• Base case (60%): After today’s strong intraday advance, ETH consolidates/pulls back toward 3505–3525 to retest breakout support, then rotates higher to probe 3625–3665. Net positive close versus current price.
• Alt case – momentum continuation (25%): If 3595–3600 breaks early with rising volume, momentum extends directly to 3645–3690 before a late pullback to ~3605–3620.
• Risk case – deeper retrace (15%): Failure to hold 3510–3485 opens a dip into 3450–3469 (R1 from pivots / supply-turn-demand). Buyers likely defend the 3430–3450 shelf; below 3420 undermines the bounce thesis.

Trend, structure, and key levels (multi-timeframe)

• Daily structure: A sharp selloff bottomed Nov 4 (intraday ~3063), followed by a multi-day base between ~3300–3450 and a fresh breakout today above 3520–3540. Price is still below higher-timeframe MAs, so the primary daily trend remains corrective/bearish, but the short-term impulse has turned up.
• Intraday (1h): Clean impulsive up-leg from ~3367 to ~3595, with orderly consolidations and higher lows. Late-day candles showed smaller bodies near 3590 resistance, signaling a pause rather than reversal. Expect mean reversion toward intraday supports before next push.
• Key resistance: 3595–3605 (today’s R3 pivot confluence/round number), 3645–3665 (prior micro swing/38–50% retrace clusters), 3725–3750, and 3800–3840 (overhead supply zone).
• Key support: 3545–3520 (breakout-retest), 3510–3485 (intraday demand, fib/EMA confluence), 3450–3469 (prior cap now potential floor), 3400 (psych), 3360–3375 (session low shelf).

Momentum and oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): Likely mid-40s to low-50s after the rebound (improving from oversold). This supports room higher without being overbought on the daily.
• 1h RSI(14): High 60s/low 70s into the close, consistent with a short-term overbought condition at resistance. Expect a cooldown to mid-40s/50s on a healthy pullback to 3510–3525.
• MACD (daily): Below zero but histogram is contracting toward a bullish cross; momentum is inflecting positively. On 1h, MACD is positive and flattening—typical of a pause before either continuation or a modest retrace.

Moving averages and trend filters

• 5D SMA ≈ 3430: Price above—short-term bullish.
• 10D SMA ≈ 3568: Price modestly above—fresh positive inflection right at the SMA, supportive of a continuation attempt.
• 20D SMA ≈ 3754: Price below—macro corrective regime persists; rallies likely meet resistance into mid-3700s on this horizon.
• 1h EMAs (8/21): Price above both; 8>21 alignment favors buy-the-dip setups. A pullback to the 21-EMA region aligns near 3510–3530.

Bollinger Bands

• Daily BB (20,2): Midline ~3754, lower band estimated around high-2900s/low-3000s due to recent vol spike. Price is below midline with room to mean-revert upward. On 1h, price recently tagged upper band near 3590, increasing odds of a band mean reversion to ~3510–3530 before the next expansion.

Fibonacci confluences

• Nov 4 low (3063) → Nov 2/Nov 1 swing close/high area (~3911):
  • 38.2% ≈ 3387 (cleared), 50% ≈ 3487 (retested), 61.8% ≈ 3587—today’s high/close is right under this key fib, explaining the stall. A minor pullback here is normal.
• Today’s impulse (3367 → 3595 = 228):
  • 38.2% pullback ≈ 3508, 50% ≈ 3481. This fits the 3505–3525 base-case buy zone and deeper 3480 backup support.

Classical pivots (derived from Nov 8 H/L/C)

• P ≈ 3413; R1 ≈ 3469; R2 ≈ 3538; R3 ≈ 3594.
• Price effectively tagged R3 (3595), typically inviting a reaction lower toward R2 (3538) or R1 (3469) before trend continuation. This underpins the preferred buy-the-dip plan.

Price action and candles

• Today’s session produced a strong green body with reduced upper wick into the 3590s, then narrow-range candles—classic momentum pause at resistance. No decisive bearish reversal pattern printed into the close on the hourly; instead, a likely consolidation suggests buyers remain in control on dips.

Ichimoku (directional read)

• Daily: Price likely below cloud; tenkan turning up and price reclaiming above tenkan is constructive, but kijun/cloud overhead remains. This typically yields rallies to the kijun/first cloud underside before fresh decisions—aligns with 3645–3750 resistance staircase.
• 1h: Price above cloud, bullish stack; a flat kijun below near 3510–3530 often acts as a magnet during pauses.

ATR and volatility regime

• Daily ATR expanded materially after the drop; current daily ranges of ~200–350 are plausible. For the next 24h, expected range 3480–3665 is consistent with recent realized volatility.

Volume and order-flow cues

• Rising intraday volume in the 18:00–21:00 window during the leg from ~3515 to ~3595 indicates genuine demand, not a thin air squeeze. The stall near 3590s came with stabilizing volume, a constructive consolidation rather than aggressive distribution.

Support/resistance map and liquidity

• Liquidity pools/round numbers: 3400 (held), 3500/3520 (newly established shelf), 3600 (resting offers; stops above 3600/3610 could fuel a quick run to 3645–3665), 3700–3725 (next supply pocket).
• Expect a stop-hunt/mean-reversion dip into 3510–3525 that refuels a 3600+ break attempt.

Pattern synthesis

• Post-crash basing structure with a successful range breakout today (above 3520–3540). Price paused exactly at 61.8% retrace and R3. The composite read across fibs, pivots, and intraday EMAs favors a shallow pullback before trend continuation—canonical breakout-retest-continue sequence.

Risk management and trade design (24h)

• Bias: Buy-the-dip within 3505–3525 with invalidation below 3450–3469 cluster.
• Reward: First objective 3625–3655 (fill into resistance), stretch 3680–3690 if momentum persists.
• R:R: With a 3510 entry, a protective stop near 3458 yields ~52 points risk; a 3655 target offers ~145 points reward (~2.8:1), acceptable for a 24h swing.

What would invalidate

• A decisive rejection from 3595 followed by loss of 3510–3485 without immediate reclaim. A daily close back below 3450 would shift the 24–48h bias back to sell-the-rip toward 3400/3365.

24-hour forecast

• Probable path: Drift down to 3505–3525 early session, then rotation up to 3625–3665. Net +1.5% to +2.5% from current into the session high, with a close near 3605–3635 if buyers prevail.

Bottom line

• Short-term momentum has flipped bullish, but price is pausing at a textbook resistance cluster (R3/61.8%). The higher-odds play is to buy the retest of 3510–3525 with targets into 3650±. A direct breakout through 3600 without the dip is possible but offers poorer R:R; if that occurs, trail aggressively on a momentum entry.