ETH: Short the Pop Below 3.6k — Neckline at 3,510 Is the Pivot for the Next 24 Hours

Executive summary for the next 24 hours

• Bias: Mildly bearish with risk of a range continuation. Expect a retest of 3,512 (neckline) and potential extension toward 3,470–3,445 if neckline breaks on volume.
• Optimal action: Fade strength into the 3,575–3,600 supply with a tight, defined risk; take profit into 3,470–3,445 demand. Alternate: momentum short on a clean break and retest of 3,510.

Price structure and market context

• Higher time frame (Daily): ETH is in a dominant downtrend from September highs (~4,7k) with a sharp capitulation Nov 4 (low ~3,063; close ~3,293) followed by a relief bounce to 3,648 (today’s intraday high). Price is currently 3,538, below key daily moving averages and below the prior value area. The bounce is corrective until proven otherwise.
• Medium/Intraday (H1): Clear sequence of lower highs today (3,648 → 3,630 → 3,582) with a pivotal intraday higher low around 3,512 that’s been repeatedly probed. This builds a potential head-and-shoulders (H&S) with neckline ≈3,512; measured move points to ~3,375 if it breaks decisively.
• Key levels
  • Resistance: 3,575–3,600 (intraday supply cluster, prior rejection zone), 3,645–3,650 (today’s high), 3,680 (next extension), 3,750–3,800 (daily mid/mean reversion zone).
  • Support: 3,512 (neckline; 0.382 Fib of 3,292→3,648), 3,470 (0.50 Fib), 3,428–3,430 (0.618 Fib; 11/7-11/8 value), 3,400 round, 3,358–3,360 (11/8 low), 3,292 (swing low).

Volume and order flow

• Daily: Post-crash, rebound volumes faded versus the selloff, consistent with a corrective leg. The 11/10 session shows heavier selling during the NY afternoon (20:00–21:00 UTC) near 3,580, implying supply above 3,560–3,600.
• Intraday: Notable sell pressure on the 20:00–21:00 UTC bars with higher volume and lower closes; buyers defended 3,512 once, but subsequent bounces are getting shallower.

Moving averages and trend indicators

• 20-day SMA ≈ 3,754 (approximate from last 20 closes). Price at 3,538 is ~5.7% below, confirming bearish mean-reversion pressure overhead.
• 50-day SMA (approx): trending downward, well above price (low-4k area), reinforcing a primary downtrend.
• 200-day SMA (approx): likely above spot or marginally above mid-3.6k; price is at/below this long-term mean, indicating weak broader structure.
• Conclusion: Below all key MAs used by swing participants; rallies into 3,575–3,650 are likely sold.

Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI: Recovered off capitulation lows but likely mid-40s; still below the 50 neutral line. That favors sell-the-rip rather than chase upside.
• H1 RSI: Bearish divergence from the 00:00–02:00 highs to the 19:00–20:00 lower highs; rolled back to mid-40s/low-40s. Momentum is fading on bounces.
• Stochastics (H1): Crossed down from overbought on the 3,580 rejection, consistent with a drift back to the neckline zone.

MACD

• Daily MACD: Negative but histogram contracting after the Nov 4 low; bounce is losing steam near resistance without a bullish cross.
• H1 MACD: Bearish cross post-3,648; attempts to turn back up failed under the signal line near 3,575–3,580. This supports a short-the-pop setup.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• Daily BB: Price oscillates between the middle band (near 3,75k) and lower band (low-3.3k). Trading below the mid-band suggests reversion moves meet resistance before midline.
• H1 BB: Squeeze expanded lower from 3,64k; bands now slightly widening with price riding the lower/middle band—room to test 3,51k and, on break, expand to 3,47k.
• ATR: Daily ATR remains elevated post-crash (~180–250 range points). A 24h move covering 3,650→3,470 (≈180) fits current realized vol.

Ichimoku (directional cloud)

• Daily: Price below cloud and below Kijun (likely ~3,9k) with Tenkan likely near 3,6–3,7k. Sub-Tenkan trade reflects persistent bearish impulse. Chikou under price—no bullish confirmation.
• H1: Price below cloud with flat Kijun around 3,57–3,58k acting as magnet/resistance; repeated rejections sync with 3,575–3,600 supply.

Fibonacci and confluence

• Swing 3,292→3,648
  • 38.2%: 3,512 (active, intraday neckline; defended once)
  • 50%: 3,470 (first downside TP and strong confluence)
  • 61.8%: 3,428 (secondary target if momentum accelerates)
• Confluence: 3,575–3,600 (H1 cloud/Kijun, prior HVN and rejection zone) aligns as optimal short entry.

Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• From 3,292, structure appears as an A-B-C corrective advance into 3,648 with C failing to extend impulsively. Current intraday lower highs imply a (x) connector or start of a new downward sequence. A break of 3,512 validates a downside wave toward 3,47k/3,43k.

Market profile / VPVR (conceptual)

• Recent high-volume node (~3,58–3,60k) where sellers emerged; low-volume pocket (~3,46–3,47k). Expect price to traverse quickly once 3,51k gives way, then slow near 3,47k as bids appear.

Pattern diagnostics

• Head & Shoulders (H1):
  • Left shoulder ~3,62k, Head ~3,648, Right shoulder ~3,58k, Neckline ~3,512.
  • Measured move: ~136 pts → 3,376 target if breakdown is impulsive. For a 24h horizon, initial 3,47k is the conservative objective; stretch target 3,43k–3,40k if momentum persists.
• Bear flag possibility: The 11/4–11/10 structure can be read as a rising corrective channel. Today’s loss of the intraday trendline and LH sequence supports a flag breakdown scenario.

Risk management and trade construction

• Primary plan: Sell the pop into 3,575–3,600. This places the entry in the supply pocket and near intraday Kijun/MA confluences.
• Stop (not requested but critical): Above 3,655–3,665 (above today’s high 3,648 and supply continuation). Risk ≈75–90 pts depending on fill.
• Take profit: 3,470 (0.50 Fib and local demand) for a 1.3–1.6R. Secondary TP 3,428–3,445 if velocity increases; scale if achieved quickly.
• Alternate momentum entry: Break-retest of 3,510 neckline; stop ~3,545; TP 3,470/3,430.

Scenario analysis (24h)

• Bearish continuation (60%): Failures below 3,580 lead to a retest and break of 3,512; price tags 3,470 with potential follow-through to 3,43k.
• Range hold (25%): 3,510 holds; chop 3,510–3,590 persists; fade edges remains optimal.
• Upside squeeze (15%): Quick reclaim >3,600 and acceptance above 3,650 invalidates the short; opens path to 3,680–3,750 where daily mean reversion resides.

Why Sell over Buy now

• Structural downtrend intact on daily with price below key MAs and below Ichimoku cloud; the bounce lacks volume expansion and is stalling beneath supply.
• Intraday momentum rolled over with sequential lower highs and a clear, well-defined risk area just overhead, improving expectancy for a mean-reversion short.
• Confluence of resistance (H1 Kijun/cloud, prior rejection, HVN) at the proposed entry with nearby invalidation.

Execution notes

• Use a limit order around 3,580 to improve entry; if price fails to bounce, consider a secondary plan to engage on a clean neckline break/retest at 3,510.
• If TP1 at 3,470 hits quickly, consider partials and trail for 3,430–3,400 only if momentum and volume expansion confirm.
• Avoid holding through a strong reclaim and acceptance above 3,650; that would flip intraday structure bullish and risk a squeeze toward 3,700+.

This is a probabilistic plan, not a guarantee. Size appropriately and adhere to stops given elevated post-crash volatility.