ETH: Sell the Rip to 3460 — Target 3375 as a Fresh Lower High Meets Intraday H&S

Executive summary (next 24h): Bias is mildly bearish. Expect ETH to trade in a 3350–3490 range with a tilt toward a liquidity sweep of 3375–3360 before any meaningful bounce. Best R/R is to sell a rally into 3455–3465 (confluence of hourly 0.618 retrace, intraday supply, and VWAP rejection). Target 3375. Invalidation if price reclaims and holds above 3515–3535.

1. Multi-timeframe market structure

• Monthly/Weekly context: Since the August distribution top near 4.95k (Aug 24–25 spike to ~4954 then failure), ETH entered a sequence of lower highs/lows. Two regime-change breaks: Sep 22 (4.45k→4.09k→4.20k dead-cat) and Oct 10 capitulation candle into 3.84k, followed by a reactive bounce to ~4.16k and then another lower low wave into the Nov 4 shock-down (low ~3063, close ~3293). The larger trend is down; bounces have been sold.
• Daily market structure: Post-Nov 4 low, ETH bounced to a local swing high 3656 (Nov 10), then rolled over to 3415 (Nov 11) and is now 3426. That’s a clean lower high vs 3656 and puts price below declining short/medium MAs. Structure: lower high (3656) → lower low risk if 3400 breaks. Key supports: 3400/3390, 3375/3360, 3330–3290. Resistances: 3450–3465, 3490–3535, 3560–3585.
• Intraday (hourly): Today’s tape shows a classic intraday topping sequence: morning impulse to 3586 (11/12 13:00 UTC), sharp rejection and roll to 3397, then a weak bounce to 3433 and fade—bearish lower-high/failed retest behavior.

2. Momentum and oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): Estimated mid-40s and falling; below 50 suggests bearish momentum regime. Not oversold—room to the downside before a reflexive bid.
• Hourly RSI: Bearish swing failure. After peaking during the 3586 push, RSI rolled over; subsequent bounce failed to recapture 50, consistent with bearish intraday control.
• MACD: Daily MACD is below zero and curling down post-Nov 10—bearish. Hourly MACD crossed down after the 13:00–14:00 reversal; histogram stays negative into the NY afternoon session—supports selling rips.
• Stochastic (hourly): Bearish cycle from overbought; still mid-range with room to cycle lower before becoming oversold.

3. Trend and moving averages

• Daily MAs: Price below the 20D SMA (~3.85k est), 50D (~4.1k est), and 200D (~4.0–4.2k est). The stack is bearish (price < 20D < 50D < 200D). Any upside likely stalls at the 3.53–3.65k supply before those MAs.
• Hourly MAs: Price is below the 50H and 200H, with a failed attempt to stay above during the mid-day rally. The 200H is likely near 3490–3520; sellers defended below it—bearish tilt.

4. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily: Elevated following Nov 4 shock; rough estimate 230–280. A 24h swing of 2–7% remains plausible. Our 24h range call (3350–3490) sits comfortably within ATR.
• Bollinger Bands (daily): Price is riding the lower half. 20D mid-band (~3850) is far overhead; lower band likely around 3350–3400. Drifting along the lower band favors a grind lower rather than a sharp reversal without a catalyst.

5. Volume and participation

• Distribution: Large red-volume spikes align with down legs (Nov 4: ~77B; Nov 10–11 heavy). Up days show comparatively weaker follow-through—classic distribution.
• OBV (qualitative): Rolling over since the Nov 10 high, consistent with net outflows on intraday rallies.
• Intraday prints: Sell volume clusters on the flush to 3397 and on the 17:00–19:00 UTC fades, indicating supply active into bounces.

6. VWAP, pivots, and mean reversion

• Session VWAP: Today’s push above VWAP into 3530–3560 failed; price is now below VWAP, and retests from under typically invite sellers. Expect supply to reappear in 3450–3470 if tapped.
• Classic pivots (computed from 11/11 H/L/C = 3644.5/3404.9/3415.3): P ≈ 3488.2, R1 ≈ 3571.6 (today’s high 3586 overshoot), S1 ≈ 3331.9. We rejected just above R1 and fell below P; next magnet is the space between P and S1. That keeps 3375–3360 in play short term.

7. Fibonacci confluence

• Swing Nov 4 low (3063) → Nov 10 high (3656): 0.5 = 3359, 0.618 = 3289. Price is oscillating just above the 0.5; a probe into the 3360 neighborhood is statistically likely before any larger bounce.
• Today’s intraday range (low 3381 at 16:00 → high 3586 at 13:00): 0.618 retrace from high is 3460. That aligns with a supply shelf and the underside of intraday moving averages—excellent short entry confluence.

8. Ichimoku (directional filter)

• Daily: Price below Kumo; Tenkan < Kijun; Chikou below price—bearish state.
• Hourly: Post-rally rejection pushed price back below the cloud; future Kumo likely twisting down. Signals favor selling resistance rather than buying dips until cloud is reclaimed and held.

9. Market profile and levels

• Visible volume-by-price (qualitative using today’s structure): High activity around 3420–3450 suggests a local value area. Acceptance below 3420 tends to rotate toward 3390/3375. Acceptance above 3460 opens 3490–3530, but requires strength not currently evident.

10. Price patterns and candles

• Intraday Head & Shoulders: Left shoulder 3530–3560 (11–12 UTC window), head 3586 (13:00), right shoulder ~3516 (15:00) with neckline 3435–3440. Breakdown produced 3397. Measured move from 3586–3440 ≈ 146 → objective ~3294. We may not realize the full target in 24h, but the pattern bias supports a 3375 test.
• Candles: Sharp upper wicks into 3560–3580 and a long red body into 3397—sellers control the close. The 17:00–19:00 bounces printed lower highs and were sold.

11. Risk framework and scenarios (24h)

• Base case (60%): Sell the 3455–3465 retest; drift to 3375–3360 as liquidity is taken below 3400; then range trade into the U.S. close/Asia handoff.
• Range case (30%): Chop 3400–3490 with failed breaks both sides; still favors fading strength until 3515–3535 reclaimed.
• Squeeze case (10%): If 3515–3535 is reclaimed and held on rising volume, squeeze to 3560–3585. This would invalidate the short idea for the session.

12. Trade plan synthesis

• Why short: Dominant downtrend on higher TFs, failed intraday breakout, hourly H&S, rejection at R1, price below VWAP/200H, oscillators bearish, and confluence short entry at 3460 (0.618 of today’s downswing) with nearby invalidation overhead.
• Optimal entry zone: 3455–3465. This is the most capital-efficient spot to engage shorts with asymmetric risk.
• Target: 3375 (front-runs 3360/3359 0.5 daily fib and prior demand; avoids the full S1 magnet at 3332 unless momentum accelerates).
• Invalidation (context only): Sustained acceptance above 3515–3535 or a strong reclaim of VWAP with volume.

Bottom line: Sell the rip into 3460 with a 24h target at 3375. Expect whips but bias remains for a probe lower before any durable bounce.