ETH Teeters Below the Neckline: Short the Bounce, Aim for 3,075 in 24 Hours

ETH snapshot and context

• Instrument: Ethereum (ETH/USD)
• Current price: 3,199.93
• Last 24h intraday action (UTC): Ramped to ~3,550 early, then persistent selloff down to 3,166; minor bounce to ~3,200 into the close of the latest hour.
• Liquidity/volatility: Elevated. Large-range bars, heavy sell volume on down-legs.

Multi-timeframe market structure

1. Higher timeframe (daily) trend

• Post-October shock, ETH printed lower highs and lower lows. Attempts to recover toward 4,100–4,300 failed; structure turned decisively bearish after the early-November bounce topped at 3,656 (Nov 10).
• The current drop places price below key late-Oct/early-Nov value areas (3,350–3,450). The path of least resistance is lower while below ~3,330–3,360.

2. Intermediate swing map (Nov 4 low to Nov 10 high)

• Swing low: 3,063 (Nov 4 intraday)
• Swing high: 3,656 (Nov 10)
• Classic Fibonacci retracements from that rally:
  • 38.2% ≈ 3,429
  • 50% ≈ 3,360
  • 61.8% ≈ 3,289
  • 78.6% ≈ 3,190
• ETH has sliced below 50% and 61.8%, and is now hovering around the 78.6% retracement (~3,190) — a typical “last-chance” bounce zone before a full retrace to the origin (~3,063).

3. Intraday (hourly) structure

• Sequence today: lower highs and lower lows from ~3,546 → 3,433 → 3,378 → 3,325 → 3,258 → 3,220 → 3,167.
• Current bounce is weak/overlapping; sellers defended every minor uptick. Market is below session VWAP and below all visible intraday moving averages.

Key levels (confluence-driven)

• Resistance
  • 3,330–3,360: Prior support (50% Fib, broken value area), now first resistance cluster.
  • 3,410–3,430: Neckline zone of the intraday/daily head-and-shoulders; also 38.2% Fib of the Nov 4–10 swing.
  • 3,540–3,560: Today’s intraday supply and yesterday’s R1 pivot neighborhood.
• Support
  • 3,190–3,205: 78.6% retracement confluence and current bounce zone.
  • 3,160–3,170: Today’s local low.
  • 3,110–3,120: Classic S3 pivot approximation; market profile low-volume pocket.
  • 3,060–3,080: Nov 4 capitulation low area; high-probability magnet if 3,160 gives way.

Technical tool-by-tool analysis

1. Moving averages (daily and 4h)

• Price is below short- and medium-term MAs (e.g., 20D and 50D approximations), indicating a bearish state. On 4h/hourly, fast MAs are sloping down, with bearish alignment (price < 9/20/50 EMA stacks). This configuration favors selling rallies rather than buying dips.

2. RSI (daily/hourly)

• Hourly: Likely oversold on the plunge with mild mean reversion, but no convincing bullish divergence versus the 3,166 low; momentum bounces are being sold.
• Daily: RSI has rolled under its midline, consistent with a bearish regime. An oversold tag can produce tactical bounces, but the dominant daily downtrend often persists.

3. MACD (daily/hourly)

• Daily: Bearish cross and expanding negative histogram after the failed 3,656 push. Momentum remains down.
• Hourly: Bearish; minor attempts at a bullish cross stall as price meets declining MAs.

4. Stochastics (hourly)

• Cycling up from oversold but below the mid-band; typical of bear-market bounces that fade into resistance.

5. ADX/DMI

• ADX rising with -DI > +DI as trend strength increases to the downside. This supports trend-continuation shorts on rallies.

6. Bollinger Bands (daily)

• Price pressing/near the lower band after a band expansion day. First tests can bounce, but expanded bands with trend suggest follow-through lower after shallow mean reversion.

7. Volume/OBV/CMF

• Distribution footprint: Large red-day volumes and heavy selling on breakdowns. OBV/CMF bias negative; rallies lack volume confirmation.

8. Ichimoku (daily)

• Price decisively below the Kumo; Tenkan and Kijun overhead. Thick cloud above implies meaningful resistance; bearish bias until price reclaims conversion/base lines (currently far higher than market).

9. VWAP

• Intraday anchored VWAP for today sits far above current (~3,45x–3,49x proxy), confirming persistent downside pressure. Price trading well below VWAP suggests sellers control.

10. Classical chart patterns

• Head-and-Shoulders (H&S) resolution: Left shoulder (~3,61x), head (3,656), right shoulder (~3,58x), neckline ~3,410–3,420. Break measured move: 3,656 − 3,410 ≈ 246 → Target ≈ 3,410 − 246 = 3,164. Price already tagged 3,166, validating pattern. Extensions often push to 3,110–3,080 next, sometimes all the way to the origin (~3,060).

11. Fibonacci extensions (intraday)

• From today’s last bounce (~3,246) to the 3,166 low, 1.272–1.618 extensions project 3,140–3,100 if the low breaks.

12. Market Profile / Volume Nodes

• Acceptance migrated lower from the 3,40x–3,45x HVN to the 3,19x–3,22x pocket. Below 3,19x, the profile thins toward 3,11x and 3,06x, enabling swift continuation if bids pull.

13. Pivot Points (derived from Nov 12 OHLC: H 3,586, L 3,374, C 3,413)

• P ≈ 3,457; R1 ≈ 3,542; S1 ≈ 3,329; R2 ≈ 3,670; S2 ≈ 3,245; S3 ≈ 3,117. Price broke S2 and probed toward S3; remains pinned below S1/S2, confirming strong bearish skew.

14. DeMark Sequential (qualitative)

• The intraday cascade likely completed or is completing a 9-count; expect 1–4 bar counter-trend pause, then another push lower if the trend is intact. Aligns with “sell-the-bounce” tactic.

15. Elliott Wave (qualitative)

• The drop from 3,656 looks impulsive (wave 3 dynamics on intraday). After a shallow wave 4 bounce into 3,26x–3,32x, a wave 5 extension could tag 3,10x–3,06x.

16. Harmonics

• Current price around the 78.6% retracement of the Nov 4–10 rally creates a potential PRZ; however, with trend/volume bearish, lower-probability reversal and higher-probability shallow bounce → continuation setup.

17. ATR/volatility

• 14D ATR expanded materially since early November. Today’s wide ranges suggest another 200–300+ point 24h swing is feasible, enabling tactical targeting down to ~3,075 on follow-through.

18. Heikin-Ashi read

• Dominant red bodies with lower wicks and minimal upper wicks during the selloff — momentum trend down. A single small-bodied candle may appear on the bounce, often preceding another push lower if resistance holds.

19. Candlestick cues

• Today produced multiple long-bodied bearish candles and a cascade below support — classic distribution-to-breakdown sequence. No decisive bullish reversal pattern printed yet.

20. Risk events and tape context

• After a swift intraday liquidation, a reflexive bounce is normal; but unless price reclaims and holds above ~3,330–3,360, sellers retain control. Thin weekend liquidity risk can exacerbate moves.

Synthesis and 24-hour outlook

• Trend/momentum: Bearish across daily and intraday.
• Positioning: Favor selling rallies into resistance rather than buying dips.
• Confluence: H&S measured move met (~3,166), but broader confluence still points lower (S3 ~3,117; swing origin ~3,063). Failed retests of 3,245–3,330 likely lead to 3,110–3,080, with overshoot risk to ~3,050.

Scenario probabilities (next 24h)

• Base case (55%): Relief bounce into 3,255–3,295 (stretch 3,325–3,330), sellers fade the move; breakdown resumes toward 3,120–3,080. Close sub-3,200.
• Bullish squeeze (25%): Stronger short-covering to 3,330–3,360 (prior support turned resistance). Unlikely to sustain above 3,360 without new catalyst.
• Bearish extension (20%): Quick loss of 3,160 → 3,110–3,080 test; momentum flush to 3,050–3,030 possible before a sharper bounce.

Trade plan (tactical, 24h)

• Bias: Sell the bounce.
• Optimal entry: Short on a retrace into 3,270–3,300 where supply and broken supports converge. This improves risk-reward vs. shorting into an oversold low.
• Target: 3,075 (front-run the 3,063 swing low).
• Invalidation (stop, not part of the requested fields but crucial): Above 3,355–3,360 (back above the 50% Fib/structure pivot), as that would threaten the immediate downside thesis.
• Approximate R:R at 3,275 entry: Risk ~80–90 pts to 3,355/3,360 vs. reward ~200 pts to 3,075 → ~2.2–2.5x.

Bottom line

• Dominant trend is down; momentum, volume, and structure favor continuation lower after a modest bounce. The optimal tactic is to sell a rally into the 3,27x–3,30x zone and target 3,075 over the next 24 hours, with risk managed above ~3,355–3,360.