ETH: Sell the Rip into 3,21–3,23k as Momentum Targets a 3,07k Retest

Step-by-step multi-method technical analysis on ETH (next 24 hours)

1. Market structure and trend context

• Higher time frame (Daily): Since late August’s 4.9k peak, ETH has been in a persistent downtrend, punctuated by sharp relief rallies and heavier-volume selloffs. The November sequence shows a bounce to 3.58–3.66k (Nov 9–10) followed by renewed distribution and a decisive breakdown to 3.23k (Nov 13) and now ~3.17k (Nov 14). The sequence of lower highs (3.66k → 3.57k → 3.41k → 3.23k) and lower lows confirms a bearish market structure.
• Intraday (Hourly): Today carved a clear series of lower highs around 3,235–3,250 and lower lows down to 3,131 with a late-session stabilization near 3,165–3,175. That is characteristic of a descending channel day with supply responding at every push into 3.21–3.25k.
• Key levels observed in order flow: • Resistance supply: 3,210–3,235 (multiple hourly rejections), 3,248–3,250 (session high cluster), then 3,298–3,305 (Fib 38.2% from the recent swing) and 3,360–3,365 (50% Fib / congestion). • Demand support: 3,150–3,135 (intraday shelf), 3,074–3,063 (today’s session low vs Nov 4 washout low), and the 3,000 psychological handle.

2. Moving averages (trend filters)

• Daily 20-SMA (approx): ~3,464 using the last 20 closes. Price at ~3,173 sits well below the 20-SMA → bearish.
• Daily 50-SMA (approx): materially above current price (likely ~3,9–4,1k) → confirms medium-term downtrend.
• Hourly 20/50-EMA: Price has traded below both for most of the session, with intraday reversion attempts capped near the 50-EMA around the 3,210–3,230 zone → intraday trend down. Interpretation: MA stack is decisively bearish across timeframes; rallies into MAs are sell opportunities until reclaimed.

3. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) (approx): low-to-mid 30s after consecutive down days; bearish but not yet deeply oversold. Room exists for further downside toward low-30/high-20s before mean reversion pressure intensifies.
• Hourly RSI(14): oscillated ~35–45 through the day, briefly lifting toward mid-40s on bounces, failing to reach a bullish regime (>55). This favors selling rips rather than buying dips.
• MACD (Daily): below zero with a negative histogram; no bullish cross yet. MACD (Hourly): attempted a shallow turn midday, rolled back over into the close; momentum remains negative. Interpretation: Momentum stays negative; oversold risk is building but not extreme enough to preclude another leg down.

4. Volatility and ranges

• Daily ATR(14) (approx): 240–300 points after the early-Nov breakdown; intraday realized ranges continue to expand on selloffs.
• Hourly ATR(14): elevated (est. 35–50 points). Expect noisy, fast moves around key levels, especially into the weekend (liquidity pockets). Interpretation: Volatility expansion during downtrends tends to extend moves. Expect whipsaws near 3,210–3,235 and 3,135–3,075 with potential stop sweeps.

5. Bollinger Bands (Daily)

• 20-SMA ~3,464; assuming stdev ~240–260, the lower band sits near ~2,940–2,980. Current price ~3,170 is between midline and lower band, skewed toward the lower side but not tagged. There is room to drift lower without immediate band support. Interpretation: Not yet a lower-band “snap” condition; downside continuation remains plausible.

6. Fibonacci mapping (recent swing)

• Using the Nov 9–10 high ~3,656 and today’s intraday low ~3,074: • 23.6%: ~3,216 (today’s rejection zone) • 38.2%: ~3,298–3,300 • 50%: ~3,365 • 61.8%: ~3,431–3,435 Interpretation: Price is trapped below 23.6% at ~3,216, validating that 3,21–3,23k band as first-sell zone. If a squeeze occurs, 3,30–3,31k (38.2%) is next heavy supply.

7. Ichimoku (Daily and Hourly, approximate)

• Daily: Price is below Tenkan and Kijun and well under the cloud; Span A/B above → strong bearish regime. Kijun likely ~3.4k area; far overhead.
• Hourly: Price below Tenkan/Kijun; flat Kijun near ~3,210 frequently acts as a magnet for failed mean reversion before rejection. Interpretation: Reversions into Kijun/cloud resistance are short setups.

8. VWAP and volume profile (intraday)

• Session VWAP approximates the mid-3,18–3,20k area. Price repeatedly rejected above that band late session, indicating sellers defending VWAP and pushing value lower.
• Volume nodes: 3,20–3,22k shows heavy churn and rejection; 3,13–3,15k shows responsive buying but less sustained volume (fragile support). Below 3,12k, market is thin to 3,07k. Interpretation: Overhead VWAP nodes (3,20–3,22k) are attractive sell zones; thin air below 3,12k risks a quick liquidity sweep toward 3,07–3,06k.

9. Candlestick/price-action diagnostics

• 20:00–21:00 UTC: strong sell candle to 3,131 followed by a small-bodied rebound; 22:00 doji-ish bar. Classic pause after impulse down; typically resolves in the trend direction unless a forceful reclaim of the breakdown level (~3,210–3,220) occurs quickly.
• Repeated lower wicks near 3,13–3,16k show dip buyers, but lack of follow-through and repeated rejections into 3,21–3,25k show supply dominance.

10. Pattern read

• Intraday descending channel/bear flag: Multiple touches on the upper channel near 3,23–3,25k; breakdown to 3,13k; weak bounce. This favors a continuation move to retest 3,10–3,07k and potentially probe 3,06–3,00k liquidity if momentum persists.

11. Mean-reversion vs. momentum

• Z-score vs. 20D SMA: (3170–3464)/~250 ≈ -1.2σ; stretched but not extreme. Momentum signals stay dominant while below 3,216/3,230. Mean reversion likely only after a deeper flush or a clean reclaim of the 23.6% Fib and VWAP cluster.

12. Elliott wave (heuristic)

• The leg off 3,656 appears to be an impulsive 5-wave down with wave 4 failing near the 23.6–38.2% retracement and a developing wave 5 probing new or equal lows (~3,07k). Completion likely near 3,06–3,00k; a bounce would then target 3,30–3,36k. Timing likely outside 24h unless volatility spikes.

13. Risk management and invalidation

• Bearish thesis holds while price remains below 3,216–3,235 (Fib 23.6%/VWAP/Kijun area). Strong invalidation on sustained reclaim of 3,298–3,305 (Fib 38.2%) and especially above ~3,365 (50% Fib), which would transition the intraday structure from distribution to repair.
• Expected 24h range: 3,060–3,260 with a bearish bias. High-probability magnets: 3,210–3,230 (sell), 3,075–3,065 (take-profit zone), with a tail risk of 2,990–3,000 on a liquidity break.

14. Synthesis and 24h directional call

• Multi-timeframe trend: bearish. Momentum: bearish. Reversion attempts failing under confluence resistance (VWAP/23.6%/Kijun). Volume favors sell-the-rip. Supports are being tested more frequently than resistances, a hallmark of downtrends.
• Probability-weighted path (next 24h): • Base case (55%): Bounce to 3,210–3,230, rejection, drive to 3,090–3,070; possible spike to 3,060 then rebound. • Alternative (35%): Stronger squeeze to 3,295–3,305 (38.2%), meets supply and fades back to 3,140–3,100. • Low-probability (10%): Breakdown through 3,060 toward 2,990–3,000 before a sharp mean-reversion bounce. Conclusion: Favor shorting a controlled bounce into 3,21–3,23k with a take profit near the 3,07k shelf.

Trade plan (tactical)

• Direction: Sell (Short).
• Optimal entry: 3,216 (within the 3,210–3,230 supply/VWAP/Fib 23.6% cluster) to improve reward vs. shorting at market.
• Take profit (24h target): 3,078 (above the 3,074–3,063 demand to front-run bids and avoid missing fills).
• Invalidation (not an order, for context): sustained move >3,298–3,305 would warn of a larger squeeze; above ~3,365 invalidates the 24h short idea.

Bottom line: Sell a pop into 3,21–3,23k; target ~3,08k within 24 hours. If no bounce, a breakdown entry on a retest failure of 3,150 can also work but with tighter risk controls.